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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.1% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.4% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the -0.1% consensus. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product MoM is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.1% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Construction PMI (Jul 6) and Halifax House Price Index MoM (Jul 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - UK
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product MoM contracted by -0.100000% in May, matching estimates and reversing April’s 0.300000% expansion. This decline signals a slowdown after two months of growth, reflecting weakening economic momentum. Market focus will shift to upcoming data for further clarity on the Bank of England’s policy direction. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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