Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to 6.6 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to 6.6 in July 2026, up 3.7 from June's 2.9 reading. The print exceeded the 2 consensus by 4.6. Dallas Fed Services Index has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Services Index averaged -2.4, vs -8.8 in the prior 3-month window. Dallas Fed Services Index is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
6.6
Actual
2
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.51
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 6.6
Error: -2.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Services Index (United States) was reported at 6.60 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.00 by 4.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.35, ranging from -13.30 to 6.80 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.60, up from the prior three at -4.60. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.23) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.77). In July readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Services Index has averaged 2.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.51.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Dallas Fed Services Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Dallas Fed Services Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Services Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the service sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the local economy, as well as potential trends and shifts in consumer spending and business activity. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 6.6, consensus 2. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.9. Before that (May 2026): -7.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bullish USD, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |