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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.2 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.2 in March 2026, released April 2026, down 0.23 from February's 0.03 reading. The reading missed the 0.2 consensus by 0.4. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.09. The reading is in the 36th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.03
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.28
Actual: -0.11
Error: +0.39
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The April 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 0.03. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.13. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT) and positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU).
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 211 | 199 | 205 | 208.00 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1758 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.20 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.75 | 203 | 203.5 | 203.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 63 | 85 | 85.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.85 | Medium |
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 11 | 7.5 | 11.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 75.7 | 75.8 | 75.95 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.75 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 0.76 | 0.4 | 0.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 34 | 31.50 | Medium | |