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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Distillate Stocks Change climbed to 2.09M in September 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased September 2026
US EIA Distillate Stocks Change climbed to 2.09M in September 2026, up 1.29M from August's 0.8M reading. The print exceeded the -0.7M consensus by 2.79M. EIA Distillate Stocks Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, EIA Distillate Stocks Change averaged -0.63M, vs -1.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.087
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
0.796
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.13 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.65
Actual: 2.09
Error: -2.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 2.09 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.70 million by 2.79 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.80 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.21 million, ranging from -5.55 million to 5.59 million across 41 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.22 million, up from the prior three at -1.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.43 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.82 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, EIA Distillate Stocks Change has averaged 0.75 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.13 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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EIA Distillate Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Distillate Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Distillate Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of distillate fuel stocks held by commercial businesses in the United States. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, is a crucial component of the country's energy supply and its availability can have a significant impact on the economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current demand and supply dynamics of distillate fuel, helping investors and analysts make informed decisions in the energy market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.087 M, consensus -0.7 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.796 M. Before that (Aug 2026): -2.228 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |