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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Factory Orders MoM fell to 0.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Factory Orders MoM fell to 0.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from July's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the 0.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.67%. Over the past 3 months, Factory Orders MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 2.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Factory Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 0.1% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.79%, ranging from -1.3% to 4.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 1.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.71%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.43%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Factory Orders MoM - US
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About Factory Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Factory Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods in a specific month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as well as potential future trends in consumer spending and business investment. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact stock markets, interest rates, and inflation. A positive Factory Orders MoM reading indicates an increase in demand for goods, while a negative reading suggests a decline in orders, which can have significant implications for the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |