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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE Consumer Credit fell to 1.91B in September 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom BoE Consumer Credit fell to 1.91B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.77B from August's 2.68B reading. The reading missed the 2.2B consensus by 0.29B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.8B. Over the past 3 months, BoE Consumer Credit averaged 2.24B, vs 1.78B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.914
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.683
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.39
Actual: 1.91
Error: +0.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE Consumer Credit (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.91 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.20 billion by 0.29 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.68 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.83 billion, ranging from 1.12 billion to 2.46 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.13 billion, up from the prior three at 1.78 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.32 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, BoE Consumer Credit has averaged 1.51 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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BoE Consumer Credit - UK
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About BoE Consumer Credit — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
BoE Consumer Credit is a financial indicator that measures the amount of credit that consumers in the United Kingdom are using. It is published by the Bank of England and provides insight into the borrowing habits of individuals and households, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can indicate potential changes in consumer spending and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.914 M, consensus 2.2 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.464 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.006 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |