Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.1% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from May's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.3%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.13%, vs 0.98% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.73
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.37
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.1% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.15%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.4% across 15 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.1%, up from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug 20) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Gross Domestic Product YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Gross Domestic Product YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product YoY for July came in at 1.200000%, beating the 1.100000% estimate. This marks an increase from June’s 0.900000%, indicating a stronger economic growth trajectory year-over-year. Market focus now shifts to upcoming monetary policy decisions amid this upward revision. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -13 | 5 | -4.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 147 | 200 | 141.50 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | -6.4 | 11.2 | 0.10 | Low |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.65 | Low |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.48 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.13 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.63 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.63 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.58 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0 | -0.08 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.88 | High |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.95 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | -40.50 | Medium | |
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -15.50 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY | 5.4 | 3.3 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | 0 | -1.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.5 | -0.85 | High | |