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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom M4 Money Supply MoM fell to -0.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply MoM fell to -0.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.2% from June's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.9% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, M4 Money Supply MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. M4 Money Supply MoM is now the lowest in 33 months.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.03
Actual: -0.3
Error: +1.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M4 Money Supply MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -0.3% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In September readings over the past 3 years, M4 Money Supply MoM has averaged 0.06%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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M4 Money Supply MoM - UK
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About M4 Money Supply MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
M4 Money Supply MoM is a financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the broadest measure of money supply in an economy. It includes all physical currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and other liquid assets held by households, businesses, and financial institutions. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall liquidity and spending power of an economy, making it a key tool for analyzing monetary policy and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |