Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Car Production YoY climbed to -0.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Car Production YoY climbed to -0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from March's -0.8% reading. The reading missed the 13.5% consensus by 14.2%. Car Production YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Car Production YoY averaged -6.57%, vs 1.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.7
Actual
13.5
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±16.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.45
Actual: -0.7
Error: +6.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Car Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 13.5% by 14.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.59%, ranging from -27% to 17.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.53%, up from the prior three at -6.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.53%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 12.59%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Car Production YoY has averaged -7.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 16.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Car Production YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Car Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Car Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of cars produced by a company or industry over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the growth or decline in car production and can provide valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the automotive sector. It is often used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about investments, market trends, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -0.7 %, consensus 13.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -17.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |