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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM held to 0.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM held to 0.6% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.23%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.6% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.43%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.47%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index MoM has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 14) and Industrial Production MoM (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Price Index MoM - UK
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About Retail Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This index is used by policymakers, businesses, and investors to track inflation and consumer spending trends, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. A higher Retail Price Index MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices, making it an important tool for decision-making in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.69) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -9.66 | -9.9 | -9.90 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -3.45 | -3.6 | -2.17 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -20.97 | -21.8 | -19.33 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Low | |