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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices MoM climbed to 3.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Export Prices MoM climbed to 3.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.8% from March's 1.5% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 2.2%. Export Prices MoM has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices MoM averaged 1.23%, vs 0.15% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices MoM is now the highest in 39 months.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 3.3
Error: -1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices MoM (United States) was reported at 3.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.63%, ranging from -0.9% to 3.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, up from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.11%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.63%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices MoM has averaged 1.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Export Prices MoM - US
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About Export Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and its overall economic health. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the impact of international trade on a country's economy. A positive change in export prices MoM indicates an increase in demand for a country's exports, while a negative change may suggest a decline in global demand or a decrease in the competitiveness of a country's exports.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.