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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda Balance of Trade climbed to -304.1M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Uganda Balance of Trade climbed to -304.1M in April 2026, released June 2026, up 58.6M from March's -362.7M reading. The print exceeded the -420M consensus by 115.9M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -482.77M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -350.6M, vs -409.7M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-304.1
Actual
-420
Consensus
-362.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±165.77 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -420
Actual: -304.1
Error: -115.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Uganda) was reported at -304.10 million in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -420.00 million by 115.90 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -362.70 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -480.31 million, ranging from -798.20 million to -134.90 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -313.63 million, up from the prior three at -455.10 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 170.99 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 138.55 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -378.90 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 165.78 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - UG
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About Balance of Trade — Uganda
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -304.1 M, consensus -420 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -352.1 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -349.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.