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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.1% from May's 0.2% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.21%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Price Index MoM - UK
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About Retail Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This index is used by policymakers, businesses, and investors to track inflation and consumer spending trends, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. A higher Retail Price Index MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices, making it an important tool for decision-making in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |