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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Budget Balance fell to -293B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Budget Balance fell to -293B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 508B from April's 215B reading. The reading matched the -282.9B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -139.42B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged 25.5B, vs -214B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-293
Actual
-282.9
Consensus
215
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±37.18 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -254.0
Actual: -293
Error: +39
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (United States) was reported at -293.00 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -282.90 billion by 10.10 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 215.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -135.82 billion, ranging from -345.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -128.67 billion, up from the prior three at -137.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 192.66 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 191.81 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 37.18 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Budget Balance - US
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About Budget Balance — United States
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -293 B, consensus -282.9 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 215 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -164 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.