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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 0.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.2% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Core Inflation Rate MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from 0% to 0.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - US
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |