Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.0% in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings YoY fell to 3.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 3.1% reading. The reading missed the 3.2% consensus by 0.2%. Average Hourly Earnings YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Earnings YoY averaged 3.15%, vs 3.5% in the prior 3-month window. Average Hourly Earnings YoY is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.15
Actual: 3
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (United States) was reported at 3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.5%, ranging from 3% to 3.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, down from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.29%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct 19) and Housing Starts (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Average Hourly Earnings YoY - US
Loading chart data...
About Average Hourly Earnings YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average hourly wages of workers over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall trend of wage growth in an economy and is often used as a gauge of consumer spending power and inflationary pressures. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact economic growth and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.60 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 8.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 8.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 10.50 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1.60 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.9 | 76.4 | 76.5 | 76.70 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -167 | -29 | -28.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 279.2 | -27.9 | 75.2 | 177.20 | Medium |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.275 | 1.3 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.6 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -4.7 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |