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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Factory Orders MoM climbed to 0.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Factory Orders MoM climbed to 0.9% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.1% from June's -0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.6% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.19%. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.6
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.35
Actual: 0.9
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Factory Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 0.9% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.87%, ranging from -1.3% to 4.8% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, up from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.78%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.32%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Factory Orders MoM has averaged 1.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Factory Orders MoM - US
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About Factory Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Factory Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods in a specific month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as well as potential future trends in consumer spending and business investment. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact stock markets, interest rates, and inflation. A positive Factory Orders MoM reading indicates an increase in demand for goods, while a negative reading suggests a decline in orders, which can have significant implications for the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |