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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -26.05B in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance climbed to -26.05B in April 2026, released June 2026, up 1.17B from March's -27.22B reading. The reading missed the -22.5B consensus by 3.55B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -21.57B. Over the past 3 months, Goods Trade Balance averaged -23.01B, vs -20.29B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-26.05
Actual
-22.5
Consensus
-27.22
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.92 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -26.11
Actual: -26.05
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -26.05 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -22.50 billion by 3.55 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -27.22 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -22.08 billion, ranging from -27.22 billion to -14.45 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -22.57 billion, up from the prior three at -22.99 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.23 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.04 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance has averaged -22.96 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.92 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of physical goods. It provides valuable insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate the strength of its economy. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -26.05 B, consensus -22.5 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -27.22 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -18.79 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.