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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Goods Trade Balance climbed to -82.4B in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Goods Trade Balance climbed to -82.4B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.9B from March's -85.3B reading. The reading matched the -86.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -109.9B. Goods Trade Balance is now the highest in 34 months.
Latest Release
-82.4
Actual
-86.7
Consensus
-85.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.05 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -86.45
Actual: -82.4
Error: -4.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -82.40 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -86.70 billion by 4.30 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -85.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -89.60 billion, ranging from -103.60 billion to -82.40 billion across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -83.80 billion, up from the prior three at -95.39 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.79 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 34.94 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance has averaged -89.81 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.05 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance - US
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About Goods Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of physical goods. It provides valuable insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate the strength of its economy. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -82.4 B, consensus -86.7 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -87.87 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -84.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.