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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.5% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.5% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, down 0.6% from March's 2.1% reading. The reading missed the 2.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.83%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 1.85%, vs 1.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.13
Actual: 1.5
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.34%, ranging from 0.7% to 4.3% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.73%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.47%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - US
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
US Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 1.500000% for Q2 2026, missing the 2.100000% estimate. This marks a decline from Q1 2026’s 2.100000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Markets are digesting the softer output ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve policy discussions. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |