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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.7% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print came in cooler than the 0.9% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.55%, vs -0.35% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate MoM is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, up from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - UK
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About Inflation Rate MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.