Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 3.3% in October 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 3.3% in October 2026, down 0.1% from September's 3.4% reading. The reading matched the 3.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.66%. Over the past 3 months, Atlanta Fed GDPNow averaged 4.3%, vs 3.04% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.16
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (United States) was reported at 3.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.69%, ranging from 1.5% to 6.2% across 63 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.3%, down from the prior three at 3.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.37%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Atlanta Fed GDPNow has averaged 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow - US
Loading chart data...
About Atlanta Fed GDPNow — United States
DEFINITION
The US Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for October stands at 3.200000%, down from September’s 3.300000%, indicating a slight slowdown in growth momentum. This marks a continued downward revision from earlier October readings near 3.7%, reflecting tempered economic activity expectations. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation amid ongoing central bank policy considerations. Updated 10/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Oct 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |