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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 4.3% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 4.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.5% from June's 5.8% reading. The reading missed the 5.8% consensus by 1.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Atlanta Fed GDPNow averaged 3.6%, vs 2.51% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
5.8
Consensus
5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 5.78
Actual: 4.3
Error: +1.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (United States) was reported at 4.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.8% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.49%, ranging from 1.5% to 6.2% across 59 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.33%, up from the prior three at 4.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.09%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.48%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Atlanta Fed GDPNow has averaged 3.62%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Aug 18) and Import Prices MoM (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow - US
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About Atlanta Fed GDPNow — United States
DEFINITION
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow for August registered at 4.300000%, missing the previous 5.800000% estimate and prior reading. This marks a significant decline from July’s 5.800000%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum. Markets are adjusting to this softer data ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve communications. Updated 8/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 5.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15.6 | 11 | 15.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 231.2 | 151.4 | 162.05 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | 19 | -4.7 | -4.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.427 | 1.35 | 1.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 10.2 | 9.6 | 9.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1808 | 1804.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 211.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |