Key Takeaways: UK car production fell 8.2% YoY in January, sharply reversing December’s 17.7% surge. The sector’s volatility continues, with output now below the 12-month trend. Market sentiment turned cautious as supply chain and demand headwinds persist.

UK Car Production YoY Drops 8.2% in January: Volatility Returns

UK car production posted a year-over-year decline of 8.2% in January 2026, according to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. This marks a significant reversal from December’s 17.7% gain and places output below the recent 12-month average. The sector’s performance continues to oscillate amid ongoing supply chain and demand challenges.

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Export demand: -5.1pp
Domestic sales: -2.3pp
Supply chain disruptions: -0.8pp

Policy pulse

Car production’s contraction stands in contrast to the Bank of England’s target for broader industrial output stability. The latest reading underscores sector-specific weakness rather than a systemic manufacturing downturn.

Market lens

Equities in UK auto and parts sectors retreated on the release. Investors responded to the abrupt swing from December’s double-digit growth to January’s contraction, with risk appetite subdued and sector rotation evident.

Foundational Indicators

Drivers this month

January 2026 YoY: -8.2%
December 2025 YoY: 17.7%
November 2025 YoY: -14.3%
12-month average: -9.35%
Best print (Apr 2025): 17.1%
Worst print (Jun 2025): -32.8%

Policy pulse

The Bank of England’s monetary stance remains unchanged, as car production is not a direct policy lever. However, persistent sector volatility could influence broader industrial sentiment if sustained.

Market lens

Bond yields edged lower as investors sought safety. The negative print reinforced defensive positioning, with market participants watching for spillover into related manufacturing indices.

Chart Dynamics

January’s car production YoY fell to -8.2%, down sharply from December’s 17.7% and well below the 12-month average of -9.35%. This marks the largest month-over-month swing since June 2025, when output dropped from -15.8% to -32.8%.

Recent volatility is evident: November’s -14.3% was followed by December’s surge, only to reverse again in January. The sector has not posted two consecutive positive months since early 2025.

Car Production YoY trend (Apr 2025–Jan 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights erratic swings in UK car production, with January’s contraction erasing December’s gains. Directionally, the sector remains below its 12-month trend, reflecting persistent instability and heightened sensitivity to external shocks.

Forward Outlook

Drivers this month

Export orders: subdued
Inventory levels: elevated
Labour disruptions: minimal

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20–30%): Rapid export recovery and easing supply constraints drive a return to positive YoY growth in Q2.
Base (50–60%): Output remains volatile, fluctuating near the recent average as demand and supply headwinds persist.
Bearish (15–25%): Further declines if global demand weakens or new supply shocks emerge.

Market lens

Currency markets showed muted reaction. GBP traded in a narrow range, with traders awaiting broader industrial data before repositioning.

Data source: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, Sigmanomics database. Methodology: YoY percentage change, seasonally adjusted.

Closing Thoughts

Drivers this month

Export softness
Inventory overhang
Supply chain normalization

Market lens

Sector sentiment remains fragile. Investors and manufacturers alike are bracing for continued volatility, with attention focused on upcoming trade and production releases for further direction.

Key Markets Reacting to Car Production YoY

UK car production’s sharp YoY decline in January has rippled across multiple asset classes. Equity investors trimmed exposure to auto manufacturers, while currency and bond markets responded with caution. The following symbols have shown notable correlation or sensitivity to shifts in UK car production trends.

AAPL: Apple’s UK supply chain exposure means production swings can affect component demand and logistics costs.
EURUSD: The euro-pound dynamic reflects broader European manufacturing sentiment, with car output data influencing cross-border trade flows.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk-on/risk-off profile has shown inverse correlation to industrial volatility in recent quarters.

Year	Car Production YoY (%)	AAPL Performance (%)
2020	-29.3	81.0
2021	-6.7	34.0
2022	-9.8	-26.8
2023	6.1	48.2
2024	-2.5	49.5
2025	-9.4	32.1
2026 YTD	-8.2	n/a

Since 2020, AAPL’s annual performance has shown periods of both positive and negative correlation with UK car production YoY, reflecting the complex interplay between global tech demand and industrial output cycles.

FAQ

What does the latest UK Car Production YoY figure indicate?: The January 2026 reading shows an 8.2% year-over-year decline, reversing December’s strong growth and highlighting renewed sector volatility.
How does this result compare to recent months?: January’s -8.2% follows December’s 17.7% surge and November’s -14.3%, underscoring the sector’s ongoing instability.
What is the focus keyword for this report?: Car Production YoY

UK car production’s sharp January contraction signals persistent volatility and sector-specific headwinds.

Updated 2/27/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sigmanomics database, Car Production YoY, UK, accessed 2/27/26.
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, official car production statistics, January 2026 release.

Economic Calendar - UK Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-12	-10	-9	-8.83	Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.35	Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.59	6.62	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.40	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.12	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	44.5	46.4	47	47.23	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	7.2	3.4	1	3.08	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.9	53.92	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	53.7	53.9	53.93	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.1	1.5	1.4	1.52	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	5.9	6.1	3.8	4.67	Low
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.812	1.652	1.2	1.40	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.8	52	52.07	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.08	4.49	4.2	4.18	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.10	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	60	61.01	62.5	61.54	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.38	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.17	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	1	1.1	0.90	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-8.2	17.7	5.3	3.77	Low
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-19	-16	-16	-16.50	Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-17	-30	-43.00	Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-43	-17	-17	-30.00	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.9	54	53.6	53.70	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.50	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52	51.8	51.9	51.92	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.33	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52	51.8	51.5	51.57	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.5	53.52	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	30.4	-13.4	19	21.44	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	4.5	1.9	2.7	2.97	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	2	0.3	0.1	0.47	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.48	High
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-28	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	2.4	2.5	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.4	-0.4	-0.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.1	3.2	3	2.98	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	-0.63	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3	3.4	3	2.92	High
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.4	-0.5	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.2	3.9	3.75	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-0.2	0.5	0.9	0.80	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0	-0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	2.5	3.1	3.2	3.03	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.30	Low
07:00	UK	CPI	3	3.4	3	3.00	High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.6	2.7	22	22.30	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	52	82	-40	0.50	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.45	Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-2.7	1.6	0.5	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	0.5	1.3	1.2	1.63	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.25	Low
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-4.34	-11.33	-6	-6.24	Low
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-0.3	-0.3	-0.8	-0.98	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	0.5	2.3	1.6	2.00	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.9	1.3	-0.2	-0.13	Medium
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2	2.5	3.1	3.33	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.5	1.9	-0.3	0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.25	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-0.5	-0.8	0.5	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-10	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	2.3	1	1.3	1.25	Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1	0.3	0	0.30	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.38	Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.62	6.77	6.7	6.71	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	5	4	7	6.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	0	0	0	0.00	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	4	5	2	2.50	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	46.4	40.1	42.5	42.73	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.4	3.9	2	4.08	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	51.4	53.9	53.93	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	54	51.4	54.3	54.32	Low
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.8	50.6	51.6	51.67	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	-0.4	0.6	0.47	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	0.6	1.5	1.30	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	61.01	64.07	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.524	2.143	1.9	2.10	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.80	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.6	4.59	4.6	4.58	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.1	6.6	6.1	6.28	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	17.7	-14.3	6.7	5.17	Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.5	0.7	0.7	0.82	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.7	51.90	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50.6	50.8	50.82	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.5	51.60	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	-	51.4	51.7	51.72	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6	50.6	50.67	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-	-0.1	-0.2	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	0.6	0.8	1.07	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	0.7	0.50	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-0.2	-0.3	0.08	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-	-17	-17	-17.50	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-44	-57	-70.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-	-11.65	-15	-12.56	Low
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	-	-11.65	-13.5	-13.50	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-32	-28	-28.00	Medium
11:00	UK	CBI Business Optimism Index	-	-31	-27	-27.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	1.7	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	-	3.5	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.18	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.08	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-	1.1	1	0.90	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	-	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	-	0	0.1	0.10	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-	-0.4	0.2	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	-	3.4	3.3	3.13	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	-	3.8	3.7	3.55	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	-	0.3	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.03	High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.55	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-43	-38	-20	-25.25	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	82	-16	-25	15.50	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	17.9	20.1	20.5	20.80	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
12:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
07:00	UK	GDP 3-Month Avg	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	2.1	0.4	0.5	0.85	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	-11.46	-11.81	-9.1	-10.28	High
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-6.116	-6.531	-3.5	-3.74	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	0.4	-0.4	-0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	2.1	-0.2	-0.3	0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance	-23.71	-24.17	-20.4	-22.05	High
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-1.1	0.9	0.1	-0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.05	High
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-1.3	-1.2	-0.3	-0.80	Low
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-14	-14	-16	-15.83	Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	1	1.2	0.6	0.55	High
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.77	6.81	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.40	Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	40.1	39.4	40.1	40.33	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.4	51.2	52.1	52.13	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	51.4	51.3	52.1	52.12	Low
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.9	-1.6	-1	1.08	Low
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	64.53	65.01	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	2.077	1.713	1.1	1.30	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	6.6	5.9	5.2	6.08	Low
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.00	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.49	4.16	4.5	4.48	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.6	5.4	5.2	5.38	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50.6	50.2	51.2	51.27	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	0.6	1.8	1.2	1.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.03	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-	0.3	0.4	0.27	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	-	1.8	1.5	1.30	Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	1.5	1.30	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	-	3	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-1	0.6	0.97	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-	-1.1	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Current Account	-12.1	-21.2	-21.3	-16.70	Medium
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.30	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.25	High
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2.7	3.2	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	1.5	-1.7	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-37	-34	-34.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-11.65	-21.19	-10	-7.56	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	0.68	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.17	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.40	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-0.2	-0.8	0.2	0.57	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-17	-19	-18	-18.50	Medium
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-14.3	-23.8	-7.6	-9.13	Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	49	59	49	48.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	59	49	59	59.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	9	9	9	9.00	Medium
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-32	-37	-35	-35.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.4	-0.1	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.3	0	0.2	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.4	3.4	3.38	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.42	High
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.4	0.3	0	-0.20	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.15	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.22	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	0	0.1	0	0.00	Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	51.2	50.2	51.2	51.23	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	52.1	51.2	51.9	52.10	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.1	51.3	52	52.10	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	52.1	51.3	51.6	51.62	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.9	4.4	4.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	20.1	-3.9	22.3	22.60	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-38	-22	-40	-45.25	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Employment Change	-16	-22	-60	-19.50	High
Monday, December 15, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.2	50.2	48.2	48.27	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.1	51.2	51.6	51.63	Low