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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PPI YoY climbed to 5.0% in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Core PPI YoY climbed to 5.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's 4.8% reading. The print came in hotter than the 4.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Core PPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core PPI YoY averaged 4.4%, vs 5.05% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
4.4
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.4
Actual: 5
Error: -0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PPI YoY (United States) was reported at 5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.03%, ranging from 2.6% to 5.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.6%, down from the prior three at 4.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.85%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.32%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core PPI YoY - US
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About Core PPI YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core PPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for goods and services excluding food and energy. It provides insight into the overall trend of inflation in the production process, which can impact consumer prices and the overall economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal potential changes in the cost of goods and services.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |