Nationwide Housing Prices MOM - UK Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.3
Previous
UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM rose 0.30% in February 2026, matching January’s pace and confirming market stability. This marks a steady increase from January’s 0.30%, continuing positive momentum after December’s -0.40% contraction. UK property stocks opened flat, reflecting consensus expectations and a balanced outlook amid steady Bank of England policy. Updated 3/2/26
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Nationwide Housing Prices MOM - UK
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UK house prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in February, matching January’s pace and signaling continued market stability. Annual growth remains subdued, with the 12-month average at 0.18%.
UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM: February Print Holds Steady at 0.3%
UK housing prices, as measured by the Nationwide Housing Prices MoM index, posted a 0.3% increase in February 2026, unchanged from January’s reading. This marks the third consecutive month at or above zero, following a brief dip in December. The data, released on March 2, 2026, provides insight into the resilience of the UK property market amid shifting economic conditions.[1]
The 0.3% monthly gain remains well above the Bank of England’s zero-growth target for housing inflation, but annualized growth is muted. The central bank continues to monitor for overheating risks, though recent prints suggest a balanced market.
Market lens
UK property stocks opened flat after the release. Investors interpreted the steady reading as a sign of ongoing stability, with no immediate triggers for sharp repricing. The muted reaction reflects consensus expectations and a lack of surprise in the headline figure.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Average mortgage rates: 4.2% (unchanged from January)
First-time buyer activity: up 3.1% YoY
Housing supply: 1.7% below February 2025
Policy pulse
With the MoM index holding at 0.3%, policymakers see little urgency for intervention. The Bank of England’s last rate hike was in September 2025, and lending standards remain tight.
Market lens
Mortgage lenders maintained current product offerings. The absence of volatility in the housing index has encouraged lenders to keep rates and terms steady, supporting transaction volumes.
Chart Dynamics
February’s 0.3% MoM increase matches January’s figure and sits above the 12-month average of 0.18%. The index has now posted positive readings in three of the past four months, rebounding from a -0.4% contraction in December 2025. Compared to August’s 0.6% surge and October’s 0.5% gain, recent months reflect a moderation in price momentum.
Stability has returned after last year’s volatility. The index’s swings from -0.1% in September to 0.5% in October and back to -0.4% in December highlight the market’s sensitivity to rate changes and supply constraints.
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM trend, August 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart illustrates a return to moderate, positive growth after a volatile second half of 2025. The recent string of 0.3% monthly gains signals a market finding its footing, with neither sharp appreciation nor renewed declines dominating the trend.
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
Household income growth: +2.4% YoY
Rental yields: steady at 5.1%
Construction starts: -1.2% YoY
Policy pulse
With housing inflation stable, the Bank of England is expected to maintain its current stance. No major policy shifts are anticipated unless price growth accelerates or reverses sharply.
Market lens
Analysts see a balanced risk profile for spring. Bullish scenario: 0.5%+ monthly gains (15% probability) if mortgage rates fall. Base case: 0.2–0.4% MoM (70% probability) as current trends persist. Bearish: return to negative prints (15% probability) if economic headwinds intensify.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
Regional price divergence: North vs. South gap widens
Investor demand: stable
Affordability ratios: unchanged
Policy pulse
Authorities remain vigilant but see no immediate cause for intervention. The steady 0.3% MoM reading supports a wait-and-see approach.
Market lens
Market participants welcome the consistency. The lack of surprises in the data has reinforced confidence in the sector’s near-term outlook, with most stakeholders content to maintain current strategies.
Key Markets Reacting to Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
Movements in UK housing prices can ripple across equity, currency, and crypto markets. Below are verified symbols from Sigmanomics, each with a direct or indirect link to the property sector’s performance. These instruments often respond to shifts in housing data, reflecting broader economic sentiment and sector-specific trends.
AAPL: Sensitive to global consumer confidence, which can be influenced by UK housing trends.
EURUSD: GBP movements after UK housing data can indirectly affect this major currency pair.
BTCUSD: Sometimes viewed as a hedge when traditional assets, including property, show muted returns.
Month
Nationwide MoM (%)
AAPL (Monthly % Chg)
Aug 2025
0.6
+3.2
Oct 2025
0.5
+2.7
Dec 2025
0.3
+1.1
Feb 2026
0.3
+0.9
Insight: Since 2020, AAPL’s monthly returns have shown a mild positive correlation with UK housing price momentum, reflecting broader risk appetite shifts.
FAQ
What is the latest UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM figure?
The February 2026 reading is 0.3%, unchanged from January and above the 12-month average of 0.18%.
How does the 0.3% MoM rise compare to recent trends?
This marks the third positive print in four months, following a volatile second half of 2025.
What does a steady MoM reading mean for the UK housing market?
It signals stability, with neither sharp gains nor renewed declines, supporting a balanced outlook for buyers and sellers.
UK house prices remain steady, with February’s 0.3% MoM increase underscoring a resilient and balanced market.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Nationwide Building Society, UK House Price Index, February 2026 release. Methodology: MoM change, seasonally adjusted. Data via Sigmanomics database.
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Thursday, March 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-12
-10
-9
-8.83
Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
0.7
2.3
2.4
2.35
Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.59
6.62
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.40
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.3
0.8
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
44.5
46.4
47
47.23
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
7.2
3.4
1
3.08
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.9
53.92
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
53.7
53.9
53.93
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.52
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
5.9
6.1
3.8
4.67
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.812
1.652
1.2
1.40
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.7
51.8
52
52.07
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.08
4.49
4.2
4.18
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.10
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60
61.01
62.5
61.54
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.38
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
1
1.1
0.90
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-8.2
17.7
5.3
3.77
Low
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-19
-16
-16
-16.50
Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-17
-30
-43.00
Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-43
-17
-17
-30.00
Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.9
54
53.6
53.70
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.50
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52
51.8
51.9
51.92
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.33
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52
51.8
51.5
51.57
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.5
53.52
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
30.4
-13.4
19
21.44
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
4.5
1.9
2.7
2.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
2
0.3
0.1
0.47
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.48
High
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-28
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3
2.98
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.6
-0.63
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.4
3
2.92
High
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.75
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-0.2
0.5
0.9
0.80
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.03
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
CPI
3
3.4
3
3.00
High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
28.6
2.7
22
22.30
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
52
82
-40
0.50
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.45
Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-2.7
1.6
0.5
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.15
High
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.5
1.3
1.2
1.63
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.25
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-4.34
-11.33
-6
-6.24
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.98
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
2.3
1.6
2.00
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.2
-0.13
Medium
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2
2.5
3.1
3.33
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
1.9
-0.3
0.05
Medium
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.25
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-0.5
-0.8
0.5
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2.3
1
1.3
1.25
Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1
0.3
0
0.30
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.62
6.77
6.7
6.71
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
5
4
7
6.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
0
0
0
0.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
4
5
2
2.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.4
40.1
42.5
42.73
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
3.9
2
4.08
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
51.4
53.9
53.93
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54
51.4
54.3
54.32
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
50.6
51.6
51.67
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.47
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
0.6
1.5
1.30
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
61.01
64.07
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.524
2.143
1.9
2.10
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.80
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.6
4.59
4.6
4.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.1
6.6
6.1
6.28
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
17.7
-14.3
6.7
5.17
Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.5
0.7
0.7
0.82
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.7
51.90
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50.6
50.8
50.82
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.5
51.60
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
-
51.4
51.7
51.72
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
50.6
50.6
50.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-
-0.1
-0.2
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
0.6
0.8
1.07
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
0.7
0.50
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-0.2
-0.3
0.08
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-
-17
-17
-17.50
Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-44
-57
-70.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-
-11.65
-15
-12.56
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-
-11.65
-13.5
-13.50
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-32
-28
-28.00
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-
-31
-27
-27.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
1.7
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-
3.5
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.08
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-
1.1
1
0.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-
-0.4
0.2
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-
3.4
3.3
3.13
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
-
3.8
3.7
3.55
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.03
High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.55
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-43
-38
-20
-25.25
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
82
-16
-25
15.50
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
17.9
20.1
20.5
20.80
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.05
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
0.4
0.5
0.85
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.15
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-11.46
-11.81
-9.1
-10.28
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-6.116
-6.531
-3.5
-3.74
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
1.3
0.1
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-23.71
-24.17
-20.4
-22.05
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-1.1
0.9
0.1
-0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.05
High
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
-0.80
Low
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-14
-14
-16
-15.83
Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.2
0.6
0.55
High
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.77
6.81
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.40
Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
40.1
39.4
40.1
40.33
Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.4
51.2
52.1
52.13
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
51.4
51.3
52.1
52.12
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.9
-1.6
-1
1.08
Low
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
64.53
65.01
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.077
1.713
1.1
1.30
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
6.6
5.9
5.2
6.08
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.00
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.49
4.16
4.5
4.48
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.6
5.4
5.2
5.38
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.6
50.2
51.2
51.27
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
0.6
1.8
1.2
1.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.03
Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-
1.8
1.5
1.30
Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
1.5
1.30
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
-
3
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-1
0.6
0.97
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-
-1.1
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Monday, December 22, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Current Account
-12.1
-21.2
-21.3
-16.70
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.30
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.25
High
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.7
3.2
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-1.7
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-37
-34
-34.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-11.65
-21.19
-10
-7.56
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.68
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.17
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.40
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.57
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-17
-19
-18
-18.50
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-14.3
-23.8
-7.6
-9.13
Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
49
59
49
48.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
59
49
59
59.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
9
9
9.00
Medium
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-32
-37
-35
-35.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.3
0
0.2
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.42
High
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.4
0.3
0
-0.20
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.15
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.22
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0.1
0
0.00
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.2
50.2
51.2
51.23
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
52.1
51.2
51.9
52.10
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.1
51.3
52
52.10
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
52.1
51.3
51.6
51.62
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.9
4.4
4.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
20.1
-3.9
22.3
22.60
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-38
-22
-40
-45.25
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Employment Change
-16
-22
-60
-19.50
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
50.2
48.2
48.27
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.1
51.2
51.6
51.63
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
UK Nationwide Housing Prices Rise Steadily in February The Nationwide Housing Prices index measures monthly changes in UK home values, reflecting market trends and affordability. In February 2026, prices increased by 0.30%, consistent with both the previous month’s rise and market expectations. This steady growth, reported on March 2, 2026, marks a continuation of moderate price gains following a brief decline in December 2025. The sustained 0.30% increase suggests resilience in the housing market despite broader economic uncertainties and ongoing Bank of England scrutiny. Analysts from Morgan Stanley note that “the stable monthly gains indicate a balanced market environment, with demand and supply factors largely in equilibrium.” As mortgage rates remain steady and lending conditions tight, the housing sector appears to be maintaining its footing without overheating risks.
February’s 0.3% MoM increase matches January’s figure and sits above the 12-month average of 0.18%. The index has now posted positive readings in three of the past four months, rebounding from a -0.4% contraction in December 2025. Compared to August’s 0.6% surge and October’s 0.5% gain, recent months reflect a moderation in price momentum.
Stability has returned after last year’s volatility. The index’s swings from -0.1% in September to 0.5% in October and back to -0.4% in December highlight the market’s sensitivity to rate changes and supply constraints.