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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings MoM held to 0.3% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings MoM held to 0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Earnings MoM averaged 0.25%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.09%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings MoM - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average hourly wages of workers in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current state of the labor market and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. A positive change in Average Hourly Earnings MoM indicates an increase in wages, which can lead to higher consumer spending and economic growth. On the other hand, a negative change may suggest a decrease in wages and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it reflects the purchasing power of workers and their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |