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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom RICS House Price Balance fell to -32.0% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance fell to -32.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 4.0% from August's -28.0% reading. The reading missed the -30.0% consensus by 2.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -21.25%. Over the past 3 months, RICS House Price Balance averaged -29.0%, vs -34.5% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-32
Actual
-30
Consensus
-28
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -29
Actual: -32
Error: +3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RICS House Price Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -32% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -30% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -28%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -23%, ranging from -35% to -10% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -30%, down from the prior three at -27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 15.34%). In October readings over the past 3 years, RICS House Price Balance has averaged -12%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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RICS House Price Balance - UK
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About RICS House Price Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The RICS House Price Balance is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and direction of the housing market in the United Kingdom. It is based on a monthly survey of property professionals and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of house prices. This indicator is used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the strength of the housing sector and make informed decisions. A positive balance indicates rising house prices, while a negative balance suggests a decline. The RICS House Price Balance is a key tool for monitoring the state of the UK housing market and is highly regarded for its accuracy and reliability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -32 %, consensus -30 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -28 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -30 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |