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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales climbed to 3.99M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Existing Home Sales climbed to 3.99M in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.06M from August's 3.93M reading. The reading matched the 3.95M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.07M. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales averaged 4.02M, vs 4.09M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.99
Actual
3.95
Consensus
3.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6,625.03 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -6,246.05
Actual: 3.99
Error: -6,250.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (United States) was reported at 3.99 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.95 million by 0.04 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.93 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,950,436.91 million, ranging from 3.91 million to 4,270,000.00 million across 23 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1,330,002.66 million, up from the prior three at 1,310,002.72 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,038,167.39 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2,005,040.40 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales has averaged 822,003.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6,625.03 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct 19) and Housing Starts (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Existing Home Sales - US
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About Existing Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of previously owned homes that were sold during a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength and stability of the housing market, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to track trends and make informed decisions related to the real estate market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3,990,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3,930,000 Thousands. Before that (Jul 2026): 4,060,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.60 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 8.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 8.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 10.50 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1.60 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.9 | 76.4 | 76.5 | 76.70 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -167 | -29 | -28.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 279.2 | -27.9 | 75.2 | 177.20 | Medium |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.275 | 1.3 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.6 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -4.7 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |