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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from April's 3.6% reading. The reading missed the 3.8% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.27%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectation averaged 3.5%, vs 3.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 3.5
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (United States) was reported at 3.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.8% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.21%, ranging from 3% to 3.5% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.2%, down from the prior three at 3.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.54%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - US
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — United States
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.