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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices YoY climbed to 11.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Export Prices YoY climbed to 11.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.4% from April's 8.8% reading. The print exceeded the 10.4% consensus by 0.8%. Export Prices YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices YoY averaged 5.97%, vs 2.85% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices YoY is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
11.2
Actual
10.4
Consensus
8.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 11.28
Actual: 11.2
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 11.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.4% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 8.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.6%, ranging from 2.2% to 11.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.83%, up from the prior three at 3.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.98%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.37%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices YoY has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Jul 13) and OPEC Meeting (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Export Prices YoY - US
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About Export Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global market trends on its trade performance. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate potential shifts in inflation, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 11.2 %, consensus 10.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128.5 | 139.50 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |