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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 1.3% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 1.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from April's 1.4% reading. The print exceeded the 0.6% consensus by 0.7%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM averaged 0.93%, vs 0.59% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is now the highest in 27 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
0.6
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: 1.3
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (United States) was reported at 1.3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.59%, ranging from 0.1% to 1.3% across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has averaged 0.48%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation equipment. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as durable goods are typically expensive and have a long lifespan. By excluding transportation equipment, which can be volatile, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of economic growth and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |