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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.6% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5% from June's 1.1% reading. The print exceeded the 1.2% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.08%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.1%, vs 1.08% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: 1.6
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.6% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.15%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.6% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, up from the prior three at 1.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.25%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 9) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - UK
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product YoY for August came in at 1.600%, beating the 1.200% estimate and rising from July’s 1.200%. This marks a clear acceleration in annual growth, reversing the prior month’s modest pace. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and Bank of England policy signals. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.20 | Medium | |