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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 2.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. Core Inflation Rate YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.55%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.35
Actual: 2.4
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (United States) was reported at 2.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.64%, ranging from 2.4% to 3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, down from the prior three at 2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.75%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - US
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |