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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales fell to 3.98M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Existing Home Sales fell to 3.98M in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.08M from July's 4.06M reading. The reading matched the 3.98M consensus. Existing Home Sales has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales averaged 4.07M, vs 4.06M in the prior 3-month window. Existing Home Sales is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.98
Actual
3.98
Consensus
4.06
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7,250.08 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.97
Actual: 3.98
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (United States) was reported at 3.98 million in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.98 million exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.06 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,957,828.22 million, ranging from 3.91 million to 4,270,000.00 million across 23 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1,326,669.35 million, down from the prior three at 1,353,336.09 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,045,652.86 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,981,252.36 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales has averaged 816,003.18 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7,250.08 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Existing Home Sales - US
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About Existing Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of previously owned homes that were sold during a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength and stability of the housing market, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to track trends and make informed decisions related to the real estate market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3,980,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4,060,000 Thousands. Before that (Jun 2026): 4,130,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |