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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Car Production YoY fell to -10.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Car Production YoY fell to -10.6% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 9.4% from June's -1.2% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 11.6%. Car Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-10.6
Actual
1
Consensus
-1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: -10.6
Error: +11.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Car Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -10.6% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 11.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -8.9%, ranging from -27% to 17.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -4.17%, down from the prior three at -0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.92%) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.21%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Car Production YoY has averaged -3.45%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Car Production YoY - UK
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About Car Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Car Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of cars produced by a company or industry over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the growth or decline in car production and can provide valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the automotive sector. It is often used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about investments, market trends, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -10.6 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |