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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Exports fell to 317.7B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Exports fell to 317.7B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 10.5B from April's 328.2B reading. The reading matched the 314B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 295.01B. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 324B, vs 299.08B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
317.7
Actual
314
Consensus
328.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.6 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 313
Actual: 317.7
Error: -4.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (United States) was reported at 317.70 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 314.00 billion by 3.70 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 328.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 819.03 billion, ranging from 277.30 billion to 3,508.70 billion across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 319.87 billion, up from the prior three at 293.83 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,168.05 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,568.05 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 1,800.69 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.60 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports - US
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About Exports — United States
DEFINITION
US Exports of Goods & Services fell to $3350.605000B in September 2025 from August’s $3366.868000B, marking a slight month-over-month decline. The reading remains 8.7% above July 2023’s $3082.082B, indicating a positive year-over-year trend despite slowing momentum. Market reaction was muted as trade headwinds persist and bond yields held steady. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3,508.7 M. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3,350.6 M. Before that (Jul 2025): 3,366.9 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |