Key Takeaways: UK core inflation rate fell sharply to -0.6% MoM in January 2026, reversing December’s 0.3% rise. This marks the steepest monthly drop since 2020, intensifying market focus on Bank of England policy direction.

UK Core Inflation Rate MoM: January 2026 Plunges to -0.6%

The UK’s core inflation rate registered a significant decline in January 2026, with the month-over-month figure dropping to -0.6%. This follows a 0.3% increase in December 2025 and signals a notable shift in underlying price pressures. The release, published on February 18, 2026, has prompted renewed scrutiny of the inflation trajectory and its implications for monetary policy.

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Services: -0.22pp
Recreation & culture: -0.15pp
Clothing & footwear: -0.09pp
Transport: -0.07pp

Policy pulse

January’s -0.6% reading stands well below the Bank of England’s 2% YoY inflation target, underscoring a rapid cooling in core price momentum.

Market lens

Sterling weakened immediately on the release, as traders recalibrated expectations for the pace of monetary tightening. Gilt yields slipped, reflecting a shift in inflation risk pricing and a possible reappraisal of the Bank’s near-term stance.

Foundational Indicators

Recent trend

January 2026: -0.6%
December 2025: 0.3%
November 2025: -0.2%
12-month average (Feb 2025–Jan 2026): 0.01%

Historical context

This is the largest monthly decline since at least October 2020, when readings hovered near zero. The last three months show a clear downward trend, with January’s drop accelerating the pace of disinflation.

Data source & methodology

Figures are sourced from the UK Office for National Statistics and Sigmanomics database[1]. The core inflation rate excludes volatile items such as energy and food, providing a clearer view of underlying price changes.

Chart Dynamics

January’s -0.6% print sharply contrasts with December’s 0.3% and the 12-month average of 0.01%. The latest figure marks a decisive break from the mild fluctuations seen through late 2025. Over the past six months, core inflation has oscillated between -0.2% and 0.3%, but January’s reading is the first to breach the -0.5% threshold since the pandemic period.

Compared to November’s -0.2%, the current drop is three times steeper. The abrupt reversal signals a potential inflection point in the inflation cycle, with underlying components broadly contributing to the decline.

Line chart showing UK Core Inflation Rate MoM from October 2025 (0.0%) to January 2026 (-0.6%), with a sharp drop in the latest month. — Core Inflation Rate MoM trend (Oct 2025–Jan 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a pronounced downward shift in core inflation, breaking from the previous range-bound pattern. The magnitude of January’s decline suggests broad-based disinflationary forces, raising questions about the durability of underlying demand and the outlook for price stability.

Forward Outlook

Scenario probabilities

Bullish (core rebounds above zero): 20–30%
Base case (core remains near zero): 50–60%
Bearish (further negative prints): 15–25%

Upside & downside risks

Upside risks include potential wage growth and supply chain normalization. Downside risks stem from weak consumer demand and persistent disinflation in services and goods.

Market lens

Interest rate futures shifted lower, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term tightening. Market participants are now focused on upcoming wage and retail sales data for confirmation of the disinflation trend.

Closing Thoughts

Key takeaways

January’s -0.6% core inflation rate marks the steepest monthly drop in over five years.
Three-month trend: 0.3% (Dec), -0.2% (Nov), -0.6% (Jan).
Market reaction: GBP and gilt yields both declined on the release.
Focus shifts to labor market and services inflation for next signals.

Policy pulse

The Bank of England faces renewed pressure to assess the persistence of disinflation. The latest data reinforce the case for a cautious approach to further tightening.

Key Markets Reacting to Core Inflation Rate MoM

UK core inflation’s sharp drop has rippled across global markets, with pronounced moves in forex, equities, and crypto. Traders are recalibrating exposure to GBP, UK-linked stocks, and risk assets as the inflation outlook shifts. Below, we highlight key symbols directly impacted by the latest data.

AAPL: Sensitive to global inflation trends and UK consumer demand shifts.
EURUSD: Moves as GBP volatility spills into major currency pairs.
BTCUSD: Reacts to macroeconomic surprises and shifting risk sentiment.

Year	Core Inflation MoM (%)	AAPL Price Trend
2020	Range: -0.4 to 0.2	Volatile, tracking global macro shifts
2021	Range: 0.0 to 0.3	Gradual uptrend, supported by recovery
2022	Range: -0.1 to 0.4	Mixed, with inflation-driven swings
2023–2025	Mostly stable near zero	Moderate gains, less inflation impact
2026 (Jan)	-0.6	Short-term pullback on UK data shock

This table illustrates how AAPL’s price action has historically tracked shifts in UK core inflation, with pronounced moves during periods of inflation volatility.

FAQ: UK Core Inflation Rate MoM: January 2026 Plunges to -0.6%

What is the UK Core Inflation Rate MoM for January 2026?: The UK Core Inflation Rate MoM for January 2026 is -0.6%, marking a sharp reversal from December’s 0.3%.
Why did the core inflation rate drop so sharply this month?: Broad-based declines in services, recreation, and clothing prices drove the steepest monthly drop in over five years.
How does this affect the Bank of England’s policy outlook?: The negative print intensifies scrutiny of the Bank’s next moves, with markets now pricing in a more cautious stance.

UK core inflation’s steep January drop signals a pivotal shift in the disinflation narrative.

Updated 2/18/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sigmanomics UK Core Inflation Rate MoM database, accessed 2/18/26.
UK Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Inflation datasets, January 2026 release.

Economic Calendar - UK Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-12	-10	-9	-8.83	Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.35	Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.59	6.62	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.40	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.12	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	44.5	46.4	47	47.23	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	7.2	3.4	1	3.08	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.9	53.92	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	53.7	53.9	53.93	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.1	1.5	1.4	1.52	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	5.9	6.1	3.8	4.67	Low
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.812	1.652	1.2	1.40	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.8	52	52.07	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.08	4.49	4.2	4.18	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.10	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	60	61.01	62.5	61.54	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.38	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.17	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	1	1.1	0.90	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-8.2	17.7	5.3	3.77	Low
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-19	-16	-16	-16.50	Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-17	-30	-43.00	Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-43	-17	-17	-30.00	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.9	54	53.6	53.70	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.50	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52	51.8	51.9	51.92	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.33	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52	51.8	51.5	51.57	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.5	53.52	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	30.4	-13.4	19	21.44	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	4.5	1.9	2.7	2.97	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	2	0.3	0.1	0.47	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.48	High
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-28	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	2.4	2.5	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.4	-0.4	-0.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.1	3.2	3	2.98	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	-0.63	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3	3.4	3	2.92	High
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.4	-0.5	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.2	3.9	3.75	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-0.2	0.5	0.9	0.80	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0	-0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	2.5	3.1	3.2	3.03	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.30	Low
07:00	UK	CPI	3	3.4	3	3.00	High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.6	2.7	22	22.30	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	52	82	-40	0.50	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.45	Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-2.7	1.6	0.5	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	0.5	1.3	1.2	1.63	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.25	Low
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-4.34	-11.33	-6	-6.24	Low
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-0.3	-0.3	-0.8	-0.98	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	0.5	2.3	1.6	2.00	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.9	1.3	-0.2	-0.13	Medium
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2	2.5	3.1	3.33	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.5	1.9	-0.3	0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.25	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-0.5	-0.8	0.5	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-10	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	2.3	1	1.3	1.25	Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1	0.3	0	0.30	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.38	Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.62	6.77	6.7	6.71	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	5	4	7	6.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	0	0	0	0.00	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	4	5	2	2.50	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	46.4	40.1	42.5	42.73	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.4	3.9	2	4.08	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	51.4	53.9	53.93	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	54	51.4	54.3	54.32	Low
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.8	50.6	51.6	51.67	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	-0.4	0.6	0.47	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	0.6	1.5	1.30	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	61.01	64.07	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.524	2.143	1.9	2.10	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.80	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.6	4.59	4.6	4.58	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.1	6.6	6.1	6.28	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	17.7	-14.3	6.7	5.17	Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.5	0.7	0.7	0.82	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.7	51.90	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50.6	50.8	50.82	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.5	51.60	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	-	51.4	51.7	51.72	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6	50.6	50.67	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-	-0.1	-0.2	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	0.6	0.8	1.07	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	0.7	0.50	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-0.2	-0.3	0.08	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-	-17	-17	-17.50	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-44	-57	-70.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-	-11.65	-15	-12.56	Low
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	-	-11.65	-13.5	-13.50	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-32	-28	-28.00	Medium
11:00	UK	CBI Business Optimism Index	-	-31	-27	-27.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	1.7	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	-	3.5	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.18	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.08	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-	1.1	1	0.90	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	-	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	-	0	0.1	0.10	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-	-0.4	0.2	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	-	3.4	3.3	3.13	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	-	3.8	3.7	3.55	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	-	0.3	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.03	High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.55	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-43	-38	-20	-25.25	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	82	-16	-25	15.50	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	17.9	20.1	20.5	20.80	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
12:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
07:00	UK	GDP 3-Month Avg	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	2.1	0.4	0.5	0.85	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	-11.46	-11.81	-9.1	-10.28	High
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-6.116	-6.531	-3.5	-3.74	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	0.4	-0.4	-0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	2.1	-0.2	-0.3	0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance	-23.71	-24.17	-20.4	-22.05	High
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-1.1	0.9	0.1	-0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.05	High
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-1.3	-1.2	-0.3	-0.80	Low
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-14	-14	-16	-15.83	Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	1	1.2	0.6	0.55	High
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.77	6.81	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.40	Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	40.1	39.4	40.1	40.33	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.4	51.2	52.1	52.13	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	51.4	51.3	52.1	52.12	Low
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.9	-1.6	-1	1.08	Low
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	64.53	65.01	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	2.077	1.713	1.1	1.30	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	6.6	5.9	5.2	6.08	Low
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.00	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.49	4.16	4.5	4.48	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.6	5.4	5.2	5.38	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50.6	50.2	51.2	51.27	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	0.6	1.8	1.2	1.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.03	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-	0.3	0.4	0.27	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	-	1.8	1.5	1.30	Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	1.5	1.30	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	-	3	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-1	0.6	0.97	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-	-1.1	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Current Account	-12.1	-21.2	-21.3	-16.70	Medium
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.30	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.25	High
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2.7	3.2	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	1.5	-1.7	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-37	-34	-34.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-11.65	-21.19	-10	-7.56	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	0.68	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.17	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.40	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-0.2	-0.8	0.2	0.57	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-17	-19	-18	-18.50	Medium
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-14.3	-23.8	-7.6	-9.13	Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	49	59	49	48.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	59	49	59	59.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	9	9	9	9.00	Medium
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-32	-37	-35	-35.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.4	-0.1	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.3	0	0.2	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.4	3.4	3.38	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.42	High
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.4	0.3	0	-0.20	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.15	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.22	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	0	0.1	0	0.00	Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	51.2	50.2	51.2	51.23	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	52.1	51.2	51.9	52.10	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.1	51.3	52	52.10	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	52.1	51.3	51.6	51.62	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.9	4.4	4.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	20.1	-3.9	22.3	22.60	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-38	-22	-40	-45.25	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Employment Change	-16	-22	-60	-19.50	High
Monday, December 15, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.2	50.2	48.2	48.27	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.1	51.2	51.6	51.63	Low