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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 0.3% from May's 0.0% reading. The print exceeded the 0.0% consensus by 0.3%. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.0%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 71st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.3% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.08%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.29%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug 20) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - UK
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product MoM rose 0.300000% in July, beating the 0.000000% estimate and up from June's 0.100000%. This marks a clear acceleration in monthly growth, reversing the slight contraction seen in June's -0.100000%. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data for further confirmation of this positive momentum. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.25 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.75 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0 | -0.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.95 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | -40.50 | Medium | |
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -15.50 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY | 5.4 | 3.3 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | 0 | -1.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.5 | -0.85 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.5 | 51.85 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.1 | 51.8 | 49.90 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.6 | 50.05 | Low | |