Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 8.1% in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 8.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 8.4% from March's -0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 2.2% consensus by 5.9%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM averaged -0.13%, vs 0.36% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
8.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.2
Actual: 8.1
Error: -5.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (United States) was reported at 8.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.2% by 5.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -9.4% to 15.5% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, up from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.77%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.52%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM has averaged 2.78%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM - US
Loading chart data...
About Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting goods, excluding defense-related items, from one month to the next. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of consumer and business spending, as well as overall economic activity, by tracking the demand for goods that are expected to last for at least three years. It is a key tool for investors and policymakers in assessing the health of the economy and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 8.1 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.45) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.