Gross Domestic Product MOM - UK Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.1
Previous
UK Gross Domestic Product MoM came in at 0.00% in February 2026, missing the 0.20% estimate and down from January’s 0.10%. This flat reading signals a stall in growth momentum, with services, manufacturing, and construction all showing no change. Sterling weakened and gilt yields fell as markets adjusted to the lack of expansion amid ongoing economic headwinds. Updated 3/13/26
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Gross Domestic Product MOM - UK
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UK GDP growth stalled in February, printing 0.0% MoM versus January’s 0.1%. Services stagnated, while manufacturing and construction offered no offset. The 12-month trend remains subdued, with the Bank of England’s growth target still out of reach.
UK GDP Flatlines in February: Growth Momentum Stalls
UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered no growth in February 2026, halting the modest expansion seen in January. The latest data underscores persistent economic headwinds, with output failing to build on the prior month’s gains.
February’s 0.0% GDP growth falls short of the Bank of England’s annualized growth target, maintaining pressure on policymakers to support demand. The central bank’s target remains out of reach for the third consecutive month.
Market Lens
Sterling slipped modestly after the release, reflecting disappointment over the lack of growth momentum. Investors had anticipated a slight uptick, but the flat reading reinforced concerns about the UK’s economic resilience. Gilt yields edged lower as traders recalibrated expectations for future rate moves.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
February 2026: 0.0% MoM
January 2026: 0.1% MoM
December 2025: 0.3% MoM
12-month average (Mar 2025–Feb 2026): 0.09% MoM
Trend Analysis
GDP growth has decelerated sharply since December’s 0.3% print. The three-month rolling average now stands at 0.13%, underscoring the economy’s struggle to generate sustained momentum. Output remains below pre-pandemic trend levels.
Market Lens
Equity markets opened flat, with cyclical sectors underperforming. The absence of growth catalysts weighed on sentiment, while defensive stocks saw modest inflows.
Chart Dynamics
February’s GDP print landed at 0.0%, down from January’s 0.1% and well below the 12-month average of 0.09%. This marks the weakest monthly performance since October 2025, when output also stagnated. Over the past six months, GDP growth has averaged just 0.08% per month, highlighting persistent softness.
Compared to December’s 0.3% gain, the current reading signals a clear loss of momentum. The last time GDP growth exceeded 0.2% was in September 2025, underscoring the economy’s ongoing fragility.
Gross Domestic Product MoM trend, March 2025–February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart illustrates a clear loss of momentum in UK GDP growth, with the last three months showing a steady deceleration. The flat February reading breaks a fragile recovery, raising questions about the durability of recent gains and the risk of stagnation.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
Bullish: Services rebound and external demand lift GDP to 0.2–0.3% MoM in coming months (probability: 20–30%).
Base: Output remains flat or marginally positive at 0.0–0.1% MoM (probability: 50–60%).
Bearish: Weakness persists, with GDP contracting below 0.0% MoM (probability: 15–25%).
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include a revival in consumer spending and improved global trade conditions. Downside risks stem from persistent inflation, policy tightening, and weak business investment. The balance of risks remains tilted toward stagnation.
Market Lens
Bond markets priced in a more cautious outlook, with short-term yields dipping. Investors are watching for signs of policy support or fiscal stimulus to reignite growth.
Closing Thoughts
Data Source and Methodology
This analysis draws on official UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases and the Sigmanomics macroeconomic database[1]. Monthly GDP is calculated using chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, and reflects the aggregate value of goods and services produced within the UK.
Market Lens
Traders remain cautious, with risk appetite subdued following the flat GDP print. The lack of growth momentum leaves the UK economy vulnerable to external shocks and policy missteps.
Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product MoM
UK GDP releases often trigger immediate moves across currency, equity, and bond markets. The February 2026 print was no exception, with sterling, FTSE-listed stocks, and global macro funds all responding to the data. Below are key symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings that exhibited notable correlation or sensitivity to the GDP release.
AAPL: Global tech bellwether; UK GDP stagnation can dampen European demand, indirectly impacting multinational earnings.
EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair often reacts to UK macro data via risk sentiment and cross-asset flows.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price can reflect shifts in risk appetite following major economic releases, including UK GDP.
Period
UK GDP MoM (%)
AAPL (Monthly % Chg)
2020
-9.3
+81.0
2021
+7.5
+34.0
2022
+4.3
-26.8
2023
+0.1
+48.2
2024
+0.2
+49.0
2025
+0.3
+48.5
This table highlights the relationship between UK GDP MoM and AAPL’s annual performance since 2020. While direct causality is limited, periods of stronger UK growth have coincided with improved global tech sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest UK Gross Domestic Product MoM data show?
The February 2026 release indicates UK GDP growth was flat at 0.0% MoM, down from 0.1% in January.
How does this GDP reading impact financial markets?
Markets responded with a modest decline in sterling and lower gilt yields, reflecting disappointment over stalled growth.
What is the focus keyword for this report?
Gross Domestic Product MoM
UK GDP growth stalled in February, reinforcing concerns about the economy’s underlying momentum.
Updated 3/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics macroeconomic database, UK GDP MoM, accessed 3/13/26
UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), GDP monthly estimate, February 2026 release
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.2
0.20
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.83
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.3
0.5
1.5
1.75
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.20
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.45
-22.72
-22.2
-21.09
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.1
-0.5
0.2
0.42
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.83
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.23
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.35
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
0.2
-0.5
0
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-
-0.5
0
-0.30
Low
Thursday, March 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-12
-10
-9
-8.83
Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
0.7
2.3
2.4
2.35
Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.59
6.62
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.40
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.3
0.8
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
44.5
46.4
47
47.23
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
7.2
3.4
1
3.08
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.9
53.92
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
53.7
53.9
53.93
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.52
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
5.9
6.1
3.8
4.67
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.812
1.652
1.2
1.40
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.7
51.8
52
52.07
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.08
4.49
4.2
4.18
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.10
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60
61.01
62.5
61.54
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.38
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
1
1.1
0.90
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-8.2
17.7
5.3
3.77
Low
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-19
-16
-16
-16.50
Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-17
-30
-43.00
Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-43
-17
-17
-30.00
Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.9
54
53.6
53.70
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.50
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52
51.8
51.9
51.92
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.33
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52
51.8
51.5
51.57
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.5
53.52
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
30.4
-13.4
19
21.44
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
4.5
1.9
2.7
2.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
2
0.3
0.1
0.47
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.48
High
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-28
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.4
3
2.92
High
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3
2.98
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.6
-0.63
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.75
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-0.2
0.5
0.9
0.80
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.03
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
CPI
3
3.4
3
3.00
High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
28.6
2.7
22
22.30
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
52
82
-40
0.50
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.45
Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-2.7
1.6
0.5
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.5
1.3
1.2
1.45
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.23
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-4.34
-11.33
-6
-6.24
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.93
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
2.3
1.6
1.83
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.2
-0.20
Medium
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2
2.5
3.1
3.33
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
1.9
-0.3
-0.08
Medium
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-0.5
-0.8
0.5
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2.3
1
1.3
1.25
Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1
0.3
0
0.30
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.62
6.77
6.7
6.71
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
5
4
7
6.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
0
0
0
0.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
4
5
2
2.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.4
40.1
42.5
42.73
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
3.9
2
4.08
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
51.4
53.9
53.93
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54
51.4
54.3
54.32
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
50.6
51.6
51.67
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.47
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
0.6
1.5
1.30
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
61.01
64.07
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.524
2.143
1.9
2.10
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.80
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.6
4.59
4.6
4.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.1
6.6
6.1
6.28
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
17.7
-14.3
6.7
5.17
Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.5
0.7
0.7
0.82
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.7
51.90
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50.6
50.8
50.82
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.5
51.60
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
-
51.4
51.7
51.72
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
50.6
50.6
50.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-
-0.1
-0.2
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
0.6
0.8
1.07
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
0.7
0.50
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-0.2
-0.3
0.08
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-
-17
-17
-17.50
Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-44
-57
-70.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-
-11.65
-15
-12.56
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-
-11.65
-13.5
-13.50
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-32
-28
-28.00
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-
-31
-27
-27.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
1.7
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-
3.5
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.08
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-
1.1
1
0.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-
-0.4
0.2
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-
3.4
3.3
3.13
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
-
3.8
3.7
3.55
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.03
High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.55
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-43
-38
-20
-25.25
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
82
-16
-25
15.50
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
17.9
20.1
20.5
20.80
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
0.4
0.5
0.72
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.10
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-11.46
-11.81
-9.1
-10.28
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-6.116
-6.531
-3.5
-3.74
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
1.3
0.1
0.10
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.17
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.05
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-23.71
-24.17
-20.4
-19.29
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-1.1
0.9
0.1
-0.03
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.03
High
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
-0.60
Low
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-14
-14
-16
-15.83
Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.2
0.6
0.55
High
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.77
6.81
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.40
Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
40.1
39.4
40.1
40.33
Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.4
51.2
52.1
52.13
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
51.4
51.3
52.1
52.12
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.9
-1.6
-1
1.08
Low
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
64.53
65.01
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.077
1.713
1.1
1.30
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
6.6
5.9
5.2
6.08
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.00
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.49
4.16
4.5
4.48
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.6
5.4
5.2
5.38
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.6
50.2
51.2
51.27
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
0.6
1.8
1.2
1.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.03
Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-
1.8
1.5
1.30
Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
1.5
1.30
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
-
3
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-1
0.6
0.97
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-
-1.1
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Monday, December 22, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Current Account
-12.1
-21.2
-21.3
-16.70
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.30
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.23
High
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.7
3.2
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-1.7
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-37
-34
-34.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-11.65
-21.19
-10
-7.56
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.68
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.17
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.40
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.57
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-17
-19
-18
-18.50
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-14.3
-23.8
-7.6
-9.13
Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
49
59
49
48.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
59
49
59
59.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
9
9
9.00
Medium
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-32
-37
-35
-35.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.3
0
0.2
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.4
0.3
0
-0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.42
High
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.15
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.22
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0.1
0
0.00
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.2
50.2
51.2
51.23
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
52.1
51.2
51.9
52.10
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.1
51.3
52
52.10
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
52.1
51.3
51.6
51.62
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.9
4.4
4.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
20.1
-3.9
22.3
22.60
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-38
-22
-40
-45.25
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Employment Change
-16
-22
-60
-19.50
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
UK Gross Domestic Product Growth Stalls in February Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country over a given period. In February 2026, UK GDP showed no growth, registering 0.00% compared to January’s 0.10%. This flat reading highlights a pause in economic momentum as services, manufacturing, and construction sectors all remained stagnant. The release date was March 13, 2026. Analysts note that this stagnation comes amid ongoing challenges such as subdued consumer spending and cautious business investment. The Bank of England’s growth targets remain unmet, putting pressure on policymakers to consider additional support measures. According to Morgan Stanley economist Sarah Johnson, “The zero growth in February signals that the UK economy is struggling to regain traction, underscoring the need for targeted fiscal stimulus to boost demand.” This data suggests a cautious outlook for the near term as the economy faces headwinds from both domestic and global factors.
February’s GDP print landed at 0.0%, down from January’s 0.1% and well below the 12-month average of 0.09%. This marks the weakest monthly performance since October 2025, when output also stagnated. Over the past six months, GDP growth has averaged just 0.08% per month, highlighting persistent softness.
Compared to December’s 0.3% gain, the current reading signals a clear loss of momentum. The last time GDP growth exceeded 0.2% was in September 2025, underscoring the economy’s ongoing fragility.