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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,782K in July 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased July 2026
US Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,782K in July 2026, down 7K from June's 1,789K reading. The reading matched expectations. Continuing Jobless Claims has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Continuing Jobless Claims averaged 1,795.67K, vs 1,835.46K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 9th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1782
Actual
1800
Consensus
1789
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2,486.93 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 263.91
Actual: 1,796
Error: -1,532.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 1,782 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1,800 thousand by 18 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,789 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,036,832 thousand, ranging from 1,777 thousand to 1,962,000 thousand across 90 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 599,867 thousand, down from the prior three at 600,543 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 926,890 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 938,289 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, Continuing Jobless Claims has averaged 857,340 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2,487 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Continuing Jobless Claims - US
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About Continuing Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Continuing Jobless Claims is a financial indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits and continue to receive them. This data is used to assess the health of the job market and can provide insights into the overall economic conditions. A high number of continuing jobless claims may indicate a weak job market, while a low number may suggest a strong job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact consumer spending, business confidence, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1,796,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1,798,000 Thousands. Before that (Jun 2026): 1,821,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |