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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ADP Employment Change fell to 38K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ADP Employment Change fell to 38K in August 2026, released September 2026, down 8K from July's 46K reading. The reading missed the 47K consensus by 9K. ADP Employment Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. ADP Employment Change is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
38
Actual
47
Consensus
46
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 34
Actual: 38
Error: -4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ADP Employment Change (United States) was reported at 38 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 47 thousand by 9 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 46 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37 thousand, ranging from -32 thousand to 122 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 68 thousand, up from the prior three at 49 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 43 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 57 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, ADP Employment Change has averaged 64 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ADP Employment Change - US
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About ADP Employment Change — United States
DEFINITION
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in non-farm private-sector employment in the United States, derived from anonymized payroll data covering approximately 25 million workers. It is published by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
ADP is released two business days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and is used by markets as an early read on the broader labor-market figure. While ADP and NFP often diverge month-to-month due to methodology differences, ADP shapes pre-NFP positioning and front-runs Fed-policy-sensitive moves in rates and FX.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | positive | medium | Strong ADP supports hawkish Fed expectations |
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on strong print |
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Growth vs rate-impact tension |
FAQ
- How does ADP differ from NFP?
- ADP covers private-sector payroll data only and uses ADP's own payroll-processing dataset; NFP is a BLS survey covering both public and private sectors.
- When is ADP released?
- Typically the Wednesday before the first Friday of each month at 8:15 AM ET.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 38 K, consensus 47 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 44 K. Before that (May 2026): 122 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |