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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda Business Confidence climbed to 56.7% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Uganda Business Confidence climbed to 56.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.5% from April's 55.2% reading. The print exceeded the 54.0% consensus by 2.7%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 2.3%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 56.83%, vs 56.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
56.7
Actual
54
Consensus
55.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 54.42
Actual: 56.7
Error: -2.29
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Uganda) was reported at 56.7% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54% by 2.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 55.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 57.28%, ranging from 55% to 59.2% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 57.74%, up from the prior three at 55.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.71%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 57.89%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.08%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Confidence - UG
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About Business Confidence — Uganda
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 56.7 %, consensus 54 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 55.83 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 57.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.