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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Balance of Trade fell to -88.6B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Balance of Trade fell to -88.6B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 17.4B from June's -71.2B reading. The reading matched the -90B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -64.66B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -68.93B, vs -73.97B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-88.6
Actual
-90
Consensus
-71.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -89.87
Actual: -88.6
Error: -1.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (United States) was reported at -88.60 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -90.00 billion by 1.40 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -71.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -63.85 billion, ranging from -88.60 billion to -29.40 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -79.83 billion, down from the prior three at -64.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.67 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 593.82 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -280.70 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - US
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About Balance of Trade — United States
DEFINITION
The US Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of US exports and imports of goods and services, reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau. A negative balance (trade deficit) indicates imports exceed exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The trade balance is a key input to GDP (net exports contribute to GDP) and a barometer of US competitiveness and global demand. Persistent deficits influence USD strength expectations and inform tariff/trade-policy discussions. Wide swings can move equity sectors with international exposure.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | mixed | low | Trade-flow effects often outweighed by rate differentials |
| Industrials | positive | medium | Export-heavy sectors benefit from narrowing deficit |
FAQ
- Why does the US run a trade deficit?
- Structural factors include strong domestic consumption, USD reserve-currency status (capital inflows), and global supply-chain specialization.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -88.6 M, consensus -90 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -73.3 M. Before that (May 2026): -77.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |