Key Takeaways: UK RICS House Price Balance fell to -12% in February from -10% in January, marking the sharpest drop since November. The 12-month average stands at -14.8%. Market sentiment remains cautious as downside risks persist.

UK RICS House Price Balance Dips Further in February: Market Sentiment Softens

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance, a leading gauge of UK housing market sentiment, registered a steeper decline in February 2026. The latest reading highlights persistent headwinds for property values, with broader implications for the UK economy and financial markets.

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

London and South East: continued price softness
Mortgage approvals: subdued activity
New buyer enquiries: negative momentum

Policy pulse

February's -12% reading remains well below the Bank of England's price stability threshold, underscoring ongoing market fragility.

Market lens

Market participants responded with muted optimism, as the decline was broadly in line with expectations. The persistent negative balance signals that more surveyors reported falling rather than rising prices, reinforcing a cautious tone across the sector.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

February 2026: -12%
January 2026: -10%
December 2025: -16%
12-month average: -14.8%
August 2025 (six months ago): -13%
November 2025 (three months ago): -19%

Market lens

February's reading reversed January's modest improvement. The indicator remains above November's low but below the 12-month average, highlighting a fragile recovery.

Policy pulse

With the RICS balance still negative, policymakers face limited scope for tightening, as affordability and demand remain under pressure.

Chart Dynamics

      February's -12% print compares to January's -10% and a 12-month average of -14.8%. The indicator has hovered in negative territory for 21 consecutive months. The sharpest recent drop occurred in November 2025 at -19%, while the smallest decline was July 2025 at -7%.

      The latest data shows a modest deterioration from January, interrupting the short-lived improvement seen at the start of the year. The overall trend since mid-2025 remains negative, with only brief pauses in the downward momentum.
    

Line chart showing RICS House Price Balance monthly values from March 2025 to February 2026, ranging from -19% to -7%, with February 2026 at -12%. — RICS House Price Balance trend (March 2025–February 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The RICS House Price Balance remains in negative territory, reflecting persistent weakness in UK housing sentiment. While the pace of decline has moderated since November, the lack of a sustained rebound points to ongoing caution among surveyors and buyers.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20–30%): Spring demand and easing rates lift the balance toward -7% by May.
Base case (50–60%): Indicator stabilizes between -10% and -14% through Q2 as affordability constraints persist.
Bearish (15–25%): Further economic headwinds push the balance below -16%, revisiting December's levels.

Market lens

Short-term sentiment remains cautious, with little evidence of a decisive turnaround. Upside risks hinge on improved credit conditions, while downside risks include weak wage growth and persistent inflation.

Policy pulse

With the RICS balance still negative, the Bank of England is likely to maintain a supportive stance, monitoring for signs of stabilization before considering any policy shift.

Closing Thoughts

Key takeaways

RICS House Price Balance fell to -12% in February, reversing January's improvement.
12-month average remains negative at -14.8%.
Market sentiment is subdued, with limited signs of near-term recovery.

Market lens

Investors and policymakers are watching for stabilization, but the latest data reinforce a cautious outlook for UK housing. The indicator's trajectory will remain a key barometer for broader economic health in the months ahead.

Key Markets Reacting to RICS House Price Balance

The RICS House Price Balance often influences UK-focused equities and currency pairs, as housing sentiment is closely tied to consumer confidence and lending activity. Below are tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to the UK housing market, each verified from Sigmanomics listings.

AAPL: Indirect exposure via UK consumer electronics demand, which can correlate with housing market cycles.
EURUSD: Sensitive to UK macro data through cross-market flows and risk sentiment.
BTCUSD: Sometimes viewed as a hedge during periods of UK economic uncertainty.

Year	RICS House Price Balance	EURUSD Direction
2020	-32%	Up
2021	+18%	Flat
2022	-2%	Down
2023	-13%	Down
2024	-15%	Up
2025	-14.8%	Flat

Since 2020, periods of sharp RICS declines have often coincided with EURUSD volatility, reflecting broader risk sentiment shifts.

FAQ: UK RICS House Price Balance Dips Further in February: Market Sentiment Softens

What does the latest RICS House Price Balance reading indicate?: The February 2026 reading of -12% signals continued weakness in UK housing sentiment, reversing January's modest improvement.
How does this month's figure compare to the 12-month average?: February's -12% is above the 12-month average of -14.8%, but still reflects a negative trend for the sector.
Why is the RICS House Price Balance closely watched by markets?: It serves as a leading indicator for UK property values and consumer confidence, impacting equities, currencies, and policy expectations.

UK housing sentiment remains fragile, with the RICS House Price Balance underscoring persistent downside risks for early 2026.

Updated 3/12/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

[1] RICS House Price Balance, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, accessed 3/12/26.
[2] Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, UK Housing Indicators, accessed 3/12/26.

Economic Calendar - UK Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-12	-10	-9	-8.83	Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.35	Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.59	6.62	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.40	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.12	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	44.5	46.4	47	47.23	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	7.2	3.4	1	3.08	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.9	53.92	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	53.7	53.9	53.93	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.1	1.5	1.4	1.52	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	5.9	6.1	3.8	4.67	Low
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.812	1.652	1.2	1.40	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.8	52	52.07	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.08	4.49	4.2	4.18	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.10	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	60	61.01	62.5	61.54	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.38	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.17	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	1	1.1	0.90	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-8.2	17.7	5.3	3.77	Low
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-19	-16	-16	-16.50	Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-17	-30	-43.00	Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-43	-17	-17	-30.00	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.9	54	53.6	53.70	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.50	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52	51.8	51.9	51.92	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.33	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52	51.8	51.5	51.57	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.5	53.52	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	30.4	-13.4	19	21.44	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	4.5	1.9	2.7	2.97	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	2	0.3	0.1	0.47	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.48	High
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-28	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	2.4	2.5	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.4	-0.4	-0.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.1	3.2	3	2.98	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	-0.63	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3	3.4	3	2.92	High
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.4	-0.5	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.2	3.9	3.75	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-0.2	0.5	0.9	0.80	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0	-0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	2.5	3.1	3.2	3.03	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.30	Low
07:00	UK	CPI	3	3.4	3	3.00	High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.6	2.7	22	22.30	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	52	82	-40	0.50	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.45	Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-2.7	1.6	0.5	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	0.5	1.3	1.2	1.63	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.25	Low
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-4.34	-11.33	-6	-6.24	Low
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-0.3	-0.3	-0.8	-0.98	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	0.5	2.3	1.6	2.00	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.9	1.3	-0.2	-0.13	Medium
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2	2.5	3.1	3.33	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.5	1.9	-0.3	0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.25	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-0.5	-0.8	0.5	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-10	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	2.3	1	1.3	1.25	Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1	0.3	0	0.30	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.38	Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.62	6.77	6.7	6.71	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	5	4	7	6.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	0	0	0	0.00	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	4	5	2	2.50	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	46.4	40.1	42.5	42.73	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.4	3.9	2	4.08	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	51.4	53.9	53.93	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	54	51.4	54.3	54.32	Low
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.8	50.6	51.6	51.67	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	-0.4	0.6	0.47	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	0.6	1.5	1.30	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	61.01	64.07	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.524	2.143	1.9	2.10	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.80	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.6	4.59	4.6	4.58	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.1	6.6	6.1	6.28	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	17.7	-14.3	6.7	5.17	Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.5	0.7	0.7	0.82	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.7	51.90	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50.6	50.8	50.82	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.5	51.60	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	-	51.4	51.7	51.72	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6	50.6	50.67	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-	-0.1	-0.2	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	0.6	0.8	1.07	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	0.7	0.50	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-0.2	-0.3	0.08	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-	-17	-17	-17.50	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-44	-57	-70.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-	-11.65	-15	-12.56	Low
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	-	-11.65	-13.5	-13.50	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-32	-28	-28.00	Medium
11:00	UK	CBI Business Optimism Index	-	-31	-27	-27.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	1.7	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	-	3.5	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.18	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.08	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-	1.1	1	0.90	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	-	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	-	0	0.1	0.10	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-	-0.4	0.2	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	-	3.4	3.3	3.13	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	-	3.8	3.7	3.55	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	-	0.3	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.03	High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.55	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-43	-38	-20	-25.25	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	82	-16	-25	15.50	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	17.9	20.1	20.5	20.80	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
12:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
07:00	UK	GDP 3-Month Avg	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	2.1	0.4	0.5	0.85	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	-11.46	-11.81	-9.1	-10.28	High
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-6.116	-6.531	-3.5	-3.74	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	0.4	-0.4	-0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	2.1	-0.2	-0.3	0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance	-23.71	-24.17	-20.4	-22.05	High
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-1.1	0.9	0.1	-0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.05	High
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-1.3	-1.2	-0.3	-0.80	Low
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-14	-14	-16	-15.83	Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	1	1.2	0.6	0.55	High
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.77	6.81	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.40	Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	40.1	39.4	40.1	40.33	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.4	51.2	52.1	52.13	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	51.4	51.3	52.1	52.12	Low
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.9	-1.6	-1	1.08	Low
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	64.53	65.01	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	2.077	1.713	1.1	1.30	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	6.6	5.9	5.2	6.08	Low
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.00	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.49	4.16	4.5	4.48	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.6	5.4	5.2	5.38	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50.6	50.2	51.2	51.27	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	0.6	1.8	1.2	1.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.03	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-	0.3	0.4	0.27	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	-	1.8	1.5	1.30	Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	1.5	1.30	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	-	3	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-1	0.6	0.97	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-	-1.1	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Current Account	-12.1	-21.2	-21.3	-16.70	Medium
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.30	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.25	High
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2.7	3.2	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	1.5	-1.7	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-37	-34	-34.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-11.65	-21.19	-10	-7.56	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	0.68	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.17	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.40	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-0.2	-0.8	0.2	0.57	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-17	-19	-18	-18.50	Medium
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-14.3	-23.8	-7.6	-9.13	Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	49	59	49	48.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	59	49	59	59.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	9	9	9	9.00	Medium
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-32	-37	-35	-35.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.4	-0.1	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.3	0	0.2	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.4	3.4	3.38	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.42	High
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.4	0.3	0	-0.20	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.15	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.22	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	0	0.1	0	0.00	Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	51.2	50.2	51.2	51.23	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	52.1	51.2	51.9	52.10	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.1	51.3	52	52.10	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	52.1	51.3	51.6	51.62	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.9	4.4	4.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	20.1	-3.9	22.3	22.60	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-38	-22	-40	-45.25	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Employment Change	-16	-22	-60	-19.50	High
Monday, December 15, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.2	50.2	48.2	48.27	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.1	51.2	51.6	51.63	Low