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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PPI YoY climbed to 4.6% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core PPI YoY climbed to 4.6% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 4.3% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.63%. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
4.6
Consensus
4.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.6
Actual: 4.6
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PPI YoY (United States) was reported at 4.6% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.6% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.92%, ranging from 2.6% to 5.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.57%, up from the prior three at 4.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.83%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core PPI YoY has averaged 3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core PPI YoY - US
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About Core PPI YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core PPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for goods and services excluding food and energy. It provides insight into the overall trend of inflation in the production process, which can impact consumer prices and the overall economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal potential changes in the cost of goods and services.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.6 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |