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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 1.6% in Q1 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterlyReleased May 2026
US GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 1.6% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 1.1% from December's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 2.0% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.7%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate QoQ averaged 1.07%, vs 2.85% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
2
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.65
Actual: 1.6
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.6% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.2%, ranging from -0.5% to 4.3% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.23%, down from the prior three at 3.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.28%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - US
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.