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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Export Prices YoY climbed to 11.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Export Prices YoY climbed to 11.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.3% from August's 9.3% reading. The print exceeded the 9.4% consensus by 2.2%. Export Prices YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices YoY averaged 8.4%, vs 10.07% in the prior 3-month window. Export Prices YoY is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
11.6
Actual
9.4
Consensus
9.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.08
Actual: 11.6
Error: -2.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 11.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9.4% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.16%, ranging from 2.6% to 11.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 9.47%, down from the prior three at 10.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.36%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Export Prices YoY - US
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About Export Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Export Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global market trends on its trade performance. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate potential shifts in inflation, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 11.6 %, consensus 9.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 8.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |