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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.3% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.5%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at -0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include RICS House Price Balance (Aug 12) and Goods Trade Balance (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - UK
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.69) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | RICS House Price Balance | -33 | -31 | -35.50 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -18.66 | -20.5 | -24.11 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -7.14 | -9.3 | -12.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -1.044 | -3.6 | -6.73 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Business Investment YoY | -1.3 | -1 | -3.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1.8 | -2.5 | -1.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Orders YoY | -11.9 | 11.8 | 5.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.25 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Business Investment QoQ | 0.9 | -0.5 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.80 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |