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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Forecast data unavailable for this horizon.
— insufficient model data
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backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · 38.3% over 81 windows → full record
Across 81 graded 14-day windows since 27 Jul 2026, USD/UGX's expected-range band contained price 38.3% of the time (stated rate: 80%).
As of October 30, 2026, USD/UGX is trading at 4323.6428. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The USD/UGX forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Ugandan Shilling. The USD/UGX pair closed at 4,313.27 on October 30, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.96% from the previous close of 4,355.13.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 8.84%, ranging between 3,916.16 and 4,512.99. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 4,229.91. The 14-day RSI stands at 60.9, in the upper part of its range.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.30%, reflecting typical price variability for this pair. Over the past 52 weeks, USD/UGX traded between 3,434.60 (Jan 21, 2026) and 4,512.99 (Oct 27, 2026); the current price sits 4.4% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 1.30% runs elevated for this pair, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. USD/UGX is currently trading 1.97% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 60.9, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (IL) (r=+0.96), Budget Balance (IL) (r=+0.92)
Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) (r=-0.98), Russian Forex Intervention (RU) (r=-0.91), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (SA) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AZ) (r=-0.89), Business Confidence (RU) (r=-0.88)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.