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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 4.29B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 4.29B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 3.39B from June's 7.68B reading. The reading missed the 4.6B consensus by 0.31B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.81B. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Lending averaged 5.31B, vs 5.12B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.29
Actual
4.6
Consensus
7.68
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.79 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.12
Actual: 4.29
Error: +0.83
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Lending (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.29 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.60 billion by 0.31 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.68 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.67 billion, ranging from 2.89 billion to 7.73 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.97 billion, up from the prior three at 4.43 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.13 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.10 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Lending has averaged 3.44 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.79 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Mortgage Lending - UK
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About Mortgage Lending — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Rate The Mortgage Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks and other financial institutions lend money for mortgages. This rate is influenced by various economic factors and can have a significant impact on the housing market and overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and individuals looking to purchase or refinance a home. A lower mortgage lending rate can make homeownership more affordable, while a higher rate can make it more difficult for individuals to obtain financing.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.29 B, consensus 4.6 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.73 B. Before that (May 2026): 2.89 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |