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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to -0.2 in June 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to -0.2 in June 2026, down 1.7 from May's 1.5 reading. The print exceeded the -0.5 consensus by 0.3. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1.43. Over the past 3 months, EIA Distillate Stocks Change averaged -1.43, vs -0.06 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
1.502
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.0
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -0.20 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.50 by 0.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.16, ranging from -5.55 to 5.59 across 45 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.27, up from the prior three at -0.52. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.61) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.71). In June readings over the past 3 years, EIA Distillate Stocks Change has averaged 0.48.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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EIA Distillate Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Distillate Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Distillate Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of distillate fuel stocks held by commercial businesses in the United States. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, is a crucial component of the country's energy supply and its availability can have a significant impact on the economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current demand and supply dynamics of distillate fuel, helping investors and analysts make informed decisions in the energy market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 M, consensus -0.5 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.502 M. Before that (May 2026): -2.107 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.