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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom RICS House Price Balance held to -35.0% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance held to -35.0% in May 2026, released June 2026. The reading missed the -31.0% consensus by 4.0%. RICS House Price Balance has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, RICS House Price Balance averaged -28.5%, vs -12.0% in the prior 3-month window. RICS House Price Balance is now the lowest in 29 months.
Latest Release
-35
Actual
-31
Consensus
-35
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -34
Actual: -35
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RICS House Price Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -35% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -31% by 4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -17.64%, ranging from -35% to -7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -27%, down from the prior three at -13.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.64%) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.66%). In June readings over the past 3 years, RICS House Price Balance has averaged -20%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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RICS House Price Balance - UK
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About RICS House Price Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The RICS House Price Balance is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and direction of the housing market in the United Kingdom. It is based on a monthly survey of property professionals and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of house prices. This indicator is used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the strength of the housing sector and make informed decisions. A positive balance indicates rising house prices, while a negative balance suggests a decline. The RICS House Price Balance is a key tool for monitoring the state of the UK housing market and is highly regarded for its accuracy and reliability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -35 %, consensus -31 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -34 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -23 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.