Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Ukraine, released on November 10, 2025, shows a year-on-year (YoY) inflation rate of 10.90%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure is below market expectations of 11.00% and marks a notable decline from October’s 11.90%. The inflation rate has steadily decreased from a peak of 15.10% in May 2025, reflecting easing price pressures amid ongoing economic adjustments.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed 0.25 percentage points (pp), down from 0.45 pp in October.
- Food inflation eased to 0.40 pp, reflecting improved supply chains.
- Core inflation excluding volatile items remained sticky at 8.20% YoY.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate remains above the National Bank of Ukraine’s 5% target but shows progress toward convergence. The central bank’s key policy rate stands at 14.50%, unchanged since September, signaling a cautious approach to avoid stalling growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields fell 12 basis points, reflecting eased inflation concerns.
Ukraine’s inflation trajectory must be viewed alongside key macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 3.10% YoY, supported by stronger domestic demand and export recovery. Unemployment remains elevated at 9.80%, limiting wage-driven inflation pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The National Bank of Ukraine has maintained a tight monetary stance since mid-2025, with the policy rate steady at 14.50%. Credit growth slowed to 4.50% YoY, reflecting cautious lending amid geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation expectations for 2026 have moderated to 7.50%, down from 9.00% six months ago.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have improved the government’s budget deficit to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 5.20% in Q1. Reduced subsidies and improved tax collection have helped contain inflationary pressures from public spending.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine and regional tensions continue to disrupt supply chains and energy imports. Recent sanctions on key trading partners have elevated input costs, limiting the pace of inflation decline.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices: 0.25 pp (down from 0.45 pp in October)
- Food & beverages: 0.40 pp (down from 0.60 pp)
- Services inflation: steady at 0.35 pp
Policy pulse
The inflation print supports the central bank’s decision to pause rate hikes for now. The current rate is consistent with a gradual disinflation path toward the 5% target over the next 18-24 months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The UAH appreciated 0.30% against the USD, while 2-year yields declined by 12 basis points, reflecting market confidence in inflation stabilization.
This chart confirms a clear downward trend in inflation since mid-2025, reversing the sharp increases seen in early 2025. The data suggests inflationary pressures are easing but remain above target, requiring continued vigilance.
Looking ahead, Ukraine’s inflation outlook balances multiple factors. The baseline scenario projects inflation falling to 7.00% by mid-2026, supported by stable monetary policy and improving fiscal discipline. However, risks remain skewed to the downside.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting supply chains and energy imports.
- Stronger currency appreciation reduces import costs.
- Inflation falls below 5% by late 2026, enabling policy easing.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Gradual disinflation to 7% by mid-2026.
- Monetary policy remains tight but stable.
- Fiscal consolidation continues, supporting macro stability.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Renewed geopolitical shocks disrupt energy supplies.
- Currency volatility triggers imported inflation spikes.
- Inflation remains above 10% through 2026, forcing further tightening.
Ukraine’s November 2025 inflation reading of 10.90% YoY marks a positive step in the disinflation process. The data reflects the combined impact of tighter monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and easing commodity prices. However, structural inflation drivers and geopolitical risks remain significant headwinds. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid uncertain external conditions.
Financial markets have responded favorably but remain cautious, pricing in a gradual normalization of inflation and interest rates. Continued monitoring of core inflation and external shocks will be critical in shaping the policy trajectory in 2026.
Overall, the inflation outlook for Ukraine is cautiously optimistic, with a path toward the central bank’s 5% target achievable but contingent on geopolitical stability and sustained macroeconomic discipline.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Ukraine’s inflation data influences a range of financial markets, from currency pairs to equities and bonds. Inflation trends affect monetary policy expectations, currency valuation, and investor sentiment. Below are key tradable symbols historically sensitive to Ukraine’s inflation dynamics.
- USDUAH – The USD/UAH exchange rate is directly impacted by inflation and monetary policy shifts in Ukraine.
- UX – Ukraine’s stock index reflects economic growth prospects and inflation-driven cost pressures.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge and alternative asset amid currency volatility.
- EURUAH – The euro to hryvnia pair reacts to inflation and geopolitical developments affecting trade.
- ATX – The Austrian Traded Index can be sensitive to regional inflation and economic spillovers impacting Ukraine’s neighbors.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. USDUAH Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Ukraine’s inflation rate and the USD/UAH exchange rate have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation coincide with hryvnia depreciation, reflecting imported inflation pressures and monetary tightening. The recent disinflation trend since mid-2025 has supported a 5% appreciation of the hryvnia against the USD, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation dynamics.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate YoY for Ukraine?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for Ukraine is 10.90% as of November 2025, down from 11.90% in October.
- How does Ukraine’s inflation affect monetary policy?
- Higher inflation pressures prompt the National Bank of Ukraine to maintain elevated policy rates, while easing inflation may allow gradual rate cuts.
- What are the main risks to Ukraine’s inflation outlook?
- Geopolitical tensions, energy supply disruptions, and currency volatility remain key downside risks to inflation stabilization.
Takeaway: Ukraine’s inflation is on a clear downward path but remains elevated. Continued macroprudential vigilance and geopolitical stability are essential for a sustained return to price stability.
USDUAH – Ukrainian hryvnia exchange rate sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
UX – Ukraine’s stock index reflecting economic growth and inflation pressures.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge amid currency volatility.
EURUAH – Euro to hryvnia pair reacting to inflation and geopolitical risks.
ATX – Austrian Traded Index sensitive to regional inflation spillovers.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 10.90% YoY compares favorably to October’s 11.90% and is well below the 12-month average of 13.30%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, signaling a sustained disinflation trend after the sharp spike earlier in the year.
Monthly inflation slowed to 0.70% in November, down from 1.10% in October, driven by easing food and energy prices. Core inflation remains elevated but stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are moderating but not yet fully contained.