Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Services Index fell to 4.2 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Dallas Fed Services Index fell to 4.2 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 2.4 from July's 6.6 reading. The reading missed the 5 consensus by 0.8. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.98. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Services Index averaged 4.75, vs -10.3 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
5
Consensus
6.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.51
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 7.88
Actual: 4.2
Error: +3.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Services Index (United States) was reported at 4.20 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.00 by 0.80. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.58, ranging from -13.30 to 6.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.57, up from the prior three at -8.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.92) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.20). In September readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Services Index has averaged -3.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.51.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Dallas Fed Services Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Dallas Fed Services Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Services Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the service sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the local economy, as well as potential trends and shifts in consumer spending and business activity. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.2, consensus 5. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 6.6. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |