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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from May's 0.2% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Core Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (United States) was reported at 0% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.23%, ranging from 0% to 0.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - US
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |