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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Balance of Trade fell to -77.6B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Balance of Trade fell to -77.6B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 23.0B from April's -54.6B reading. The reading matched the -78.5B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -62.23B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -58.1B, vs -63.62B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-77.6
Actual
-78.5
Consensus
-54.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.3 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -78.4
Actual: -77.6
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (United States) was reported at -77.60 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -78.50 billion by 0.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -54.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -61.73 billion, ranging from -80.80 billion to -29.40 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -63.60 billion, up from the prior three at -69.30 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.06 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 569.36 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -249.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.30 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - US
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About Balance of Trade — United States
DEFINITION
The US Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of US exports and imports of goods and services, reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau. A negative balance (trade deficit) indicates imports exceed exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The trade balance is a key input to GDP (net exports contribute to GDP) and a barometer of US competitiveness and global demand. Persistent deficits influence USD strength expectations and inform tariff/trade-policy discussions. Wide swings can move equity sectors with international exposure.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | mixed | low | Trade-flow effects often outweighed by rate differentials |
| Industrials | positive | medium | Export-heavy sectors benefit from narrowing deficit |
FAQ
- Why does the US run a trade deficit?
- Structural factors include strong domestic consumption, USD reserve-currency status (capital inflows), and global supply-chain specialization.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -77.6 M, consensus -78.5 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -55.9 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -60.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.50) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |