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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Balance of Trade fell to -105.6B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Balance of Trade fell to -105.6B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 12.8B from July's -92.8B reading. The reading matched the -102B consensus. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -80.95B, vs -64.6B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 16 months.
Latest Release
-105.6
Actual
-102
Consensus
-92.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -101.73
Actual: -105.6
Error: +3.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (United States) was reported at -105.60 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -102.00 billion by 3.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -92.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -67.33 billion, ranging from -105.60 billion to -29.40 billion across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -89.17 billion, down from the prior three at -63.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 18.93 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 649.85 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -225.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - US
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About Balance of Trade — United States
DEFINITION
The US Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of US exports and imports of goods and services, reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau. A negative balance (trade deficit) indicates imports exceed exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The trade balance is a key input to GDP (net exports contribute to GDP) and a barometer of US competitiveness and global demand. Persistent deficits influence USD strength expectations and inform tariff/trade-policy discussions. Wide swings can move equity sectors with international exposure.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | mixed | low | Trade-flow effects often outweighed by rate differentials |
| Industrials | positive | medium | Export-heavy sectors benefit from narrowing deficit |
FAQ
- Why does the US run a trade deficit?
- Structural factors include strong domestic consumption, USD reserve-currency status (capital inflows), and global supply-chain specialization.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -105.6 M, consensus -102 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -88.6 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -73.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |