Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 0.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Inflation Rate MoM - UK
Loading chart data...
About Inflation Rate MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |