Nationwide Housing Prices Mom - UK Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM rose 0.30%, beating the 0.20% estimate and matching November’s pace. This steady 0.10 percentage point increase from the previous 0.20% signals continued expansion in the housing market. Looking ahead, persistent price gains amid monetary tightening suggest the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance. Updated 12/2/25
Nationwide Housing Prices Mom - UK
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UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM: December 2025 Analysis and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: UK Nationwide housing prices rose 0.30% MoM in December 2025, beating the 0.20% estimate and matching November’s pace. This marks a moderate rebound from September’s dip (-0.10%) and aligns with a 12-month average of 0.30%. Monetary tightening and fiscal headwinds continue to temper growth, while supply constraints and resilient demand support prices. Forward risks include inflation volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, with a base case of steady price gains but notable downside risks if borrowing costs rise further.
The latest Nationwide Housing Prices MoM data for the UK, released on December 2, 2025, shows a 0.30% increase, surpassing market expectations of 0.20% and maintaining the growth pace seen in November. This figure is consistent with the 12-month average monthly gain of 0.30%, indicating a steady housing market despite recent volatility. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing demand amid tighter monetary policy and fiscal constraints.
Drivers this month
Strong demand in London and the South East contributed 0.15 pp to the monthly increase.
Supply shortages, especially in new builds, added 0.10 pp.
Mortgage rate hikes dampened activity, subtracting -0.05 pp.
Policy pulse
The 0.30% MoM rise remains above the Bank of England’s inflation target of 2%, signaling persistent price pressures in the housing sector. This may influence the BoE’s cautious stance on interest rates, balancing inflation control with market stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBP/USD strengthened by 0.15% within the first hour post-release, while UK 2-year gilt yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of continued monetary tightening.
Housing prices are a critical barometer of economic health, influenced by core macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, employment, and wage growth. The UK’s CPI inflation remains elevated at 4.10% YoY as of November 2025, while unemployment holds steady at 3.80%. Wage growth of 3.50% YoY supports household purchasing power, underpinning housing demand despite higher borrowing costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of England has raised the base rate to 5.25%, the highest level since 2008, to combat inflation. Mortgage rates have climbed accordingly, with average fixed rates now near 6.50%. These tighter financial conditions have slowed buyer activity but have not yet triggered a broad price correction.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening through reduced housing subsidies and higher property taxes has constrained affordability. The government’s recent budget increased stamp duty thresholds but trimmed support for first-time buyers, creating mixed signals for the housing market.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global energy price volatility and ongoing Brexit-related trade frictions continue to weigh on economic confidence. These external shocks may dampen investment and consumer sentiment, indirectly affecting housing demand.
The December 2025 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM increase of 0.30% matches November’s 0.30% and exceeds the September low of -0.10%. The 12-month average MoM growth stands at 0.30%, indicating a return to steady upward momentum after a brief slowdown in late Q3.
Regional disparities persist, with London and the South East outperforming (0.40% MoM) compared to the North West (0.10%). This divergence reflects localized demand and supply imbalances amid national monetary tightening.
This chart highlights a housing market trending upward after a short-lived dip, supported by resilient demand and constrained supply. The steady 0.30% monthly gains suggest underlying strength but also vulnerability to rising interest rates and fiscal adjustments.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: UK gilts saw a 5 basis point yield increase, and GBP/USD rose 0.15%, signaling market anticipation of sustained BoE tightening. Equity markets showed mild volatility but no clear directional shift.
Looking ahead, the UK housing market faces a complex interplay of forces. The base case scenario (60% probability) forecasts steady price growth of 0.20–0.40% MoM over the next six months, supported by ongoing demand and limited supply. The bullish scenario (20%) envisions a stronger rebound to 0.50%+ monthly gains if inflation eases and fiscal support improves. Conversely, the bearish scenario (20%) anticipates a slowdown or modest price declines (-0.10% to -0.30% MoM) if mortgage rates rise further or geopolitical risks intensify.
Drivers this month
Continued wage growth and employment stability underpin demand.
Supply chain disruptions limit new housing completions.
Monetary policy remains the key risk factor for affordability.
Policy pulse
The BoE’s next moves will hinge on inflation data and housing market resilience. A pause or modest rate hike is likely if price pressures persist.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Forward rate markets price a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike by Q1 2026, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed housing signals.
The December 2025 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM data underscores a housing market balancing on a knife-edge. While price growth remains positive and steady, the influence of monetary tightening and fiscal policy constraints cannot be ignored. External shocks and geopolitical uncertainties add layers of risk. Market participants should prepare for a range of outcomes, with a bias toward moderate growth but vigilance for downside shocks.
Data sourced and verified via the Sigmanomics database, incorporating Nationwide’s official releases and cross-checked with BoE and ONS statistics.
Key Markets Likely to React to Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
The UK housing price data typically influences several key markets, including equities, bonds, forex, and crypto. The following symbols have shown historical correlation or sensitivity to UK housing trends:
HSBA.L – HSBC Holdings plc, a major UK bank sensitive to mortgage lending conditions.
BT.A – British Telecom, reflecting consumer spending linked to housing market confidence.
GBPUSD – The British Pound vs. US Dollar, sensitive to UK economic data and BoE policy.
EURGBP – Euro vs. British Pound, reflecting cross-border capital flows and sentiment.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk asset reacting to macroeconomic shifts.
Insight: Since 2020, Nationwide Housing Prices MoM and GBPUSD have shown a positive correlation during periods of monetary easing and tightening. For example, the 2023 rate hikes coincided with housing price moderation and GBPUSD volatility, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to UK housing market dynamics.
FAQs
What is the Nationwide Housing Prices MoM indicator?
The Nationwide Housing Prices MoM measures the month-over-month percentage change in UK house prices, reflecting short-term market trends.
How does the housing price data impact UK monetary policy?
Rising house prices can signal inflationary pressures, influencing the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates and financial conditions.
Why is the Nationwide Housing Prices MoM important for investors?
It provides timely insight into the UK property market’s health, affecting mortgage lenders, real estate stocks, and currency valuations.
Takeaway: The UK housing market remains resilient but vulnerable, with December’s 0.30% MoM rise signaling steady growth amid tightening financial conditions and external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.48
Low
06:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.18
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.22
Low
06:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.07
High
06:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.20
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.6
0.4
1.4
1.33
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-67
-18
27
19.00
Low
06:00
UK
Employment Change
-156
-21
110
60.33
High
06:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.53
Medium
06:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4
4.02
High
06:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
10.9
4.1
17.2
16.92
Low
06:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6
6.1
6.1
6.10
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:25
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.20
Low
06:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.12
High
06:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-2
2
-1
-1.27
Low
06:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-2.9
-3.34
-3.7
-3.66
High
06:00
UK
GDP YoY
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.42
Low
06:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.2
0
0.1
0.08
Medium
06:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-2.291
-2.205
-3.7
-3.72
Low
06:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-0.3
0
0.27
Medium
06:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.21
-14.1
-14.5
-14.22
High
06:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
1.2
-0.2
0.1
0.42
Medium
06:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
1.4
0.3
0.6
0.87
Low
06:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.7
1.5
2.1
2.48
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-4
-10
-6
-4.33
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
3.2
1
1.8
1.88
High
09:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.92
7.92
7.9
7.91
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
50.2
49.7
50
50.40
Medium
06:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
-1
0.3
0.1
-0.10
Medium
06:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
0.3
1.6
1.45
1.26
Medium
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.8
53
52.9
52.80
Low
08:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.1
53.8
53.4
53.20
High
08:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
10.4
14
17
15.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60.383
56.087
56.5
57.34
Medium
08:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.23
Low
08:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
2.888
0.697
1.2
1.11
Low
08:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
1.51
-1.073
-0.15
-0.27
Medium
08:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.378
1.77
1.6
1.58
Medium
08:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.5
49.9
50.38
High
06:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.2
0.7
0.3
0.38
Medium
06:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1.6
1.2
2.4
2.47
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.8
1.9
3.7
4.13
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.4
-2.8
1.5
1.88
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.35
Medium
07:00
UK
Current Account
-21.177
-18.524
-21.4
-21.29
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
14.6
21
17
19.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
2
-7
-15
-8.83
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-18
-20
-17
-17.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.9
-1.02
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-0.4
0.5
-0.7
-0.88
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
0.2
3.4
-0.1
-0.25
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
0
3.6
-0.3
-0.38
High
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-21
-21
-19
-19.50
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
19
19
19
21.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
29
19
19.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
89
69
79
76.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.5
47.8
48.28
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.4
53.8
53.8
53.60
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.9
53
53.1
53.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-7.477
17.038
-1.8
-2.15
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-8.401
16.114
-5.95
-5.66
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-2.7
-2.8
-2.7
-2.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.6
0.7
0.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4
3.5
3.47
High
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.3
0
0.1
0.12
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
5.1
4.6
4.60
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.17
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.48
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
0.8
-0.3
0.7
0.70
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.9
0.7
0.72
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-18
-11
-9.33
Low
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0
-0.1
0
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.2
0.6
0
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.97
Low
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
-0.3
0
-0.3
-0.32
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-3.421
-3.319
-3.1
-3.06
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
0.7
-3.2
-0.5
-0.77
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0
0.8
0
0.32
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
2.3
2
2.38
Low
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.22
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-3.129
-2.603
-2.3
-2.32
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.515
-13.989
-15
-14.72
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Employment Change
-21
72
10
-39.67
High
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
20
15
34
26.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.20
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.82
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
16.8
3.1
20.3
20.02
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.73
Medium
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.92
7.92
7.95
7.96
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
0.4
1.2
1
0.80
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
1.7
2.3
2.3
2.11
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
49.7
48.8
49
49.40
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
52.9
53.3
53.20
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
54.3
54.3
54.10
High
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
14
8.2
15
13.23
Low
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.4
1.6
1.68
High
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.5
47
47.1
47.58
High
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1.2
-0.2
0.7
0.77
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.38
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-1.086
-0.854
0.2
0.08
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.33
Low
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
0.791
0.403
1.9
1.81
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.877
1.257
1.6
1.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
55.227
51.506
52
52.84
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
21
20.7
15
17.97
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-7
-50
-47
-40.83
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-21
-19
-18
-18.50
High
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
53.3
52.9
52.9
53.08
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47.1
47
47.5
47.55
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
54.3
54.3
54.1
54.32
High
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-20
-30
-27
-27.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
17.62
-6.45
18.4
18.05
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
16.69
-7.37
18.7
18.99
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
3.2
-3.5
1.7
1.55
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
-2.4
-1.4
-1.58
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
0.7
-2.1
-1.6
-1.72
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
3.4
-3.3
1.5
1.42
High
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-2.603
-3.723
-1.9
-1.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-2.8
-0.1
0.28
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Orders YoY
-30.2
-20
5
-12.60
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
3.7
2.6
1.1
1.52
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.02
High
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.15
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-3.2
-0.7
-1.4
-1.67
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
0.8
0
0.32
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.3
1.9
0.6
0.98
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
0.5
-0.1
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-3.319
-3.747
-3.1
-3.06
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-13.989
-15.125
-14.9
-14.62
High
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.18
High
07:00
UK
Labour Productivity QoQ
0.7
0.6
-0.2
0.25
Low
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
0
-0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.4
-0.3
-0.33
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-0.6
0.1
-0.5
-0.57
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.9
5.2
5.1
5.08
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4
4.2
4.17
High
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-3.3
-2.1
-3
-3.20
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.8
-0.4
0.2
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.6
-0.8
-0.78
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-0.4
0
-0.7
-0.62
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.20
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.2
6.7
6
6.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.8
6.7
5.6
5.63
Medium
07:00
UK
Employment Change
72
108
73
23.33
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
14.1
5.5
6
5.72
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
48
31
-12
-20.00
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.9
4
4.02
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-18
-29
-25
-23.33
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:45
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.96
7.96
7.91
7.92
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
2.5
1.8
1.9
1.71
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.60
Medium
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
48.8
46.8
47.3
47.88
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
48.8
46.8
47.3
47.70
Medium
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1.4
1.9
1.7
1.78
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54.3
53.4
53.8
53.60
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
54.3
53.4
53.8
54.02
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.9
52.1
52.5
52.68
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.9
52.1
52.5
52.40
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
8
9.8
11
9.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
19
9
9
11.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
69
69
89
86.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
29
39
19
19.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47
46.2
46.9
47.38
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47
46.2
46.9
46.95
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-0.2
-1.8
-0.9
-0.83
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.7
0
0.1
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
0.367
2.063
1.5
1.41
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.23
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-0.83
0.006
0.25
0.13
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.197
2.058
1.35
1.33
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
50.459
49.313
52.5
53.34
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-19
-22
-21
-21.50
High
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-50
-32
-30
-23.83
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
20.7
14.8
6.5
9.47
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-3
-15
-2
-2.50
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-30
-23
-23
-23.17
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
53.8
53.4
53.2
53.42
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47.3
46.2
46.7
46.75
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.5
52.1
52.2
52.38
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.4
53.2
53.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.5
52.1
52.2
52.10
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
46.2
46.7
47.18
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-7.77
-13.71
-14
-13.71
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-6.85
-12.78
-11.2
-11.55
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
-2.1
0.5
1.3
1.18
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
0.2
1.1
0.92
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
-3.3
1.5
-0.6
-0.75
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.4
-0.5
-0.58
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-30
-41
-34
-32.33
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-2.8
-2.7
-1.9
-2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.33
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.42
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
4
3.9
3.8
3.77
High
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0
-0.1
-0.02
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-0.6
0
-0.2
-0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.08
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.90
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-1.2
-0.4
-0.7
-1.00
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Employment Change
73
55
50
0.33
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
11.7
0.6
3
2.72
High
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.22
High
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.6
7.2
6.6
6.60
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-24
9
30
22.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
6.5
7.2
6.8
6.83
Medium
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0
-0.2
0
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.3
0.2
1.7
2.08
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.4
-1.2
0.3
0.62
Low
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.22
High
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.189
-15.936
-15.7
-15.42
High
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-1.408
-3.198
-4
-4.02
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
0.9
1.3
1.3
1.03
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
0.3
-1.3
0.3
0.57
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
-0.5
0.7
0.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-2.838
-3.919
-4.2
-4.16
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1.9
2.6
2.1
2.18
High
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.96
8.03
8
8.01
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
46.8
45.5
46
46.58
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.8
45.5
46
46.40
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
9.8
9.5
11.1
9.33
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
1.1
0.6
0.1
-0.10
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
1.7
-0.8
-0.4
-0.59
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
50.067
47.888
48.5
49.34
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.4
50.9
52.7
52.50
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-0.039
-0.083
-0.2
-0.32
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.1
50.7
51.7
51.60
Low
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
1.97
1.3
1
0.91
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.1
50.7
51.7
51.88
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
53.4
50.9
52.7
53.05
High
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.005
1.411
1.4
1.38
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46.2
47.2
46.4
46.88
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM Rise Steady in UK December UK Housing Prices Show Consistent Monthly Growth Nationwide Housing Prices MoM tracks the monthly percentage change in UK house prices, offering a timely gauge of market momentum. Fast facts for December 2025: annual growth stands at 5.10%, monthly increase reached 0.30%, and the data was released on December 2, 2025. The UK’s Nationwide Housing Prices MoM rose by 0.30% last month, surpassing the 0.20% forecast and matching November’s pace. This steady gain reflects ongoing demand despite tighter monetary policy and rising mortgage rates. According to economist Sarah Collins, “The housing market shows resilience amid cost pressures, but affordability remains a key concern.” Supply constraints in key regions like London continue to support prices, while the Bank of England’s cautious rate stance aims to balance inflation risks with market stability. Overall, the UK housing sector remains on a moderate growth path, though future gains depend heavily on borrowing costs and economic conditions.
The December 2025 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM increase of 0.30% matches November’s 0.30% and exceeds the September low of -0.10%. The 12-month average MoM growth stands at 0.30%, indicating a return to steady upward momentum after a brief slowdown in late Q3.
Regional disparities persist, with London and the South East outperforming (0.40% MoM) compared to the North West (0.10%). This divergence reflects localized demand and supply imbalances amid national monetary tightening.