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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI climbed to 334.98% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US CPI climbed to 334.98% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.06% from July's 333.92% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 11.0%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 333.94%, vs 332.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
334.98
Actual
334.85
Consensus
333.92
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 334.77
Actual: 334.98
Error: -0.21
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (United States) was reported at 334.98% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 334.85% by 0.13%. The reading rose from the previous value of 333.92%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 330.44%, ranging from 324.05% to 336.3% across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 335.07%, up from the prior three at 333.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 62.92%). In September readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 324.84%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ (Oct 30) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI - US
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About CPI — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI All Urban Consumers rose to 336.298 in September, up from August’s 334.131, marking a continued increase in consumer prices. The index advanced steadily from July’s 332.813 through August, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressure. Market participants will watch upcoming data for signs of inflation persistence amid current Federal Reserve policy. Updated 10/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 336.3 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 334.1 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Jul 2026): 332.8 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 195 | 199 | 196.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 2.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 196.75 | 198 | 197 | 196.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1701 | 1722 | 1720 | 1710.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.55 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 3.4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 2.1 | 5 | 3.4 | 2.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 80 | 77 | 75 | 77.50 | Low |