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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ADP Employment Change climbed to 122K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ADP Employment Change climbed to 122K in May 2026, released June 2026, up 17K from April's 105K reading. The reading matched the 117K consensus. ADP Employment Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ADP Employment Change averaged 85.5K, vs 42K in the prior 3-month window. ADP Employment Change is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
122
Actual
117
Consensus
105
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±34.79 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 128
Actual: 122
Error: +6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ADP Employment Change (United States) was reported at 122 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 117 thousand by 5 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 105 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45 thousand, ranging from -32 thousand to 122 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 82 thousand, up from the prior three at 10 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 47 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 53 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, ADP Employment Change has averaged 104 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 35 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ADP Employment Change - US
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About ADP Employment Change — United States
DEFINITION
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in non-farm private-sector employment in the United States, derived from anonymized payroll data covering approximately 25 million workers. It is published by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
ADP is released two business days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and is used by markets as an early read on the broader labor-market figure. While ADP and NFP often diverge month-to-month due to methodology differences, ADP shapes pre-NFP positioning and front-runs Fed-policy-sensitive moves in rates and FX.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | positive | medium | Strong ADP supports hawkish Fed expectations |
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on strong print |
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Growth vs rate-impact tension |
FAQ
- How does ADP differ from NFP?
- ADP covers private-sector payroll data only and uses ADP's own payroll-processing dataset; NFP is a BLS survey covering both public and private sectors.
- When is ADP released?
- Typically the Wednesday before the first Friday of each month at 8:15 AM ET.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 122 K, consensus 117 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 109 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 62 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |