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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Exports climbed to 315.2B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Exports climbed to 315.2B in August 2026, released October 2026, up 4.5B from July's 310.7B reading. The reading matched the 314.6B consensus. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 312.7B, vs 321.9B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
315.2
Actual
314.6
Consensus
310.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.7 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 315.83
Actual: 315.2
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (United States) was reported at 315.20 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 314.60 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 310.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 819.63 billion, ranging from 280.80 billion to 3,794.65 billion across 13 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 313.53 billion, down from the prior three at 319.87 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,208.96 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,604.76 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 1,796.47 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.70 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports - US
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About Exports — United States
DEFINITION
US Exports of Goods & Services fell to $3350.605000B in September 2025 from August’s $3366.868000B, marking a slight month-over-month decline. The reading remains 8.7% above July 2023’s $3082.082B, indicating a positive year-over-year trend despite slowing momentum. Market reaction was muted as trade headwinds persist and bond yields held steady. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3,794.6 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3,508.7 M. Before that (Oct 2025): 3,350.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.72) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |