Loading page content
Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Construction Spending MoM fell to -0.5% in July 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Construction Spending MoM fell to -0.5% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.5% from June's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.5%. Construction Spending MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Construction Spending MoM is now the lowest in 42 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.80 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Spending MoM (United States) was reported at -0.5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.4% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Construction Spending MoM has averaged -0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Construction Spending MoM - US
Loading chart data...
About Construction Spending MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Construction Spending MoM is a financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the total amount of money spent on construction projects in a given country. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the construction industry and the overall economy, as increased spending on construction typically indicates growth and investment. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as a key measure of economic activity and future trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |