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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings MoM climbed to 0.3% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings MoM climbed to 0.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.1% from April's 0.2% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Earnings MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings MoM - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average hourly wages of workers in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current state of the labor market and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. A positive change in Average Hourly Earnings MoM indicates an increase in wages, which can lead to higher consumer spending and economic growth. On the other hand, a negative change may suggest a decrease in wages and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it reflects the purchasing power of workers and their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.