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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to 1.06M in July 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to 1.06M in July 2026, down 0.33M from June's 1.4M reading. The print exceeded the 0.2M consensus by 0.86M. EIA Distillate Stocks Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, EIA Distillate Stocks Change averaged -0.08M, vs -2.25M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.062
Actual
0.2
Consensus
1.395
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.4 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: 1.06
Error: -0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 1.06 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.20 million by 0.86 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.40 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15 million, ranging from -5.55 million to 5.59 million across 42 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.60 million, up from the prior three at -0.08 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.52 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.72 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, EIA Distillate Stocks Change has averaged 1.66 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.40 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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EIA Distillate Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Distillate Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Distillate Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of distillate fuel stocks held by commercial businesses in the United States. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, is a crucial component of the country's energy supply and its availability can have a significant impact on the economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current demand and supply dynamics of distillate fuel, helping investors and analysts make informed decisions in the energy market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.062 M, consensus 0.2 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.951 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.2 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 35 | 34.50 | Low | |