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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.9% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.9% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.1% from April's 2.8% reading. The reading matched expectations. Core Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.7%, vs 2.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.95
Actual: 2.9
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (United States) was reported at 2.9% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.8%, ranging from 2.5% to 3.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, up from the prior three at 2.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.74%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - US
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.