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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales fell to 4.09M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Existing Home Sales fell to 4.09M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1M from May's 4.19M reading. The reading matched the 4.2M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.16M. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales averaged 4.06M, vs 4.12M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.09
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4.19
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6,500 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2,504.21
Actual: 4.09
Error: +2,500.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (United States) was reported at 4.09 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.20 million by 0.11 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.19 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,953,811.66 million, ranging from 3.91 million to 4,270,000.00 million across 21 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1,363,336.09 million, down from the prior three at 2,743,334.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,049,828.33 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,948,334.94 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales has averaged 1,007,502.98 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6,500.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and API Crude Oil Stock Change (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Existing Home Sales - US
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About Existing Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of previously owned homes that were sold during a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength and stability of the housing market, as well as the overall state of the economy. It is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to track trends and make informed decisions related to the real estate market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4,090,000 Thousands. Prior reading (May 2026): 4,190,000 Thousands. Before that (Apr 2026): 4,040,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |