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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom House Price Index YoY fell to 0.0% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom House Price Index YoY fell to 0.0% in May 2026, down 1.7% from April's 1.7% reading. The print exceeded the -0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.64%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged 0.68%, vs 0.61% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.38
Actual: 0
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 0% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.25%, ranging from -0.6% to 3.9% across 28 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, down from the prior three at 1.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.73%). In May readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged 2.55%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - UK
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About House Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0 %. Before that (May 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.