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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom M4 Money Supply MoM climbed to 0.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply MoM climbed to 0.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.6% from May's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.33%. Over the past 3 months, M4 Money Supply MoM averaged 0.37%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. M4 Money Supply MoM is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M4 Money Supply MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In July readings over the past 3 years, M4 Money Supply MoM has averaged 0.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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M4 Money Supply MoM - UK
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About M4 Money Supply MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
M4 Money Supply MoM is a financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the broadest measure of money supply in an economy. It includes all physical currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and other liquid assets held by households, businesses, and financial institutions. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall liquidity and spending power of an economy, making it a key tool for analyzing monetary policy and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |