The US Existing Home Sales MoM for November 2025 increased by 1.20%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 0.90% but slightly down from October’s 1.30% growth. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing resilience in the housing market despite headwinds from higher interest rates and inflationary pressures.

Drivers this month

• Shelter demand contributed approximately 0.15 percentage points to growth, supported by stable wage gains.
• Inventory constraints limited upside, with supply remaining tight in key metropolitan areas.
• Mortgage rate volatility dampened buyer enthusiasm but did not stall sales momentum.

Policy pulse

The reading sits above the Federal Reserve’s neutral inflation target zone, indicating moderate housing market strength amid ongoing monetary tightening. The Fed’s recent rate hikes have increased borrowing costs, yet demand remains steady, suggesting some market adaptation.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened 0.30% post-release, while 2-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of sustained Fed hawkishness. The S&P 500 dipped 0.40%, indicating investor caution on growth prospects.

Existing Home Sales are a critical barometer of consumer confidence and economic health. November’s 1.20% MoM increase follows a volatile 2025, where monthly changes ranged from a high of 4.20% in March to a low of -5.90% in April. The 12-month average growth rate stands near 0.30%, underscoring the current print’s relative strength.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, with the federal funds rate now at 5.25%, has increased mortgage rates to an average of 7.10% for a 30-year fixed loan. Despite this, housing demand has shown resilience, supported by steady employment and wage growth. Financial conditions remain tight but manageable.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Federal fiscal policy has been neutral to mildly supportive, with no major housing stimulus enacted recently. Local government incentives for affordable housing continue in some states, but overall budget constraints limit large-scale intervention.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including trade tensions and energy price volatility, pose downside risks to consumer spending and confidence. However, the US housing market has so far absorbed these shocks without sharp declines.

Drivers this month

• Strong wage growth in service sectors boosted affordability.
• Mortgage refinancing activity slowed, focusing demand on purchases.
• Seasonal adjustments favored sales in the South and West regions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: US Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year note up 5 basis points, reflecting increased expectations for Fed rate persistence. The US dollar appreciated modestly, while equity markets showed mild risk-off behavior.

Looking ahead, the housing market faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects continued modest growth of 0.50%–1.00% MoM over the next quarter, assuming stable mortgage rates and steady employment.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Mortgage rates ease below 6.50% due to Fed pause or cut.
• Supply constraints intensify, pushing prices and sales higher.
• Consumer confidence rebounds sharply amid wage gains.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Mortgage rates remain near current levels (7.00%–7.50%).
• Housing supply remains tight but stable.
• Sales grow modestly at 0.50%–1.00% MoM.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Further Fed tightening pushes mortgage rates above 8%.
• Geopolitical shocks reduce consumer spending.
• Sales contract by 0.50%–1.50% MoM.

Policy pulse

Fed policy remains the key variable. Any shift in rate guidance will directly impact mortgage affordability and housing demand. Fiscal policy is unlikely to alter the trajectory significantly in the near term.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Market participants are pricing in a steady Fed stance, with bond yields and the US dollar reflecting cautious optimism. Housing-related equities may see volatility depending on incoming data.

November’s Existing Home Sales MoM data confirms a housing market that is adapting to higher borrowing costs and supply constraints. The 1.20% increase, while modest, signals resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds. Structural trends such as demographic shifts toward younger homebuyers and persistent supply shortages will continue to shape the market’s long-term outlook.

Investors and policymakers should monitor mortgage rate trajectories, consumer confidence, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic environment, with potential for both upside surprises and downside shocks.

Key Markets Likely to React to Existing Home Sales MoM

The Existing Home Sales MoM data influences a range of markets, from equities to fixed income and currencies. Housing market strength often signals broader economic health, affecting interest rates and risk sentiment. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to housing data:

• SPX – S&P 500 index, sensitive to economic growth signals from housing.
• USDCAD – USD/CAD currency pair, influenced by US economic data and commodity prices.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often reacts to risk-on/risk-off shifts linked to economic data.
• DHI – D.R. Horton, a leading homebuilder stock sensitive to housing market trends.
• EURUSD – Euro/US dollar pair, reacts to US economic strength and Fed policy.

Insight: Existing Home Sales vs. SPX Since 2020

Since 2020, monthly changes in Existing Home Sales have shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the S&P 500 index (SPX). Periods of rising home sales often coincide with equity market rallies, reflecting shared drivers like consumer confidence and monetary policy. Notably, sharp dips in home sales during early 2025 aligned with equity market volatility, underscoring the interconnectedness of housing and broader financial markets.

FAQs

What does the US Existing Home Sales MoM figure indicate?

The Existing Home Sales MoM measures the monthly percentage change in the number of previously owned homes sold, reflecting housing market demand and economic health.

How does Existing Home Sales MoM affect the economy?

Strong home sales typically signal consumer confidence and can boost related sectors like construction and finance, influencing GDP growth and monetary policy decisions.

Why is the Existing Home Sales MoM important for investors?

Investors use this data to gauge economic momentum, interest rate trends, and sector performance, impacting equities, bonds, currencies, and real estate investments.

Takeaway: November’s 1.20% rise in Existing Home Sales MoM signals a housing market that remains resilient amid tightening financial conditions and geopolitical risks, supporting a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.