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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Budget Balance climbed to -120B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Budget Balance climbed to -120B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 173B from May's -293B reading. The print exceeded the -135.8B consensus by 15.8B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -166.08B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -39B, vs -218.75B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 71st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-120
Actual
-135.8
Consensus
-293
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±37.18 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -123.88
Actual: -120
Error: -3.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (United States) was reported at -120.00 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -135.80 billion by 15.80 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -293.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -149.18 billion, ranging from -345.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -66.00 billion, up from the prior three at -182.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 185.88 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 184.93 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 37.18 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Budget Balance - US
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About Budget Balance — United States
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -120 B, consensus -132.8 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -293 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 215 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.75) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |