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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM fell to 0.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM fell to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 1.4% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index MoM averaged 0.6%, vs -0.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
1.4
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.35
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.4% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index MoM has averaged 0.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Price Index MoM - UK
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About Retail Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This index is used by policymakers, businesses, and investors to track inflation and consumer spending trends, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. A higher Retail Price Index MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices, making it an important tool for decision-making in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.61) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.