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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -20.97B in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -20.97B in July 2026, released September 2026, up 2.04B from June's -23.01B reading. The print exceeded the -22.3B consensus by 1.33B. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.27B. Over the past 3 months, Goods Trade Balance averaged -20.84B, vs -24.02B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-20.97
Actual
-22.3
Consensus
-23.01
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.39 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -21.69
Actual: -20.97
Error: -0.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -20.97 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -22.30 billion by 1.33 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -23.01 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -21.76 billion, ranging from -27.22 billion to -14.45 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -20.88 billion, up from the prior three at -22.57 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.40 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.45 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance has averaged -21.07 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.39 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of physical goods. It provides valuable insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate the strength of its economy. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -20.97 B, consensus -22.3 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -23.01 B. Before that (May 2026): -18.66 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |