Ukraine Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Ukraine’s November 2025 inflation rate rose sharply to 0.90% MoM, tripling October’s 0.30% and far exceeding the 0.10% consensus. This surge marks a notable acceleration compared to the 12-month average of 0.50%. Key drivers include rising food and energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Monetary policy faces renewed pressure as the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) weighs tightening options. Fiscal deficits and external shocks compound inflation risks, while financial markets reacted swiftly with UAH depreciation and rising bond yields. Structural inflationary pressures persist, suggesting a cautious outlook with balanced upside and downside risks.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Ukraine, released on November 10, 2025, reveals a significant month-on-month (MoM) increase of 0.90%. This figure sharply contrasts with the previous month’s 0.30% and the market consensus of 0.10%, signaling renewed inflationary pressures. Over the past year, Ukraine’s inflation has averaged approximately 0.50% MoM, underscoring the recent acceleration.
Drivers this month
- Food prices surged by 1.20% MoM, driven by supply chain disruptions and seasonal factors.
- Energy costs rose 1.50% MoM amid geopolitical tensions affecting gas imports.
- Core inflation components excluding volatile food and energy increased 0.40% MoM.
Policy pulse
The inflation rate now sits above the NBU’s target range of 5% annualized, implying a monthly target near 0.40%. The 0.90% print suggests the central bank may consider tightening monetary policy sooner than expected to anchor inflation expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) weakened 0.70% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting heightened inflation risk premiums.
Ukraine’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth remains modest at 2.10% YoY, constrained by ongoing conflict and reconstruction costs. Unemployment stands at 9.30%, slightly elevated but stable. Wage growth accelerated to 1.10% MoM, contributing to demand-pull inflation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of Ukraine has maintained a policy rate of 12.50% since September 2025. However, the inflation surge pressures the NBU to consider hikes. Credit growth slowed to 0.30% MoM, reflecting tighter lending standards and cautious business sentiment.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits remain elevated at 5.80% of GDP due to increased defense and social spending. The government’s borrowing needs have pushed yields higher, complicating debt servicing amid inflationary pressures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ukraine continues to face external shocks from regional instability and energy supply disruptions. Recent sanctions and trade barriers have exacerbated import costs, feeding into inflation. The ongoing conflict in eastern regions remains a key risk factor.
Drivers this month
- Food inflation contribution: 0.35 percentage points
- Energy inflation contribution: 0.40 percentage points
- Core inflation excluding volatile items: 0.15 percentage points
Policy pulse
The inflation print surpasses the NBU’s monthly target by more than double, increasing the likelihood of a policy rate hike in the December meeting. Market expectations now price a 25-50 basis point increase with a 65% probability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The UAH depreciated sharply, while inflation-linked bonds saw increased demand, pushing breakeven inflation rates higher. The 2-year yield curve steepened, reflecting inflation risk repricing.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in monthly inflation, reversing the mid-year dip. The sustained rise in food and energy prices is driving inflation above the central bank’s comfort zone, signaling tightening monetary policy ahead.
Looking ahead, Ukraine’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario projects inflation moderating to 0.60% MoM by Q1 2026 as supply chains stabilize and fiscal consolidation progresses. This scenario holds a 50% probability.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing energy costs.
- Monetary tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
- Stronger currency supports import price stability.
Bearish scenario (30% probability)
- Conflict intensifies, disrupting supply chains further.
- Fiscal deficits widen, fueling demand-pull inflation.
- Monetary policy lags, allowing inflation to spiral above 1.20% MoM.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Ukraine faces persistent structural inflation drivers, including rebuilding costs, demographic shifts, and integration into global markets. Long-term inflation is expected to stabilize near 5% annualized, contingent on reforms and geopolitical stability.
The November 2025 inflation surge in Ukraine underscores the fragile balance between economic recovery and inflation control. Policymakers must navigate complex fiscal and monetary trade-offs amid external shocks and structural challenges. Financial markets have already priced in increased inflation risk, reflected in currency weakness and rising yields. Vigilance and timely policy responses will be crucial to prevent inflation from undermining growth prospects.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Ukraine’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. The following tradable symbols have historically shown strong correlations with inflation movements in Ukraine, making them key instruments for traders and investors monitoring inflation trends.
- USDUAH – The USD/UAH currency pair reacts sharply to inflation surprises, reflecting currency risk and monetary policy expectations.
- UX – Ukraine’s main stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and economic growth outlook.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often serves as an inflation hedge, with price movements influenced by inflation data globally.
- MSFT – A global tech giant whose stock price can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts linked to inflation trends.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair is a barometer for global monetary policy shifts triggered by inflation data.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. USDUAH Since 2020
Since 2020, Ukraine’s monthly inflation rate and the USDUAH exchange rate have exhibited a positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with UAH depreciation against the USD, reflecting inflation-driven currency risk. For example, spikes in inflation during 2024 and 2025 corresponded with sharp USD/UAH rallies, underscoring inflation’s role in shaping currency market dynamics.
| Year | Average Inflation MoM (%) | USDUAH Average Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.70 | 27.50 |
| 2021 | 0.60 | 28.10 |
| 2022 | 1.10 | 29.80 |
| 2023 | 0.90 | 30.50 |
| 2024 | 0.50 | 31.20 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 0.60 | 31.80 |
FAQs
- What does the latest Ukraine Inflation Rate MoM indicate?
- The 0.90% MoM inflation rate in November 2025 indicates accelerating price pressures, driven mainly by food and energy costs, signaling potential monetary tightening.
- How does this inflation reading compare historically?
- This is the highest monthly inflation since April 2025’s 1.50%, reversing a mid-year dip and exceeding the 12-month average of 0.50% MoM.
- What are the macroeconomic implications of rising inflation in Ukraine?
- Higher inflation pressures the central bank to raise rates, complicates fiscal management, weakens the currency, and may dampen economic growth if unchecked.
Final takeaway: Ukraine’s inflation surge to 0.90% MoM in November 2025 signals renewed macroeconomic challenges, demanding vigilant policy action to balance growth and price stability.
USDUAH – Currency pair reflecting inflation-driven exchange rate volatility in Ukraine.
UX – Ukraine’s stock index sensitive to inflation and economic growth.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as a global inflation hedge impacting investor sentiment.
MSFT – Global tech stock reflecting risk sentiment shifts linked to inflation.
EURUSD – Major currency pair influenced by global inflation and monetary policy trends.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 0.90% MoM marks a sharp rise from October’s 0.30% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.50%. This acceleration reverses the mild easing observed in August and September, when inflation briefly dipped to -0.20% MoM.
Comparing historical data, the April 2025 peak of 1.50% MoM remains the highest monthly inflation in the past year, but the current print signals a renewed upward trend. The volatility in food and energy prices largely explains these fluctuations.