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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices MoM fell to -1.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Export Prices MoM fell to -1.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.6% from June's -0.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 1.5%. Export Prices MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 1.75% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices MoM is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-1.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.66 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.18
Actual: -1.3
Error: +1.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices MoM (United States) was reported at -1.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.6%, ranging from -1.3% to 3.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.2%, down from the prior three at 1.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.61%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices MoM has averaged -0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.66%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Export Prices MoM - US
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About Export Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and its overall economic health. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the impact of international trade on a country's economy. A positive change in export prices MoM indicates an increase in demand for a country's exports, while a negative change may suggest a decline in global demand or a decrease in the competitiveness of a country's exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.3 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |