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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending climbed to 7.73B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Lending climbed to 7.73B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 4.46B from May's 3.27B reading. The print exceeded the 3.95B consensus by 3.78B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.61B. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Lending averaged 4.47B, vs 4.51B in the prior 3-month window. Mortgage Lending is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
7.73
Actual
3.95
Consensus
3.27
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.17
Actual: 7.73
Error: -4.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Lending (United Kingdom) was reported at 7.73 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.95 billion by 3.78 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.27 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.69 billion, ranging from 2.89 billion to 7.73 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.00 billion, up from the prior three at 4.51 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.13 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.11 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Lending has averaged 3.41 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Jul 31) and Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Mortgage Lending - UK
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About Mortgage Lending — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Rate The Mortgage Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks and other financial institutions lend money for mortgages. This rate is influenced by various economic factors and can have a significant impact on the housing market and overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and individuals looking to purchase or refinance a home. A lower mortgage lending rate can make homeownership more affordable, while a higher rate can make it more difficult for individuals to obtain financing.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.73 B, consensus 3.95 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.89 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.37 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.45 | Medium | |