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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.4% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from April's 3.6% reading. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.75%. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Earnings YoY averaged 3.55%, vs 3.75% in the prior 3-month window. Average Hourly Earnings YoY is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.4
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (United States) was reported at 3.4% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.73%, ranging from 3.4% to 3.9% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, down from the prior three at 3.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings YoY has averaged 3.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings YoY - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average hourly wages of workers over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall trend of wage growth in an economy and is often used as a gauge of consumer spending power and inflationary pressures. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact economic growth and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.