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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 3.87B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Lending fell to 3.87B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3B from August's 4.17B reading. The reading missed the 4.2B consensus by 0.33B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.8B. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Lending averaged 4.35B, vs 5.0B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.87
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4.17
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.79 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.13
Actual: 3.87
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Lending (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.87 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.20 billion by 0.33 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.17 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.53 billion, ranging from 2.89 billion to 7.73 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.19 billion, down from the prior three at 5.00 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.12 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.08 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Lending has averaged 2.74 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.79 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mortgage Lending - UK
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About Mortgage Lending — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Rate The Mortgage Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks and other financial institutions lend money for mortgages. This rate is influenced by various economic factors and can have a significant impact on the housing market and overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and individuals looking to purchase or refinance a home. A lower mortgage lending rate can make homeownership more affordable, while a higher rate can make it more difficult for individuals to obtain financing.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.87 B, consensus 4.2 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.41 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.29 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.41) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |