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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 3.4% in Q3 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterlyReleased October 2026
US GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 3.4% in Q3 2026, released October 2026, up 1.2% from June's 2.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate QoQ has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate QoQ averaged 1.85%, vs 1.73% in the prior 3-month window. GDP Growth Rate QoQ is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.2
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.38
Actual: 3.4
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (United States) was reported at 3.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.08%, ranging from 0.7% to 4.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.37%, up from the prior three at 1.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.05%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.48%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - US
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |