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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to -7.7 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to -7.7 in May 2026, up 2.2 from April's -9.9 reading. The reading matched the -8 consensus. Dallas Fed Services Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Services Index averaged -11.6, vs -1.27 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-7.7
Actual
-8
Consensus
-9.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.51
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -14.15
Actual: -7.7
Error: -6.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Services Index (United States) was reported at -7.70 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -8.00 by 0.30. The reading rose from the previous value of -9.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.33, ranging from -13.30 to 6.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -8.07, down from the prior three at -0.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.74) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.74). In May readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Services Index has averaged -9.97.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.51.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Dallas Fed Services Index - US
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About Dallas Fed Services Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Services Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the service sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the local economy, as well as potential trends and shifts in consumer spending and business activity. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -7.7, consensus -8. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -9.9. Before that (Mar 2026): -13.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bullish USD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.