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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Car Production YoY fell to -1.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Car Production YoY fell to -1.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 4.4% from May's 3.2% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -6.11%. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±14.9 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -7.6
Actual: -1.2
Error: -6.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Car Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.11%, ranging from -27% to 17.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.2%, down from the prior three at -1.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.62%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 12.53%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Car Production YoY has averaged -11.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 14.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Jul 31) and Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Car Production YoY - UK
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About Car Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Car Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of cars produced by a company or industry over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the growth or decline in car production and can provide valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the automotive sector. It is often used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about investments, market trends, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1.2 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.45 | Medium | |