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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,774K in September 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,774K in September 2026, down 1K from August's 1,775K reading. The reading matched expectations. Over the past 3 months, Continuing Jobless Claims averaged 1,798K, vs 1,801.77K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1774
Actual
1780
Consensus
1775
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,407.45 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 924.4
Actual: 1,774
Error: -849.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 1,774 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1,780 thousand by 6 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,775 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,024,819 thousand, ranging from 1,774 thousand to 1,962,000 thousand across 90 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 592,518 thousand, down from the prior three at 592,859 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 916,130 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 943,191 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Continuing Jobless Claims has averaged 851,902 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,407 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Continuing Jobless Claims - US
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About Continuing Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Continuing Jobless Claims is a financial indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits and continue to receive them. This data is used to assess the health of the job market and can provide insights into the overall economic conditions. A high number of continuing jobless claims may indicate a weak job market, while a low number may suggest a strong job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact consumer spending, business confidence, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1,774,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1,775,000 Thousands. Before that (Aug 2026): 1,771,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |