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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed to -0.02 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed to -0.02 in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.17 from May's -0.19 reading. The reading missed the 0.14 consensus by 0.16. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.12. Over the past 3 months, Chicago Fed National Activity Index averaged 0.02, vs -0.14 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 79th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.02
Actual
0.14
Consensus
-0.19
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: -0.02
Error: +0.21
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (United States) was reported at -0.02 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.14 by 0.16. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.19. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.08, ranging from -0.21 to 0.14 across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.01, up from the prior three at -0.12. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.10) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19). In July readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Activity Index has averaged -0.02.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.17.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - US
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About Chicago Fed National Activity Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a comprehensive measure of overall economic activity in the United States. It takes into account a wide range of indicators, including employment, production, income, and consumption, to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the health of the national economy. This index is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses as a key indicator of economic growth and potential changes in monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.02, consensus 0.14. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.1. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.14.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 56.7 | 56 | 56.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.20 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 55.4 | 50.7 | 54 | 54.70 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 54.8 | 47.7 | 54.9 | 54.85 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 55.2 | 49.5 | 54 | 54.60 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |