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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.5% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.5% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from March's 1.6% reading. The reading missed the 1.6% consensus by 0.1%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Atlanta Fed GDPNow averaged 3.19%, vs 2.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.56
Actual: 1.5
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (United States) was reported at 5% in July 2026. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.23%, ranging from 1.5% to 5.4% across 59 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.6%, down from the prior three at 2.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.93%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.59%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Atlanta Fed GDPNow has averaged 2.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow - US
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About Atlanta Fed GDPNow — United States
DEFINITION
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow surged to 5.000000% in July, sharply above June's final 1.5%. This marks a significant acceleration from June's downward revisions, reversing a prior contraction trend. Markets will closely watch this rebound amid ongoing monetary policy adjustments. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |