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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ADP Employment Change climbed to 90K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ADP Employment Change climbed to 90K in September 2026, up 54K from August's 36K reading. The print exceeded the 70K consensus by 20K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 44.42K. Over the past 3 months, ADP Employment Change averaged 41K, vs 115.5K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
90
Actual
70
Consensus
36
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 61.25
Actual: 90
Error: -28.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ADP Employment Change (United States) was reported at 90 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 70 thousand by 20 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 36 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49 thousand, ranging from -32 thousand to 122 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 57 thousand, down from the prior three at 82 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 39 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 71 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, ADP Employment Change has averaged 70 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Oct 16) and Export Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ADP Employment Change - US
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About ADP Employment Change — United States
DEFINITION
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in non-farm private-sector employment in the United States, derived from anonymized payroll data covering approximately 25 million workers. It is published by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
ADP is released two business days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and is used by markets as an early read on the broader labor-market figure. While ADP and NFP often diverge month-to-month due to methodology differences, ADP shapes pre-NFP positioning and front-runs Fed-policy-sensitive moves in rates and FX.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | positive | medium | Strong ADP supports hawkish Fed expectations |
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on strong print |
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Growth vs rate-impact tension |
FAQ
- How does ADP differ from NFP?
- ADP covers private-sector payroll data only and uses ADP's own payroll-processing dataset; NFP is a BLS survey covering both public and private sectors.
- When is ADP released?
- Typically the Wednesday before the first Friday of each month at 8:15 AM ET.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 90 K, consensus 70 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 38 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 44 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 24.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 193.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | 1 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 7.9 | 8.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 75.2 | 75.20 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |