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US ADP Employment Change climbed to 122K in May 2026, released June 2026, up 17K from April's 105K reading. The reading matched the 117K consensus. ADP Employment Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ADP Employment Change averaged 85.5K, vs 42K in the prior 3-month window. ADP Employment Change is now the highest in 13 months.
across last 12 releases
Jun 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
ADP Employment Change (United States) was reported at 122 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 117 thousand by 5 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 105 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45 thousand, ranging from -32 thousand to 122 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The trailing three releases averaged 82 thousand, up from the prior three at 10 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 47 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 52 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, ADP Employment Change has averaged 104 thousand.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 35 thousand.
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in non-farm private-sector employment in the United States, derived from anonymized payroll data covering approximately 25 million workers. It is published by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
ADP is released two business days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and is used by markets as an early read on the broader labor-market figure. While ADP and NFP often diverge month-to-month due to methodology differences, ADP shapes pre-NFP positioning and front-runs Fed-policy-sensitive moves in rates and FX.
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | positive | medium | Strong ADP supports hawkish Fed expectations |
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on strong print |
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Growth vs rate-impact tension |
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 122 K, consensus 117 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 109 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 62 K.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Medium | ||
| 13:15 | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.2 | 76.25 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.55 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.35 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 37 | 37.50 | Medium | ||
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Building Permits MoM | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.423 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 6 | 6.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | -2 | -2.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.44 | 1.44 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 11.9 | 11.90 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.45 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | ||
| 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||