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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM fell to 0.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM fell to 0.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from April's 0.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.3%. Retail Price Index MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 37th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at -0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 13) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Retail Price Index MoM - UK
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About Retail Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This index is used by policymakers, businesses, and investors to track inflation and consumer spending trends, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. A higher Retail Price Index MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices, making it an important tool for decision-making in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |