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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales climbed to 3.99M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Existing Home Sales climbed to 3.99M in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.06M from August's 3.93M reading. The reading matched the 3.95M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.07M. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales averaged 4.02M, vs 4.09M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.99
Actual
3.95
Consensus
3.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6,625.03 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -6,246.05
Actual: 3.99
Error: -6,250.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (United States) was reported at 3.99 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.95 million by 0.04 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.93 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2,039,092.95 million, ranging from 3.91 million to 4,270,000.00 million across 22 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1,330,002.66 million, up from the prior three at 1,310,002.72 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,040,140.36 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2,005,040.39 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales has averaged 1,027,502.97 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6,625.03 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Existing Home Sales - US
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About Existing Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of previously owned homes that were sold during a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength and stability of the housing market, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to track trends and make informed decisions related to the real estate market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3,990,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3,930,000 Thousands. Before that (Jul 2026): 4,060,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |