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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Balance of Trade fell to -60.3 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Balance of Trade fell to -60.3 in March 2026, released May 2026, down 2.5 from February's -57.8 reading. The reading matched the -60.9 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -74.48. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -77.3, vs -49.65 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-60.3
Actual
-60.9
Consensus
-57.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±15.65 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2026
Predicted: -59.63
Actual: -57.3
Error: -2.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The May 2026 reading fell from the previous value of -57.8. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±15.65. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP) and positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU).
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Balance of Trade - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 211 | 199 | 205 | 208.00 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1758 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.20 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.75 | 203 | 203.5 | 203.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 63 | 85 | 85.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.85 | Medium |
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 11 | 7.5 | 11.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 75.7 | 75.8 | 75.95 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.75 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 0.76 | 0.4 | 0.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 34 | 31.50 | Medium | |