US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM: September 2025 Analysis
Table of Contents
The US durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.40% month-over-month in September 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This reading follows a robust 1.10% gain in August and outpaces the average monthly growth of 0.30% over the past 12 months. The data reflects ongoing resilience in core manufacturing demand despite headwinds from tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Steady demand for machinery and electrical equipment contributed positively.
- Defense and aerospace orders remained stable, cushioning volatility.
- Consumer electronics showed moderate growth amid supply chain normalization.
Policy pulse
The 0.40% increase sits below the Federal Reserve’s preferred growth pace to sustain inflation near 2%. The Fed’s recent rate hikes and forward guidance suggest cautious monitoring of manufacturing data as a key inflation barometer.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US Treasury yields edged slightly lower, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points, while the USD index remained flat in the first hour post-release. Equity markets showed muted response, reflecting balanced investor sentiment.
Durable goods orders excluding transportation serve as a core macroeconomic indicator of manufacturing health and capital investment trends. The 0.40% MoM rise in September contrasts with the 1.10% jump in August and the 0.30% average monthly growth since September 2024. This suggests a moderation but continued expansion in factory activity.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening cycle, with the federal funds rate near 5.50%, is designed to cool inflation without triggering a recession. The durable goods data indicates manufacturing is absorbing these tighter financial conditions, though at a slower pace than summer peaks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Government spending on infrastructure and defense continues to support durable goods demand. However, fiscal constraints and budget negotiations may limit further stimulus, placing more weight on private sector investment for growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a risk factor. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific regions add uncertainty, potentially affecting export orders and raw material costs.
Historical comparisons show the September reading is stronger than the 0.20% gains recorded in May and July 2025 but weaker than the 0.50% increase in June. This pattern reflects a typical summer peak followed by a normalization phase heading into fall.
This chart highlights a durable goods sector that is trending upward but at a decelerated pace. The data suggests resilience amid tighter monetary policy and external risks, signaling a manufacturing base that is adapting rather than contracting.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (USD) remained steady, while the 2-year Treasury yield dipped slightly, reflecting investor caution. Equity indices showed minimal volatility, indicating that markets had largely priced in the moderation.
Looking ahead, durable goods orders excluding transportation face a range of possible trajectories influenced by monetary policy, fiscal developments, and external shocks. The baseline scenario anticipates continued moderate growth of 0.30%–0.50% monthly, supported by steady private investment and easing supply constraints.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus and easing geopolitical tensions boost orders by 0.60%–0.80% monthly.
- Technological upgrades and green energy investments accelerate durable goods demand.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Orders grow steadily at 0.30%–0.50% monthly, reflecting balanced monetary policy and stable global conditions.
- Manufacturing adapts to tighter financial conditions without sharp contractions.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Monetary tightening triggers a slowdown, with orders falling 0.10%–0.30% monthly.
- Renewed supply chain disruptions or geopolitical shocks depress demand.
Policy pulse
Federal Reserve officials will closely monitor durable goods data as a gauge of inflationary pressures and economic momentum. A sustained slowdown could prompt a pause or reversal in rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Futures markets show mild volatility ahead of the next Fed meeting, with bond yields and USD sensitive to durable goods trends.
The September 2025 durable goods orders ex transportation data reveals a manufacturing sector that remains resilient but cautious. While growth has moderated from summer highs, the underlying trend supports a steady expansion amid tighter monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical risks. Investors and policymakers should weigh upside potential from fiscal support and technological investment against downside risks from financial tightening and external shocks.
Structural trends toward automation, sustainability, and reshoring will continue to shape durable goods demand over the long run. Monitoring monthly orders alongside broader macro indicators will be critical for anticipating shifts in economic momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
Durable goods orders ex transportation influence several key markets, including equities, bonds, and currencies. The following symbols historically track this indicator closely due to their exposure to manufacturing and economic cycles:
- BA – Boeing’s stock is sensitive to aerospace orders, a major durable goods component.
- USDCAD – Reflects commodity-linked currency movements tied to manufacturing demand.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to risk sentiment shifts driven by economic data.
- GE – General Electric’s industrial exposure links it to durable goods trends.
- EURUSD – A major currency pair sensitive to US economic data and policy.
Indicator vs. BA Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, BA’s stock price has shown a positive correlation with durable goods orders excluding transportation. Periods of rising orders often coincide with BA’s price rallies, reflecting investor confidence in aerospace and industrial demand. The 2025 data’s moderation aligns with BA’s recent sideways trading, indicating cautious optimism.
FAQs
- What is Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM?
- This indicator measures the monthly change in new orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment, reflecting core manufacturing demand.
- How does this data affect monetary policy?
- The Federal Reserve monitors durable goods orders as a gauge of economic momentum and inflation pressures, influencing interest rate decisions.
- Why exclude transportation from durable goods orders?
- Transportation orders are volatile and can distort underlying manufacturing trends; excluding them provides a clearer view of core demand.
Takeaway: The September durable goods orders ex transportation data signals steady manufacturing growth amid tightening financial conditions and global risks, warranting close monitoring for policy and market implications.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The September 2025 durable goods orders ex transportation rose by 0.40% MoM, down from August’s 1.10% but above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This moderation suggests a cooling from the summer’s strong rebound yet maintains positive momentum in core manufacturing sectors.
Compared to May through July, when monthly gains averaged 0.30%, the September figure signals a steady but cautious expansion. The data aligns with mixed signals from other manufacturing indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which hovered near 50, indicating near-neutral growth.