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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Exports fell to 310.7B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Exports fell to 310.7B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 4B from June's 314.7B reading. The reading matched the 308.5B consensus. Exports has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 319.83B, vs 312.6B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
310.7
Actual
308.5
Consensus
314.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.15 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 309.23
Actual: 310.7
Error: -1.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (United States) was reported at 310.70 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 308.50 billion by 2.20 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 314.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,049.86 billion, ranging from 280.80 billion to 3,752.27 billion across 13 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 314.37 billion, down from the prior three at 1,464.72 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,364.74 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,567.15 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 285.93 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.15 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports - US
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About Exports — United States
DEFINITION
US Exports of Goods & Services fell to $3350.605000B in September 2025 from August’s $3366.868000B, marking a slight month-over-month decline. The reading remains 8.7% above July 2023’s $3082.082B, indicating a positive year-over-year trend despite slowing momentum. Market reaction was muted as trade headwinds persist and bond yields held steady. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3,752.3 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3,508.7 M. Before that (Oct 2025): 3,350.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.75) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |