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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Sales QoQ fell to 1.7% in Q3 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterlyReleased October 2026
US GDP Sales QoQ fell to 1.7% in Q3 2026, released October 2026, down 1.1% from June's 2.8% reading. The reading missed the 3.5% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.75%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Sales QoQ averaged 2.5%, vs 1.87% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
3.5
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.65
Actual: 1.7
Error: +1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Sales QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.5% by 1.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.06%, ranging from 0.4% to 4.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.23%, up from the prior three at 1.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.64%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Sales QoQ - US
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About GDP Sales QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
GDP Sales QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insights into the overall economic performance of a country and is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the health of an economy. A positive QoQ growth in GDP sales indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for decision-making and forecasting in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |