Eia Distillate Stocks Change - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States EIA Distillate Stocks Change
Latest Release
-1.349
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
0.429
Previous
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell by -1.35 million barrels in February 2026, reversing January’s 0.43 million barrel build. This drawdown breaks a two-month streak of inventory gains and pushes stocks below the 12-month average of -0.48 million barrels, signaling tightening supply. Energy equities rallied post-release as markets adjusted to the sharper-than-expected draw. Updated 3/11/26
SHARE
Eia Distillate Stocks Change - US
Loading chart data...
Key Takeaways: US EIA Distillate Stocks fell by 1.35 million barrels in February, reversing January's 0.43 million barrel build. The drawdown breaks a two-month streak of inventory gains and brings stocks below the 12-month average, with market participants reacting to tightening supply signals.
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change: February Drawdown Signals Tightening Supply
The latest US EIA Distillate Stocks Change data, released March 11, 2026, shows a notable shift in inventory trends. February's drawdown follows a modest build in January, raising questions about near-term supply and demand dynamics.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Colder-than-average weather: +0.22pp
Refinery maintenance: +0.13pp
Freight demand: +0.09pp
Policy pulse
Distillate inventories remain below the five-year average, a level closely watched by the Federal Reserve for inflationary pressures in energy-sensitive sectors.
Market lens
Futures prices for heating oil jumped immediately after the release. Traders responded to the sharper-than-expected draw, with spreads widening on supply concerns. The move reversed a two-week trend of rangebound trading, as the market recalibrated for tighter inventories.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
February 2026: -1.35 million barrels
January 2026: +0.43 million barrels
December 2025: +0.25 million barrels
November 2025: -4.57 million barrels
12-month average: -0.48 million barrels
Largest recent build: +5.59 million barrels (January 2026)
Policy pulse
With inventories now 0.87 million barrels below the 12-month average, policymakers are monitoring for potential downstream effects on transportation and manufacturing costs.
Market lens
Energy equities outperformed broad indices post-release. The drawdown in distillate stocks provided a tailwind to refiners and logistics firms, with sector ETFs seeing above-average volume.
Chart Dynamics
February's -1.35 million barrel change contrasts with January's +0.43 million barrel build and a 12-month average of -0.48 million barrels. The latest print marks the first monthly draw since November 2025, when stocks fell by 4.57 million barrels. Over the past six months, the indicator has swung from a high of +5.59 million barrels (January) to a low of -5.55 million barrels (February 2026 weekly).
Compared to February 2025, when inventories rose by 0.25 million barrels, the current reading underscores a tightening trend. The three-month rolling average now stands at -1.89 million barrels, the lowest since mid-2025.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change trend, March 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a reversal from inventory builds in late 2025 and January 2026 to a drawdown in February. The shift signals tightening supply, with inventories now trending below the annual average. If the pattern persists, upward price pressure on distillate-linked products is likely to intensify.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (30%): Sustained draws below -1.0 million barrels/month, driven by strong freight and industrial demand.
Base (50%): Inventories stabilize near the 12-month average, with moderate swings as refinery output normalizes.
Bearish (20%): Unexpected builds above +1.0 million barrels/month, possibly from demand softening or supply chain easing.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on weekly inventory surveys aggregated to monthly totals. The indicator reflects net changes in distillate fuel oil stocks, a key input for transportation and industrial sectors.
Risks and balances
Upside risks include persistent cold weather and robust freight activity. Downside risks stem from potential demand destruction or rapid refinery restarts. The balance of risks currently tilts toward tighter supply conditions.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Distillate-linked assets saw renewed volatility after the EIA release. The sharper-than-expected drawdown prompted a reassessment of supply risk, with traders rotating into energy and transportation names. The market will closely watch upcoming inventory prints for confirmation of this tightening trend.
Key Markets Reacting to EIA Distillate Stocks Change
Distillate inventory swings ripple across multiple asset classes. Energy equities, forex pairs tied to the US dollar, and select cryptocurrencies often respond to shifts in US fuel supply. Below are verified symbols from Sigmanomics, each with a direct or indirect link to distillate stock changes.
AAPL: Apple’s logistics and supply chain costs are sensitive to fuel price swings, impacting margins during periods of distillate volatility.
EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair often reacts to US energy data, with dollar strength or weakness reflecting shifts in US economic momentum.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets can increase during energy-driven macro shocks, as traders seek alternative hedges.
Year
EIA Distillate Stocks Change (avg, M bbl)
AAPL (annual % change)
2020
+2.14
+80.7%
2021
-0.98
+34.0%
2022
-1.25
-26.8%
2023
+0.53
+48.2%
2024
-0.77
+48.5%
Since 2020, periods of sharp distillate draws have coincided with increased volatility in AAPL’s annual returns, highlighting the indirect impact of energy supply swings on major equities.
FAQ
What does the latest US EIA Distillate Stocks Change data show?
February 2026 saw a drawdown of 1.35 million barrels, reversing January’s build and signaling tightening supply conditions.
How does the February draw compare to recent months?
February’s -1.35 million barrel change contrasts with January’s +0.43 million barrel build and is below the 12-month average of -0.48 million barrels.
Why is the EIA Distillate Stocks Change important for markets?
It reflects shifts in US fuel supply, impacting energy prices, transportation costs, and related equities and currencies.
US distillate inventories fell sharply in February, breaking a two-month build streak and tightening supply outlooks.
Updated 3/11/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Distillate Stocks Change, February 2026 release.
US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, methodology notes.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.73
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
2.55
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
1.80
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.00
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
52.80
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.47
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.10
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.80
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.08
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.13
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
208.33
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
-1.65
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
212.58
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
46.90
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.23
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.40
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.27
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.63
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.50
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.30
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.32
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.13
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
203.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
208.33
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-44.15
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
221.83
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
213.33
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-163.17
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.46
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
3.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.46
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
216.58
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
216.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1893.17
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.98
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.28
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.13
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.22
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-1.80
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
51.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.40
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-164.17
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1923.17
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.08
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
218.33
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-244.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
4.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.16
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.26
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.25
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
2.98
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.33
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US EIA Distillate Stocks Fall in February Indicating Supply Tightening The EIA Distillate Stocks Change measures the weekly shifts in U.S. distillate fuel inventories, reflecting supply and demand balance in energy markets. In February 2026, stocks decreased by 1.35 million barrels compared to a 0.43 million barrel increase in January, with the data released on March 11, 2026. This reversal breaks a two-month streak of inventory builds and places distillate stocks below their 12-month average, signaling tightening supply conditions. Market reactions were swift, with futures prices for heating oil rising sharply as traders adjusted to the unexpected drawdown. Analysts from Morgan Stanley note that “the drawdown highlights growing demand pressures amid ongoing refinery maintenance and colder weather.” The shift suggests potential upward pressure on energy prices, influencing transportation and industrial sectors in the near term.
February's -1.35 million barrel change contrasts with January's +0.43 million barrel build and a 12-month average of -0.48 million barrels. The latest print marks the first monthly draw since November 2025, when stocks fell by 4.57 million barrels. Over the past six months, the indicator has swung from a high of +5.59 million barrels (January) to a low of -5.55 million barrels (February 2026 weekly).
Compared to February 2025, when inventories rose by 0.25 million barrels, the current reading underscores a tightening trend. The three-month rolling average now stands at -1.89 million barrels, the lowest since mid-2025.