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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices MoM fell to -0.6% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Export Prices MoM fell to -0.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.8% from May's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the -0.4% consensus by 0.2%. Export Prices MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices MoM averaged 2.3%, vs 1.0% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices MoM is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.17
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.82 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices MoM (United States) was reported at -0.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.76%, ranging from -0.6% to 3.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, up from the prior three at 0.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.09%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices MoM has averaged -0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Export Prices MoM - US
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About Export Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and its overall economic health. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the impact of international trade on a country's economy. A positive change in export prices MoM indicates an increase in demand for a country's exports, while a negative change may suggest a decline in global demand or a decrease in the competitiveness of a country's exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.82) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |