UK Retail Price Index MoM fell -0.5% in January, the sharpest monthly drop since December 2025. Downside surprise versus consensus (-0.1%). Five-month trend now negative.

UK Retail Price Index MoM: January 2026 Print Signals Deflationary Turn

The UK’s Retail Price Index (RPI) for January 2026 registered a -0.5% month-over-month change, marking a notable reversal from December’s 0.7% increase. This reading, released on February 18, 2026, is the lowest since December 2025 and falls well below the market estimate of -0.1%[1].

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Food and non-alcoholic beverages: -0.15pp
Transport: -0.12pp
Clothing and footwear: -0.09pp
Housing and household services: -0.07pp

Policy pulse

January’s -0.5% RPI MoM reading sits well below the Bank of England’s price stability threshold. The central bank’s focus remains on headline CPI, but a negative RPI print adds to disinflationary signals.

Market lens

Sterling weakened against major peers immediately after release. Gilt yields fell as traders priced in a higher probability of rate cuts, while UK equities saw a mild uptick on easing inflation concerns.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

January 2026: -0.5%
December 2025: 0.7%
November 2025: 0.3%
October 2025: -0.4%
August–September 2025: both 0.4%

Comparative trends

The 12-month average RPI MoM stands at 0.22%, with January’s print sharply below trend. The last comparable drop was December 2025 (-0.4%). Over the past six months, three readings have been negative, underscoring a shift toward disinflation.

Data source and methodology

Figures are sourced from the UK Office for National Statistics and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. RPI tracks changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services, updated monthly.

Chart Dynamics

January’s -0.5% RPI MoM is the lowest in over a year, reversing December’s 0.7% gain and falling below the 12-month average of 0.22%.

Since August 2025, the index has alternated between modest gains and losses, with negative prints in October, December, and now January. This pattern signals a break from the steady gains seen in the first half of 2025.

Retail Price Index MoM trend (April 2025 – January 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The RPI MoM’s sharp January drop, following a positive December, highlights growing volatility and downside risks for UK retail prices. The trend suggests a cooling in consumer demand and persistent disinflationary pressures.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20%): RPI rebounds to positive territory as energy and food prices stabilize.
Base case (60%): RPI remains near zero, with alternating small gains and losses through Q2 2026.
Bearish (20%): Further negative prints as weak demand and discounting persist.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include supply chain normalization and wage growth. Downside risks stem from consumer retrenchment and global disinflation. Market participants will watch upcoming CPI and wage data for confirmation.

Closing Thoughts

Market lens

Bond markets reacted swiftly to the downside surprise. The negative RPI print has increased expectations for a dovish policy tilt, while equities and sterling reflect the shifting inflation narrative.

Takeaway

January’s RPI MoM drop marks a pivotal moment for UK inflation watchers, with the trend now firmly in negative territory and policy implications in focus.

Key Markets Reacting to Retail Price Index MoM

The UK’s latest RPI MoM print has triggered notable moves across asset classes. Sterling, UK equities, and global indices all responded to the downside surprise, as traders recalibrated inflation and policy expectations. Below are select symbols from verified Sigmanomics market listings, each with a direct or indirect link to UK inflation dynamics.

AAPL: Sensitive to global consumer demand and UK retail trends.
EURUSD: Moves reflect shifts in European and UK macro data.
BTCUSD: Often reacts to inflation surprises and fiat currency volatility.

Indicator vs. Symbol: RPI MoM and EURUSD Since 2020

Year	RPI MoM Avg (%)	EURUSD Trend
2020	0.12	Range-bound
2021	0.19	Uptrend
2022	0.28	Volatile
2023	0.23	Downtrend
2024	0.21	Stable
2025	0.22	Mixed

EURUSD has shown sensitivity to UK inflation surprises, with notable moves during periods of sharp RPI swings.

FAQ: UK Retail Price Index MoM: January 2026 Print Signals Deflationary Turn

What does the January 2026 UK Retail Price Index MoM reading indicate?: The -0.5% print signals a sharp monthly decline in UK retail prices, the lowest since December 2025, and highlights growing disinflationary pressures.
How does this summary reflect the latest RPI MoM data?: It captures the downside surprise, the break from recent trends, and the immediate market reaction to the January 2026 release.
Why is the Retail Price Index MoM important for UK economic analysis?: RPI MoM tracks monthly changes in retail prices, offering insight into inflation trends and informing monetary policy and market expectations.

January’s RPI MoM drop marks a decisive shift in UK inflation momentum.

Updated 2/18/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

UK Office for National Statistics, Retail Price Index MoM, January 2026 release; Sigmanomics database, accessed February 18, 2026.

Economic Calendar - UK Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-12	-10	-9	-8.83	Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.35	Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.59	6.62	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.40	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.12	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	44.5	46.4	47	47.23	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	7.2	3.4	1	3.08	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.9	53.92	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	53.7	53.9	53.93	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.1	1.5	1.4	1.52	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	5.9	6.1	3.8	4.67	Low
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.812	1.652	1.2	1.40	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.8	52	52.07	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.08	4.49	4.2	4.18	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.10	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	60	61.01	62.5	61.54	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.38	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.17	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	1	1.1	0.90	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-8.2	17.7	5.3	3.77	Low
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-19	-16	-16	-16.50	Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-17	-30	-43.00	Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-43	-17	-17	-30.00	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.9	54	53.6	53.70	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.50	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52	51.8	51.9	51.92	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.33	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52	51.8	51.5	51.57	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.5	53.52	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	30.4	-13.4	19	21.44	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	4.5	1.9	2.7	2.97	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	2	0.3	0.1	0.47	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.48	High
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-28	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	2.4	2.5	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.4	-0.4	-0.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.1	3.2	3	2.98	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	-0.63	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3	3.4	3	2.92	High
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.4	-0.5	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.2	3.9	3.75	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-0.2	0.5	0.9	0.80	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0	-0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	2.5	3.1	3.2	3.03	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.30	Low
07:00	UK	CPI	3	3.4	3	3.00	High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.6	2.7	22	22.30	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	52	82	-40	0.50	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.45	Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-2.7	1.6	0.5	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	0.5	1.3	1.2	1.63	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.25	Low
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-4.34	-11.33	-6	-6.24	Low
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-0.3	-0.3	-0.8	-0.98	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	0.5	2.3	1.6	2.00	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.9	1.3	-0.2	-0.13	Medium
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2	2.5	3.1	3.33	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.5	1.9	-0.3	0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.25	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-0.5	-0.8	0.5	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-10	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	2.3	1	1.3	1.25	Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1	0.3	0	0.30	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.38	Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.62	6.77	6.7	6.71	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	5	4	7	6.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	0	0	0	0.00	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	4	5	2	2.50	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	46.4	40.1	42.5	42.73	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.4	3.9	2	4.08	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	51.4	53.9	53.93	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	54	51.4	54.3	54.32	Low
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.8	50.6	51.6	51.67	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	-0.4	0.6	0.47	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	0.6	1.5	1.30	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	61.01	64.07	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.524	2.143	1.9	2.10	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.80	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.6	4.59	4.6	4.58	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.1	6.6	6.1	6.28	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	17.7	-14.3	6.7	5.17	Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.5	0.7	0.7	0.82	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.7	51.90	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50.6	50.8	50.82	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.5	51.60	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	-	51.4	51.7	51.72	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6	50.6	50.67	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-	-0.1	-0.2	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	0.6	0.8	1.07	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	0.7	0.50	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-0.2	-0.3	0.08	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-	-17	-17	-17.50	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-44	-57	-70.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-	-11.65	-15	-12.56	Low
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	-	-11.65	-13.5	-13.50	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-32	-28	-28.00	Medium
11:00	UK	CBI Business Optimism Index	-	-31	-27	-27.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	1.7	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	-	3.5	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.18	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.08	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-	1.1	1	0.90	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	-	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	-	0	0.1	0.10	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-	-0.4	0.2	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	-	3.4	3.3	3.13	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	-	3.8	3.7	3.55	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	-	0.3	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.03	High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.55	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-43	-38	-20	-25.25	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	82	-16	-25	15.50	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	17.9	20.1	20.5	20.80	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
12:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
07:00	UK	GDP 3-Month Avg	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	2.1	0.4	0.5	0.85	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	-11.46	-11.81	-9.1	-10.28	High
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-6.116	-6.531	-3.5	-3.74	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	0.4	-0.4	-0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	2.1	-0.2	-0.3	0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance	-23.71	-24.17	-20.4	-22.05	High
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-1.1	0.9	0.1	-0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.05	High
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-1.3	-1.2	-0.3	-0.80	Low
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-14	-14	-16	-15.83	Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	1	1.2	0.6	0.55	High
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.77	6.81	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.40	Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	40.1	39.4	40.1	40.33	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.4	51.2	52.1	52.13	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	51.4	51.3	52.1	52.12	Low
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.9	-1.6	-1	1.08	Low
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	64.53	65.01	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	2.077	1.713	1.1	1.30	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	6.6	5.9	5.2	6.08	Low
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.00	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.49	4.16	4.5	4.48	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.6	5.4	5.2	5.38	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50.6	50.2	51.2	51.27	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	0.6	1.8	1.2	1.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.03	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-	0.3	0.4	0.27	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	-	1.8	1.5	1.30	Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	1.5	1.30	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	-	3	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-1	0.6	0.97	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-	-1.1	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Current Account	-12.1	-21.2	-21.3	-16.70	Medium
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.30	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.25	High
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2.7	3.2	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	1.5	-1.7	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-37	-34	-34.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-11.65	-21.19	-10	-7.56	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	0.68	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.17	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.40	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-0.2	-0.8	0.2	0.57	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-17	-19	-18	-18.50	Medium
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-14.3	-23.8	-7.6	-9.13	Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	49	59	49	48.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	59	49	59	59.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	9	9	9	9.00	Medium
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-32	-37	-35	-35.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.4	-0.1	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.3	0	0.2	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.4	3.4	3.38	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.42	High
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.4	0.3	0	-0.20	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.15	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.22	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	0	0.1	0	0.00	Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	51.2	50.2	51.2	51.23	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	52.1	51.2	51.9	52.10	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.1	51.3	52	52.10	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	52.1	51.3	51.6	51.62	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.9	4.4	4.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	20.1	-3.9	22.3	22.60	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-38	-22	-40	-45.25	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Employment Change	-16	-22	-60	-19.50	High
Monday, December 15, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.2	50.2	48.2	48.27	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.1	51.2	51.6	51.63	Low