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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Goods Trade Balance fell to -134.9B in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Goods Trade Balance fell to -134.9B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.83B from August's -132.07B reading. The reading matched the -130B consensus. Goods Trade Balance has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Goods Trade Balance averaged -125.7B, vs -91.95B in the prior 3-month window. Goods Trade Balance is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-134.9
Actual
-130
Consensus
-132.07
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.05 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -139.35
Actual: -134.9
Error: -4.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -134.90 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -130.00 billion by 4.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -132.07 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -108.95 billion, ranging from -134.90 billion to -82.40 billion across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -128.77 billion, down from the prior three at -89.13 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 21.36 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 35.67 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.05 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance - US
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About Goods Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of physical goods. It provides valuable insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate the strength of its economy. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -134.9 B, consensus -130 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -132.6 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -118.8 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |