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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to 4 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Dallas Fed Services Index climbed to 4 in October 2026, up 5.8 from September's -1.8 reading. The print exceeded the -3 consensus by 7. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.88. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Services Index averaged 1.2, vs 0.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4
Actual
-3
Consensus
-1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.05
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -3.9
Actual: 4
Error: -7.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Services Index (United States) was reported at 4.00 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.00 by 7.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.02, ranging from -13.30 to 6.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.13, up from the prior three at 0.60. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.62) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.26). In October readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Services Index has averaged -4.84.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.05.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Dallas Fed Services Index - US
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About Dallas Fed Services Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Services Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the service sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the local economy, as well as potential trends and shifts in consumer spending and business activity. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4, consensus -3. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -1.8. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |