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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -18.66B in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -18.66B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 5.92B from April's -24.58B reading. The print exceeded the -23.6B consensus by 4.94B. Goods Trade Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Goods Trade Balance averaged -26.63B, vs -18.65B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-18.66
Actual
-23.6
Consensus
-24.58
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.98 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -26.29
Actual: -18.66
Error: -7.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -18.66 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -23.60 billion by 4.94 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -24.58 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -21.80 billion, ranging from -27.22 billion to -14.45 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -23.98 billion, down from the prior three at -20.29 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.38 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.17 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance has averaged -19.42 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.98 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of physical goods. It provides valuable insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate the strength of its economy. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -18.66 B, consensus -23.6 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -26.05 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -27.22 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |