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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM held to 1.1% in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM held to 1.1% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.6%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM averaged 0.63%, vs 0.59% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is now the highest in 27 months.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.45
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (United States) was reported at 1.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.6%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.55%, ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, down from the prior three at 0.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has averaged 0.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.22%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation equipment. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as durable goods are typically expensive and have a long lifespan. By excluding transportation equipment, which can be volatile, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of economic growth and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.