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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Building Permits fell to 1.4M in September 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Building Permits fell to 1.4M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.01M from August's 1.4M reading. The reading matched the 1.4M consensus. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits averaged 1.41M, vs 1.4M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.398
Actual
1.4
Consensus
1.403
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.01 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 1.4
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits (United States) was reported at 1.40 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.40 million by 0.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.40 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 577.60 million, ranging from -5.40 million to 1,538.00 million across 27 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.40 million, down from the prior three at 466.94 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 695.42 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 752.10 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Building Permits has averaged 474.11 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.01 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Building Permits - US
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About Building Permits — United States
DEFINITION
Building Permits is a key financial indicator that measures the number of permits issued by local governments for new construction projects. This indicator provides valuable insight into the health of the construction industry and the overall state of the economy. A high number of building permits indicates a strong demand for new construction, which can stimulate economic growth and job creation. On the other hand, a decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in the construction sector and a potential economic downturn. As such, Building Permits is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a reliable gauge of economic activity and future market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1,398 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1,403 Thousands. Before that (Jul 2026): 1,433 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |