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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from June's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.0% consensus by 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.12%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.27%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 9) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - UK
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product MoM for August rose 0.400000%, beating the 0.000000% estimate. This marks an increase from July’s 0.300000%, indicating continued economic expansion. Markets will watch for Bank of England signals amid this stronger growth. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.20 | Medium | |