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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM climbed to 0.5% in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM climbed to 0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's 0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.6% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.76%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 1.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.48
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (United States) was reported at 0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from 0.1% to 1.3% across 16 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, down from the prior three at 1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation equipment. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as durable goods are typically expensive and have a long lifespan. By excluding transportation equipment, which can be volatile, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of economic growth and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |