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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices YoY fell to 8.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Export Prices YoY fell to 8.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 2.0% from June's 10.2% reading. The reading missed the 9.6% consensus by 1.4%. Export Prices YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices YoY averaged 10.7%, vs 5.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.2
Actual
9.6
Consensus
10.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 9.83
Actual: 8.2
Error: +1.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 8.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.6% by 1.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 10.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.09%, ranging from 2.6% to 11.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 9.87%, up from the prior three at 4.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.35%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices YoY has averaged 3.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Export Prices YoY - US
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About Export Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global market trends on its trade performance. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate potential shifts in inflation, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 8.2 %, consensus 9.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 10.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 11.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |