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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Building Permits fell to 1.37M in June 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Building Permits fell to 1.37M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.04M from May's 1.41M reading. The reading matched the 1.37M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.22M. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits averaged 1.4M, vs 0.26M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.374
Actual
1.367
Consensus
1.41
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.16 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.37
Actual: 1.37
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits (United States) was reported at 1.37 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.37 million by 0.01 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.41 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 620.07 million, ranging from -5.40 million to 1,538.00 million across 25 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.38 million, down from the prior three at 458.96 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 699.68 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 747.35 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Building Permits has averaged 350.62 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.16 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Building Permits - US
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About Building Permits — United States
DEFINITION
Building Permits is a key financial indicator that measures the number of permits issued by local governments for new construction projects. This indicator provides valuable insight into the health of the construction industry and the overall state of the economy. A high number of building permits indicates a strong demand for new construction, which can stimulate economic growth and job creation. On the other hand, a decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in the construction sector and a potential economic downturn. As such, Building Permits is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a reliable gauge of economic activity and future market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1,374 Thousands. Prior reading (May 2026): 1,410 Thousands. Before that (Apr 2026): 1,423 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |