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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices MoM fell to 1.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Export Prices MoM fell to 1.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 2.2% from April's 3.5% reading. The print exceeded the 1.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.62%. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices MoM averaged 2.13%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.2
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices MoM (United States) was reported at 1.3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.88%, ranging from 0% to 3.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.03%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.98%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.67%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices MoM has averaged -0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Export Prices MoM - US
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About Export Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and its overall economic health. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the impact of international trade on a country's economy. A positive change in export prices MoM indicates an increase in demand for a country's exports, while a negative change may suggest a decline in global demand or a decrease in the competitiveness of a country's exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |