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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom House Price Index YoY fell to -0.4% in August 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom House Price Index YoY fell to -0.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.5% from July's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.03%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged 1.63%, vs 0.42% in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.24
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.64
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.95%, ranging from -0.6% to 3.8% across 23 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, down from the prior three at 1.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In September readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged 1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - UK
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About House Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |