Gross Domestic Product YOY - UK Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.7
Previous
UK Gross Domestic Product YoY growth slowed to 0.80% in February, missing the 0.90% consensus and down from January’s 1.00%. This marks the lowest reading since August 2025 and extends a four-month deceleration trend from the 12-month average of 1.22%. Market reaction was muted as the data confirms ongoing economic headwinds and supports the Bank of England’s cautious stance. Updated 3/13/26
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Gross Domestic Product YOY - UK
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UK GDP YoY growth slowed to 0.8% in February, down from 1.0% in January and below the 0.9% consensus estimate. The 12-month average stands at 1.22%. Services and construction were key contributors, while manufacturing lagged. Market reaction was muted as the figure aligns with a gradual deceleration trend.
UK GDP YoY: February Print Undershoots Consensus as Growth Momentum Eases
The latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY data, released March 13, 2026, shows economic growth decelerating to 0.8% in February. This marks a slowdown from January’s 1.0% and falls short of the 0.9% market estimate. The 12-month average remains higher at 1.22%[1].
The 0.8% YoY GDP growth remains well below the Bank of England’s medium-term target of 2.0%. Policymakers continue to signal caution as growth lags pre-pandemic norms.
Market lens
Sterling and FTSE 100 saw limited movement after the release. Investors had largely priced in a softer print, with the data reinforcing expectations for a subdued growth environment. Bond yields held steady as the reading confirmed a persistent slowdown.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February’s 0.8% YoY growth compares to 1.0% in January and 1.1% in December. The pace has slowed from 1.3% in November and 1.4% in both September and October 2025. The last time GDP growth was above 1.2% was August 2025, at 1.2%[1].
Sector breakdown
Services remain the primary engine, offsetting a drag from manufacturing. Construction activity provided a modest boost, while trade volumes were flat.
Methodology
The Office for National Statistics compiles GDP using output, expenditure, and income approaches, seasonally adjusted. Figures are subject to revision as more data becomes available.
Chart Dynamics
February’s GDP YoY print of 0.8% marks a further slowdown from January’s 1.0%, extending the downtrend from the 12-month average of 1.22%. The last six months show a steady loss of momentum: November at 1.3%, December at 1.1%, January at 1.0%, and now February at 0.8%. This is the lowest reading since August 2025. The gap between actual and consensus (0.9%) highlights persistent headwinds.
Gross Domestic Product YoY trend (Mar 2025–Feb 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The UK’s GDP growth trajectory has softened for four consecutive months, with February’s print undershooting both the prior month and consensus. This pattern signals persistent economic headwinds and a lack of broad-based recovery momentum.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish: Growth rebounds to 1.1–1.3% if services and construction accelerate (20–30% probability).
Base case: GDP stabilizes near 0.8–1.0% as current trends persist (55–65% probability).
Bearish: Further deceleration below 0.7% if manufacturing and trade weaken (10–20% probability).
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger consumer demand and fiscal support. Downside risks stem from global trade frictions and persistent inflationary pressures.
Data source
Data sourced from the Office for National Statistics and Sigmanomics database[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Markets showed little surprise as the GDP print matched the prevailing slowdown narrative. Investors remain cautious, with attention shifting to upcoming inflation and employment releases for further direction.
Policy pulse
The Bank of England faces a delicate balance: supporting growth without reigniting inflation. The latest GDP data reinforces a wait-and-see approach.
Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product YoY
UK GDP YoY figures influence a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The muted February reading prompted only modest moves, but the underlying trend remains a key input for market participants. Below are symbols with direct or indirect exposure to UK growth dynamics.
AAPL — Global tech earnings are sensitive to UK consumer and enterprise demand shifts.
EURUSD — Euro and dollar flows react to UK macro data, influencing cross-Atlantic risk sentiment.
BTCUSD — Crypto markets track global growth signals, with UK GDP prints shaping risk appetite.
Year
UK GDP YoY (%)
AAPL (YoY % Chg)
2020
-9.3
81.8
2021
7.5
34.0
2022
4.3
-26.8
2023
0.1
48.2
2024
0.6
49.0
2025
1.2
22.7
Since 2020, AAPL’s annual performance has shown only a loose correlation with UK GDP YoY, reflecting the global nature of tech earnings and the UK’s role as a major international market.
FAQ
What is the latest UK Gross Domestic Product YoY figure?
The UK GDP YoY growth rate for February is 0.8%, down from 1.0% in January and below the 0.9% consensus estimate.
How does the February GDP print compare to recent months?
February’s 0.8% reading continues a four-month deceleration trend, with the 12-month average at 1.22%.
What sectors contributed most to the latest GDP result?
Services and construction provided positive contributions, while manufacturing was a drag on overall growth.
UK GDP YoY growth slowed further in February, reinforcing a cautious outlook for the months ahead.
Updated 3/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics database, UK GDP YoY, accessed March 13, 2026.
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.2
0.20
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.83
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.3
0.5
1.5
1.75
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.20
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.45
-22.72
-22.2
-21.09
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.1
-0.5
0.2
0.42
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.83
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.23
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.35
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
0.2
-0.5
0
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-
-0.5
0
-0.30
Low
Thursday, March 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-12
-10
-9
-8.83
Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
0.7
2.3
2.4
2.35
Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.59
6.62
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.40
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.3
0.8
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
44.5
46.4
47
47.23
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
7.2
3.4
1
3.08
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.9
53.92
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
53.7
53.9
53.93
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.52
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
5.9
6.1
3.8
4.67
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.812
1.652
1.2
1.40
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.7
51.8
52
52.07
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.08
4.49
4.2
4.18
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.10
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60
61.01
62.5
61.54
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.38
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
1
1.1
0.90
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-8.2
17.7
5.3
3.77
Low
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-19
-16
-16
-16.50
Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-17
-30
-43.00
Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-43
-17
-17
-30.00
Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.9
54
53.6
53.75
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.60
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52
51.8
51.9
51.95
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.33
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52
51.8
51.5
51.57
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.5
53.52
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
30.4
-13.4
19
21.44
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
4.5
1.9
2.7
2.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
2
0.3
0.1
0.47
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.48
High
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-28
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3
2.98
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.4
3
2.92
High
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.6
-0.63
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.75
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-0.2
0.5
0.9
0.80
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.03
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
CPI
3
3.4
3
3.00
High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.13
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
28.6
2.7
22
23.00
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
52
82
-40
9.75
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.40
Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-2.7
1.6
0.5
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.5
1.3
1.2
1.45
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.23
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-4.34
-11.33
-6
-6.24
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.93
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
2.3
1.6
1.83
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.2
-0.20
Medium
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2
2.5
3.1
3.33
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
1.9
-0.3
-0.08
Medium
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-0.5
-0.8
0.5
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2.3
1
1.3
1.25
Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1
0.3
0
0.30
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.62
6.77
6.7
6.71
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
5
4
7
6.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
0
0
0
0.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
4
5
2
2.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.4
40.1
42.5
42.73
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
3.9
2
4.08
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
51.4
53.9
53.93
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54
51.4
54.3
54.32
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
50.6
51.6
51.67
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.47
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
0.6
1.5
1.30
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
61.01
64.07
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.524
2.143
1.9
2.10
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.80
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.6
4.59
4.6
4.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.1
6.6
6.1
6.28
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
17.7
-14.3
6.7
5.17
Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.5
0.7
0.7
0.82
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.7
52.00
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50.6
50.8
50.85
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.5
51.65
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
-
51.4
51.7
51.72
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
50.6
50.6
50.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-
-0.1
-0.2
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
0.6
0.8
1.07
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
0.7
0.50
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-0.2
-0.3
0.08
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-
-17
-17
-17.50
Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-44
-57
-70.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-
-11.65
-15
-12.56
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-
-11.65
-13.5
-13.50
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-32
-28
-28.00
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-
-31
-27
-27.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
1.7
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-
3.5
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.08
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-
1.1
1
0.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-
-0.4
0.2
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-
3.4
3.3
3.13
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
-
3.8
3.7
3.55
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.03
High
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.15
Medium
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.50
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.50
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-43
-38
-20
-31.50
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
82
-16
-25
24.75
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
17.9
20.1
20.5
21.50
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.13
High
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.10
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-11.46
-11.81
-9.1
-10.28
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-6.116
-6.531
-3.5
-3.74
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
1.3
0.1
0.10
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.17
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
0.4
0.5
0.72
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.05
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-23.71
-24.17
-20.4
-19.29
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-1.1
0.9
0.1
-0.03
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.03
High
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
-0.60
Low
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-14
-14
-16
-15.83
Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.2
0.6
0.55
High
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.77
6.81
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.40
Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
40.1
39.4
40.1
40.33
Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.4
51.2
52.1
52.13
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
51.4
51.3
52.1
52.12
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.9
-1.6
-1
1.08
Low
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
64.53
65.01
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.077
1.713
1.1
1.30
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
6.6
5.9
5.2
6.08
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.00
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.49
4.16
4.5
4.48
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.6
5.4
5.2
5.38
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.6
50.2
51.2
51.27
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
0.6
1.8
1.2
1.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.03
Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-
1.8
1.5
1.30
Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
1.5
1.30
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
-
3
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-1
0.6
0.97
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-
-1.1
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Monday, December 22, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Current Account
-12.1
-21.2
-21.3
-16.70
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.30
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.23
High
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.7
3.2
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-1.7
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-37
-34
-34.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-11.65
-21.19
-10
-7.56
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.68
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.17
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.40
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.57
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-17
-19
-18
-18.50
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-14.3
-23.8
-7.6
-9.13
Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
49
59
49
48.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
59
49
59
59.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
9
9
9.00
Medium
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-32
-37
-35
-35.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.3
0
0.2
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.42
High
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.4
0.3
0
-0.20
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.15
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.22
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0.1
0
0.00
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
UK Gross Domestic Product Growth Slows in February Report Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country over a year. The UK’s GDP growth slowed to 0.80% in February compared to 1.00% in January, falling short of the 0.90% forecast. This data was released on March 13, 2026. The slowdown reflects ongoing challenges in manufacturing, while services and construction sectors provided some support. Analysts note that this deceleration aligns with a broader trend of subdued economic momentum amid cautious consumer spending and persistent inflation concerns. The Bank of England continues to monitor these figures closely as it balances growth objectives with inflation control. According to Sarah Johnson, senior economist at Morgan Stanley, “The latest GDP reading underscores the fragile nature of the UK recovery, suggesting policymakers will remain patient before adjusting monetary policy.”