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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales MoM climbed to 1.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Existing Home Sales MoM climbed to 1.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 4.7% from August's -3.2% reading. The print exceeded the -0.3% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.39%. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales MoM averaged -1.85%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 64th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1
Actual: 1.5
Error: -2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales MoM (United States) was reported at 1.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.3% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.1%, ranging from -8.4% to 5.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.73%, down from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.39%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.27%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales MoM has averaged 0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Existing Home Sales MoM - US
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About Existing Home Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of previously owned homes sold in a given month. This data is important for understanding the current state of the housing market and can provide insights into consumer confidence and overall economic health. A higher MoM percentage indicates a stronger demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowdown in the housing market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the real estate market and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.5 M, consensus -0.3 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -1.7 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |