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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda Business Confidence fell to 54.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Uganda Business Confidence fell to 54.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.0% from May's 56.4% reading. The reading missed the 57.4% consensus by 3.0%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 56.27%, vs 56.75% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
54.4
Actual
57.4
Consensus
56.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 58.75
Actual: 54.4
Error: +4.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Uganda) was reported at 54.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 57.4% by 3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 56.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 57.04%, ranging from 54.4% to 59.2% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 56.31%, up from the prior three at 56.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.46%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.73%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.24%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - UG
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About Business Confidence — Uganda
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 54.4 %, consensus 57.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 56.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 55.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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