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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.5% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.5% in Q2 2026, released August 2026, down 0.6% from March's 2.1% reading. The reading matched the 1.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.98%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 1.8%, vs 1.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.5
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.42
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.5% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.11%, ranging from 0.7% to 4.3% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.7%, up from the prior three at 1.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.56%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - US
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
US Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 1.500000% for Q2 2026, matching consensus exactly. This marks a slowdown from Q1's 2.100000%, indicating a deceleration in economic growth. Markets remain focused on upcoming Federal Reserve communications amid steady GDP expansion. Updated 8/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -1.12 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.84 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.31 | 1.31 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1780 | 1785.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 208.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 47.4 | 30.5 | 30.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 206 | 206 | 206.13 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 49 | 48.00 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.4 | 76.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |