US Export Prices MoM: December 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The US Export Prices MoM for December 2025 registered a flat 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus estimate and matching November’s 0.10% gain. This stagnation marks a pause in export price growth amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report contextualizes the latest reading against historical trends, monetary and fiscal policy shifts, and external risks. We also explore implications for financial markets and structural trade dynamics.
Table of Contents
The US export prices MoM reading of 0.00% in December 2025 signals a halt in export price inflation after a moderate rise in prior months. This stagnation contrasts with the 0.30% gain recorded in September and the 0.50% spike in July, as per the Sigmanomics database. The flat reading reflects subdued global demand and persistent cost pressures, amid a backdrop of tightening monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Weaker global demand for US manufactured goods.
- Stabilization of commodity prices, especially energy and metals.
- Strong US dollar limiting export price competitiveness.
Policy pulse
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate hikes have strengthened the USD, dampening export price growth. The flat reading aligns with the Fed’s inflation-targeting stance, as export prices remain contained despite cost pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The USD Index (DXY) strengthened 0.15% post-release, reflecting safe-haven demand amid export price stagnation. Short-term Treasury yields edged higher, signaling cautious optimism.
Export prices are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting global demand and US competitiveness. The December 0.00% MoM reading contrasts with the 12-month average of approximately 0.05% growth, highlighting a pause in export price inflation. This stagnation coincides with a 2.10% YoY increase in export prices, indicating moderate annual inflation but no acceleration.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary stance, with the federal funds rate near 5.50%, has strengthened the USD, making US exports more expensive abroad. Financial conditions remain tight, with the 2-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.80%, pressuring export price growth.
Fiscal policy & government budget
US fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit of 4.20% of GDP. However, government spending has limited direct impact on export prices, which are more sensitive to global demand and currency fluctuations.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to disrupt supply chains, limiting export price growth. Energy price volatility has eased, reducing cost-push inflation on export prices.
Drivers this month
- USD appreciation by 1.20% since November, reducing export price competitiveness.
- Commodity price stabilization, with crude oil prices steady near $75/barrel.
- Moderate easing in global supply chain bottlenecks.
Policy pulse
The Fed’s rate hikes have curtailed inflationary pressures, with export prices reflecting this moderation. The flat MoM reading aligns with the Fed’s goal of bringing inflation back to 2% over the medium term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.15% within the first hour, while the S&P 500 (SPX) dipped 0.30%, reflecting investor caution on export growth prospects.
This chart highlights a clear trend of export price stabilization after a volatile mid-year. The flat December reading suggests a pause in export price inflation, influenced by a stronger USD and easing commodity costs. This stabilization may signal a cautious environment for US exporters heading into 2026.
Looking ahead, export prices face a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline scenario projects modest export price growth of 0.10% MoM over the next quarter, supported by gradual global demand recovery and stable commodity prices. However, risks include renewed geopolitical tensions or a sharper USD appreciation, which could push export prices lower.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand surges due to easing supply chain constraints.
- USD weakens by 2-3%, boosting export competitiveness.
- Export prices rise 0.30-0.50% MoM in early 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Global demand grows moderately.
- USD remains stable or slightly stronger.
- Export prices grow 0.05-0.10% MoM.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks disrupt trade.
- USD strengthens beyond 3%.
- Export prices decline 0.10-0.30% MoM.
The December 2025 US Export Prices MoM reading of 0.00% signals a pause in export price inflation amid a stronger dollar and subdued global demand. While this stabilizes inflationary pressures, it also highlights challenges for US exporters competing internationally. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks remain key variables shaping export price trajectories in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Export Prices MoM
Export prices influence currency strength, equity sectors tied to trade, and commodity-linked assets. Markets sensitive to trade flows and USD fluctuations will likely react to future export price releases.
- SPX – US equity benchmark sensitive to export-driven earnings.
- USDCAD – Commodity-linked currency pair impacted by export price shifts.
- EURUSD – Major currency pair reflecting USD strength.
- BTCUSD – Crypto asset reacting to risk sentiment changes.
- TSLA – Export-oriented stock sensitive to global demand.
Insight: Export Prices vs. USDCAD Since 2020
Since 2020, US export prices and the USDCAD pair have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising export prices often coincide with USDCAD depreciation, reflecting weaker USD competitiveness. The recent flattening of export prices aligns with a 1.50% appreciation in USDCAD over the past month, underscoring currency influence on trade dynamics.
FAQs
- What does the US Export Prices MoM indicate?
- The US Export Prices MoM measures monthly changes in prices received by US exporters, reflecting trade competitiveness and inflation pressures.
- How does export price stagnation affect the economy?
- Stagnant export prices can signal weaker global demand and reduce US exporters’ pricing power, potentially slowing economic growth.
- Why is the USD important for export prices?
- A stronger USD makes US goods more expensive abroad, often leading to slower export price growth or declines.
Key takeaway: The flat December export price reading highlights a cautious trade environment shaped by a strong dollar and global uncertainties, with moderate growth expected in 2026.
The December 2025 US Export Prices MoM reading of 0.00% contrasts with November’s 0.10% and the 12-month average of 0.05%. This flat print follows a volatile summer, where July’s 0.50% spike marked the highest monthly gain since mid-2024. The recent plateau suggests export price pressures are easing amid a stronger dollar and softer global demand.
Historically, export prices have fluctuated between -0.90% in June 2025 and 0.50% in July 2025, reflecting sensitivity to commodity cycles and trade dynamics. The current flat reading signals a potential stabilization phase after a period of volatility.