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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.3% from March's 0.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.29%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.5%, vs -0.4% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate MoM is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.85
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - UK
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.