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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Budget Balance climbed to -27B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Budget Balance climbed to -27B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 140B from August's -167B reading. The print exceeded the -29B consensus by 2B. Budget Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -299.5B, vs -66B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-27
Actual
-29
Consensus
-167
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±37.66 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.33
Actual: -27
Error: +36.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (United States) was reported at -27.00 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -29.00 billion by 2.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -167.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -166.27 billion, ranging from -432.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -208.67 billion, down from the prior three at -66.00 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 163.23 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 205.65 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 37.66 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - US
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About Budget Balance — United States
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -27 B, consensus -29 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -167 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -432 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |