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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Building Permits fell to 1.39M in August 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Building Permits fell to 1.39M in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.04M from July's 1.43M reading. The reading matched the 1.39M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 3.69M. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits averaged 1.4M, vs 1.4M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.394
Actual
1.394
Consensus
1.433
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 1.39
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits (United States) was reported at 1.39 million in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.39 million exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.43 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 591.43 million, ranging from -5.40 million to 1,538.00 million across 24 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.41 million, down from the prior three at 468.61 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 698.68 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 741.95 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Building Permits has averaged 356.09 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Oct 16) and Export Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Building Permits - US
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About Building Permits — United States
DEFINITION
Building Permits is a key financial indicator that measures the number of permits issued by local governments for new construction projects. This indicator provides valuable insight into the health of the construction industry and the overall state of the economy. A high number of building permits indicates a strong demand for new construction, which can stimulate economic growth and job creation. On the other hand, a decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in the construction sector and a potential economic downturn. As such, Building Permits is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a reliable gauge of economic activity and future market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1,403 Thousands. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1,433 Thousands. Before that (Jun 2026): 1,374 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 24.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 193.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | 1 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 7.9 | 8.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 75.2 | 75.20 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |