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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PPI YoY held to 4.9% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Core PPI YoY held to 4.9% in May 2026, released June 2026. The print came in cooler than the 5.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.38%. Over the past 3 months, Core PPI YoY averaged 4.3%, vs 3.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
5.4
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 5.68
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PPI YoY (United States) was reported at 4.9% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.5%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 2.6% to 5.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.67%, up from the prior three at 3.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.86%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core PPI YoY has averaged 3.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core PPI YoY - US
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About Core PPI YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core PPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for goods and services excluding food and energy. It provides insight into the overall trend of inflation in the production process, which can impact consumer prices and the overall economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal potential changes in the cost of goods and services.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.