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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices YoY climbed to 8.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Export Prices YoY climbed to 8.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 3.4% from March's 5.4% reading. The print exceeded the 6.6% consensus by 2.2%. Export Prices YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices YoY averaged 3.9%, vs 3.45% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices YoY is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
8.8
Actual
6.6
Consensus
5.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 6.9
Actual: 8.8
Error: -1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 8.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.6% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.54%, ranging from 1.7% to 8.8% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.97%, up from the prior three at 3.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.96%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.47%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices YoY has averaged 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Export Prices YoY - US
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About Export Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global market trends on its trade performance. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate potential shifts in inflation, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 8.8 %, consensus 6.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 5.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.82) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.