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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from April's 0.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.23%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.35
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from 0.2% to 0.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - US
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.