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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US House Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from March's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.07%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index MoM averaged 0.05%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.1%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In June readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index MoM has averaged -0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul 21) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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House Price Index MoM - US
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About House Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of residential properties in a given market from one month to the next. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help investors, policymakers, and individuals make informed decisions about buying or selling real estate. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to track trends and identify potential risks or opportunities in the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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