Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to -1.46M in October 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change fell to -1.46M in October 2026, down 3.14M from September's 1.68M reading. The reading missed the -0.9M consensus by 0.56M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.53M. Over the past 3 months, EIA Distillate Stocks Change averaged -0.53M, vs 0.06M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.462
Actual
-0.9
Consensus
1.675
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.27 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.7
Actual: -1.46
Error: +0.76
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -1.46 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.90 million by 0.56 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.68 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.17 million, ranging from -5.55 million to 5.59 million across 42 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.77 million, up from the prior three at -0.91 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.26 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.87 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Distillate Stocks Change has averaged -1.66 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.27 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change - US
Loading chart data...
About EIA Distillate Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Distillate Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of distillate fuel stocks held by commercial businesses in the United States. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, is a crucial component of the country's energy supply and its availability can have a significant impact on the economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current demand and supply dynamics of distillate fuel, helping investors and analysts make informed decisions in the energy market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -1.462 M, consensus -0.9 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 1.675 M. Before that (Oct 2026): -2.527 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |