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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda Balance of Trade fell to -323.6M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Uganda Balance of Trade fell to -323.6M in May 2026, released July 2026, down 23.6M from April's -300M reading. The reading matched the -330M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -465.12M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -335.1M, vs -409.7M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-323.6
Actual
-330
Consensus
-300
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±145.31 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -272.05
Actual: -323.6
Error: +51.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Uganda) was reported at -323.60 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -330.00 million by 6.40 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -300.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -466.06 million, ranging from -798.20 million to -134.90 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -254.20 million, up from the prior three at -501.30 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 169.14 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 144.19 million).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 145.31 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - UG
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About Balance of Trade — Uganda
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -323.6 M, consensus -330 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -304.1 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -352.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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