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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Balance of Trade climbed to -55.9B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Balance of Trade climbed to -55.9B in April 2026, released June 2026, up 0.7B from March's -56.6B reading. The reading matched the -56.1B consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -73.97B, vs -52.33B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-55.9
Actual
-56.1
Consensus
-56.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±15.23 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -55.15
Actual: -55.9
Error: +0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (United States) was reported at -55.90 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -56.10 billion by 0.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -56.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -60.14 billion, ranging from -80.80 billion to -29.40 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -64.67 billion, down from the prior three at -52.17 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.77 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 529.90 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -127.40 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 15.23 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - US
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About Balance of Trade — United States
DEFINITION
The US Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of US exports and imports of goods and services, reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau. A negative balance (trade deficit) indicates imports exceed exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The trade balance is a key input to GDP (net exports contribute to GDP) and a barometer of US competitiveness and global demand. Persistent deficits influence USD strength expectations and inform tariff/trade-policy discussions. Wide swings can move equity sectors with international exposure.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | mixed | low | Trade-flow effects often outweighed by rate differentials |
| Industrials | positive | medium | Export-heavy sectors benefit from narrowing deficit |
FAQ
- Why does the US run a trade deficit?
- Structural factors include strong domestic consumption, USD reserve-currency status (capital inflows), and global supply-chain specialization.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -55.9 M, consensus -56.1 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -60.3 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -57.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.