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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.6% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.6% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 1.1% from December's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 2.0% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.7%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 1.07%, vs 2.85% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
2
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.65
Actual: 1.6
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.6% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.2%, ranging from -0.5% to 4.3% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.23%, down from the prior three at 3.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - US
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
The US Gross Domestic Product QoQ for Q1 2026 came in at 1.600000%, missing the 2.000000% estimate but rising from 0.500000% in Q4 2025. This marks a moderate acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter, indicating steady economic expansion. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Updated 5/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.