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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Challenger Job Cuts fell to 43.28K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Challenger Job Cuts fell to 43.28K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 9.6K from August's 52.88K reading. The reading missed the 78K consensus by 34.72K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 63.66K. Over the past 3 months, Challenger Job Cuts averaged 43.16K, vs 87.93K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
43.281
Actual
78
Consensus
52.881
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±24.82 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 69.33
Actual: 43.28
Error: +26.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts (United States) was reported at 43 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 78 thousand by 35 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 53 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 61 thousand, ranging from 33 thousand to 108 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 43 thousand, down from the prior three at 69 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 25 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 67 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Challenger Job Cuts has averaged 56 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 25 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Challenger Job Cuts - US
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About Challenger Job Cuts — United States
DEFINITION
Challenger Job Cuts is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the number of announced job cuts by companies in the United States. This indicator provides valuable insight into the state of the job market and overall economic conditions, as well as potential trends in hiring and layoffs. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as a key indicator of the health of the labor market and the economy as a whole.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 43.28 K, consensus 78 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 52.88 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 33.43 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.82) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |