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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.14 from June's 0.06 reading. The reading missed the 0.1 consensus by 0.18. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.12. Over the past 3 months, Chicago Fed National Activity Index averaged -0.06, vs -0.06 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.08
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.06
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.11
Actual: -0.08
Error: +0.19
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (United States) was reported at -0.08 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.10 by 0.18. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.06. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.07, ranging from -0.21 to 0.14 across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07, down from the prior three at -0.06. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.18). In August readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Activity Index has averaged -0.20.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.20.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - US
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About Chicago Fed National Activity Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a comprehensive measure of overall economic activity in the United States. It takes into account a wide range of indicators, including employment, production, income, and consumption, to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the health of the national economy. This index is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses as a key indicator of economic growth and potential changes in monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.08, consensus 0.1. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.02. Before that (May 2026): -0.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -1.12 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.84 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.31 | 1.31 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1780 | 1785.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 208.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 47.4 | 30.5 | 30.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 206 | 206 | 206.13 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 49 | 48.00 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.4 | 76.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.08 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |