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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.1% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.1% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 3.2% reading. The reading matched the 3.0% consensus. Average Hourly Earnings YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Earnings YoY averaged 3.35%, vs 3.5% in the prior 3-month window. Average Hourly Earnings YoY is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.93
Actual: 3.1
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (United States) was reported at 3.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 3.1% to 3.8% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, down from the prior three at 3.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings YoY has averaged 3.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings YoY - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average hourly wages of workers over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall trend of wage growth in an economy and is often used as a gauge of consumer spending power and inflationary pressures. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact economic growth and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |