Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.2% in April 2026, released June 2026. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.1%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.03%, vs 1.05% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.38
Actual: 1.2
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.14%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.4% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.1%, up from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Construction PMI (Jul 6) and Halifax House Price Index MoM (Jul 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Gross Domestic Product YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Gross Domestic Product YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK Gross Domestic Product YoY for May came in at 1.2%, matching the previous reading but missing the 1.3% estimate. This represents a steady level compared to April's 1.1%, indicating no acceleration in annual growth. Market focus remains on upcoming data releases and Bank of England policy decisions amid this stable growth environment. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP