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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed to 0.14 in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed to 0.14 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.29 from March's -0.15 reading. The print exceeded the -0.3 consensus by 0.44. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.12. Over the past 3 months, Chicago Fed National Activity Index averaged -0.16, vs -0.13 in the prior 3-month window. Chicago Fed National Activity Index is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
0.14
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-0.15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.49
Actual: 0.14
Error: -0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (United States) was reported at 0.14 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.30 by 0.44. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.15. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.11, ranging from -0.28 to 0.14 across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.06, up from the prior three at -0.12. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.20). In May readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Activity Index has averaged -0.11.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - US
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About Chicago Fed National Activity Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a comprehensive measure of overall economic activity in the United States. It takes into account a wide range of indicators, including employment, production, income, and consumption, to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the health of the national economy. This index is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses as a key indicator of economic growth and potential changes in monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.14, consensus -0.3. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.2. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.11.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.45) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.