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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Existing Home Sales MoM fell to -2.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Existing Home Sales MoM fell to -2.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.3% from July's -1.7% reading. The reading missed the -0.2% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.24%. Over the past 3 months, Existing Home Sales MoM averaged -2.05%, vs -0.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
-1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1.22
Actual: -2
Error: +0.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Existing Home Sales MoM (United States) was reported at -2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 1.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.11%, ranging from -8.4% to 5.1% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.03%, down from the prior three at 1.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.24%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.36%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Existing Home Sales MoM has averaged -1.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.56%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Existing Home Sales MoM - US
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About Existing Home Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Existing Home Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of previously owned homes sold in a given month. This data is important for understanding the current state of the housing market and can provide insights into consumer confidence and overall economic health. A higher MoM percentage indicates a stronger demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowdown in the housing market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the real estate market and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -2 M, consensus -0.2 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1.7 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -2.4 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |