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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI climbed to 334.98% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US CPI climbed to 334.98% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.06% from July's 333.92% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 11.0%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 333.94%, vs 332.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
334.98
Actual
334.85
Consensus
333.92
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 334.75
Actual: 334.98
Error: -0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (United States) was reported at 334.98% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 334.85% by 0.13%. The reading rose from the previous value of 333.92%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 329.87%, ranging from 324.05% to 335.12% across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 334.34%, up from the prior three at 333.96%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.08%) is lower than the prior year (σ 61.6%). In September readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 322.55%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI - US
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About CPI — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI All Urban Consumers rose to 332.813 in July, up from June’s 332.568, marking a modest increase. July’s reading continues the upward trend since April’s 332.407 but shows a slight slowdown from May’s 333.979 peak. Market focus remains on inflation dynamics ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 334.1 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 332.8 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 332.6 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |