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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM climbed to 0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 4.6% from May's -4.3% reading. The reading missed the 2.0% consensus by 1.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.61%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM averaged 1.07%, vs -0.14% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
2
Consensus
-4.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 0.3
Error: +3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2% by 1.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.02%, ranging from -9.4% to 8.1% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.27%, up from the prior three at -0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.07%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.73%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM has averaged -5.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting goods, excluding defense-related items, from one month to the next. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of consumer and business spending, as well as overall economic activity, by tracking the demand for goods that are expected to last for at least three years. It is a key tool for investors and policymakers in assessing the health of the economy and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -4.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 8.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |