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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed to 3.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed to 3.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.2% from May's 3.5% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.26%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectation averaged 3.55%, vs 3.23% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Inflation Expectation is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.05
Actual: 3.7
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (United States) was reported at 3.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.29%, ranging from 3% to 3.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.4%, up from the prior three at 3.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.53%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - US
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — United States
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |