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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM fell to -0.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM fell to -0.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.4% from August's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.16%. Over the past 3 months, Nationwide Housing Prices MoM averaged 0.15%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.03
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.47%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Nationwide Housing Prices MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 14) and Industrial Production MoM (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - UK
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About Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in average home prices across the entire country on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions about real estate investments and economic policies. By tracking the month-over-month changes in housing prices, this indicator can help identify trends and potential risks in the housing market, making it a crucial tool for monitoring the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -9.66 | -9.9 | -9.90 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -3.45 | -3.6 | -2.17 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -20.97 | -21.8 | -19.33 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low | |
| 11:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Low | |