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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Factory Orders MoM climbed to 4.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Factory Orders MoM climbed to 4.8% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 3.0% from March's 1.8% reading. The reading matched the 4.6% consensus. Factory Orders MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Factory Orders MoM averaged 0.53%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. Factory Orders MoM is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
4.6
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.6
Actual: 4.8
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Factory Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 4.8% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.12%, ranging from -4.8% to 4.8% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.56%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.56%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Factory Orders MoM has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Factory Orders MoM - US
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About Factory Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Factory Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods in a specific month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as well as potential future trends in consumer spending and business investment. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact stock markets, interest rates, and inflation. A positive Factory Orders MoM reading indicates an increase in demand for goods, while a negative reading suggests a decline in orders, which can have significant implications for the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |