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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 2.2% in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 2.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.9% from August's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 2.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.22%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM averaged 0.7%, vs 1.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.2
Actual
2.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.48
Actual: 2.2
Error: -1.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (United States) was reported at 2.2% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.2% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.92%, ranging from -4.6% to 8.1% across 17 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, down from the prior three at 1.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.3%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.67%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting goods, excluding defense-related items, from one month to the next. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of consumer and business spending, as well as overall economic activity, by tracking the demand for goods that are expected to last for at least three years. It is a key tool for investors and policymakers in assessing the health of the economy and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.2 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.54) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |