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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UkraineUkraine Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 47.1B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 47.1B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6B from August's 48.7B reading. The reading matched the 49B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.6B. Over the past 3 months, Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 48.56B, vs 47.82B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.1
Actual
49
Consensus
48.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.28 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 48.05
Actual: 47.1
Error: +0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Ukraine) was reported at 47.10 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 49.00 billion by 1.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.56 billion, ranging from 45.70 billion to 57.70 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.63 billion, down from the prior three at 49.40 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.17 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.79 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Foreign Exchange Reserves has averaged 44.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.28 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Foreign Exchange Reserves - UA
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About Foreign Exchange Reserves — Ukraine
DEFINITION
Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the amount of foreign currency held by a country's central bank. These reserves are used to maintain stability in the country's currency and to fulfill international payment obligations. They serve as a measure of a country's economic strength and ability to withstand external shocks. Foreign Exchange Reserves are an important financial indicator for investors and policymakers, providing insight into a country's monetary policy and its ability to manage its currency.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 47.1 B, consensus 49 B. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 47.1 B. Before that (Sep 2026): 47.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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