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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM fell to -4.6% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM fell to -4.6% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 13.0% from April's 8.4% reading. The reading missed the -3.9% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.87%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM averaged 2.2%, vs 0.66% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-4.6
Actual
-3.9
Consensus
8.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.95
Actual: -4.6
Error: +3.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (United States) was reported at -4.6% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3.9% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.56%, ranging from -9.4% to 8.1% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, up from the prior three at -1.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.6%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.52%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM has averaged 0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting goods, excluding defense-related items, from one month to the next. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of consumer and business spending, as well as overall economic activity, by tracking the demand for goods that are expected to last for at least three years. It is a key tool for investors and policymakers in assessing the health of the economy and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -4.6 %, consensus -3.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |