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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 2.89B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 2.89B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.55B from April's 4.44B reading. The reading missed the 4.6B consensus by 1.71B. Mortgage Lending has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Lending averaged 5.26B, vs 4.5B in the prior 3-month window. Mortgage Lending is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
2.89
Actual
4.6
Consensus
4.44
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.89
Actual: 2.89
Error: +0.99
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Lending (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.89 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.60 billion by 1.71 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.44 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.47 billion, ranging from 2.89 billion to 5.49 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.03 billion, down from the prior three at 4.39 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.65 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.08 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Lending has averaged 2.14 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Mortgage Lending - UK
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About Mortgage Lending — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Rate The Mortgage Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks and other financial institutions lend money for mortgages. This rate is influenced by various economic factors and can have a significant impact on the housing market and overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and individuals looking to purchase or refinance a home. A lower mortgage lending rate can make homeownership more affordable, while a higher rate can make it more difficult for individuals to obtain financing.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.89 B, consensus 4.6 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.37 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 6.15 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |