US House Price Index MoM: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Implications
The US House Price Index (HPI) MoM for November 2025 registered a flat 0.00%, missing the 0.30% estimate and down from October’s 0.40%. This pause follows a volatile six-month period marked by declines and rebounds. The stagnation signals cooling housing momentum amid tighter monetary policy and shifting financial conditions. Regional disparities persist, while macro risks from fiscal tightening and geopolitical tensions weigh on market sentiment. Forward scenarios range from mild recovery to further stagnation, hinging on inflation trends and Fed actions.
Table of Contents
The US House Price Index (HPI) MoM for November 2025 came in at 0.00%, unchanged from October’s 0.40% gain and below the consensus estimate of 0.30%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks a notable pause after a series of monthly fluctuations: June (-0.40%), August (-0.20%), and September (-0.10%) declines preceded October’s rebound. The flat reading suggests a plateau in home price appreciation amid ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
Nationally aggregated, the HPI masks significant regional variation. Coastal metros like San Francisco and New York continue to see modest price gains near 0.20% MoM, while interior markets such as the Midwest and parts of the South report flat or slightly negative trends. The last six months reveal a cooling trend from early 2025’s robust gains, reflecting seasonal effects and tightening credit conditions.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Housing price dynamics remain intertwined with inflation, wage growth, and employment. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 3.10% YoY in October, while average hourly earnings rose 0.30% MoM. Unemployment remains low at 3.70%, supporting demand, but real income growth is constrained by persistent inflation. Mortgage rates have hovered near 7%, dampening affordability and buyer enthusiasm.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance continues to weigh on housing. The Fed Funds Rate stands at 5.50%, unchanged since September, as the central bank balances inflation control with growth risks. Mortgage rates, closely tied to 10-year Treasury yields, have remained elevated, limiting refinancing activity and new mortgage originations. Financial conditions indices reflect tightening credit availability, particularly for first-time buyers.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Federal fiscal tightening, including reduced pandemic-era support and rising debt service costs, constrains disposable income. The government budget deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, but higher interest payments and potential tax adjustments may reduce household spending power. Local property tax policies and incentives also influence regional housing affordability and price trends.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global uncertainties, including ongoing trade tensions and energy price volatility, add risk to the housing outlook. Recent geopolitical frictions in Eastern Europe and Asia have pressured commodity prices, indirectly affecting construction costs and mortgage markets. Supply chain disruptions persist, impacting new housing supply and renovation activity.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs stabilized, contributing 0.00 pp to the index.
- Mortgage rate pressures limited buyer activity, subtracting approximately -0.10 pp.
- New home supply constraints offset some demand weakness, adding 0.05 pp.
Policy pulse
The flat HPI reading sits below the Fed’s inflation target of 2%, indicating cooling housing inflation. This may reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten further but keeps the door open for cautious policy adjustments depending on broader inflation data.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened 0.15% post-release, while 2-year Treasury yields edged up 3 basis points, reflecting modest hawkish sentiment. Mortgage REITs like AMT saw a slight dip, mirroring concerns over housing demand.
This chart highlights a stabilization phase in US house prices after months of volatility. The trend suggests a market balancing act between affordability headwinds and persistent demand, signaling potential sideways movement in the near term.
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
Inflation moderates faster than expected, allowing the Fed to pause or cut rates by mid-2026. Mortgage rates decline below 6%, boosting affordability and demand. Regional supply constraints tighten further, pushing HPI MoM to average 0.30% gains over the next six months.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
Monetary policy remains steady, inflation hovers near 3%, and mortgage rates stay elevated around 7%. Housing demand remains subdued but stable, with HPI MoM fluctuating between 0.00% and 0.10%, reflecting a plateau in price appreciation.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
Economic growth slows sharply due to fiscal tightening and geopolitical shocks. Mortgage rates rise above 7.50%, pushing affordability to new lows. Housing demand contracts, leading to negative HPI MoM prints averaging -0.20% over the next quarter.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term trends such as urbanization, demographic shifts, and remote work continue to reshape housing demand. Supply-side constraints, including labor shortages and zoning restrictions, limit new construction. These factors support a baseline of moderate price growth despite cyclical headwinds.
The November 2025 US House Price Index MoM reading of 0.00% signals a pause in the housing market’s recent momentum. This reflects a complex interplay of tighter monetary policy, fiscal constraints, and external risks. While regional disparities persist, the overall market appears to be in a consolidation phase. Forward risks skew slightly to the downside, but structural factors and potential policy easing could support a moderate rebound. Market participants should watch inflation trends, Fed guidance, and mortgage rates closely for directional cues.
Key Markets Likely to React to House Price Index MoM
The US housing market’s health directly influences several tradable assets. Mortgage REITs like AMT track mortgage demand and refinancing activity. The US Dollar Index (DXYUSD) often reacts to Fed policy shifts prompted by housing data. Treasury yields, especially the 2-year note (TY), reflect interest rate expectations tied to inflation and housing trends. On the crypto side, stablecoins like USDTUSD may see flows shift as investors rebalance portfolios amid housing market uncertainty. Lastly, the EUR/USD pair (EURUSD) often moves inversely to US housing sentiment due to its Fed rate sensitivity.
Indicator vs. AMT Since 2020
Since 2020, the US House Price Index MoM and AMT stock price have shown a positive correlation, with AMT rallying during periods of rising house prices and mortgage refinancing booms. The 2025 plateau in HPI coincides with AMT’s recent volatility, underscoring sensitivity to housing market shifts and interest rate changes.
FAQs
- What does the US House Price Index MoM indicate?
- The HPI MoM measures monthly changes in home prices, reflecting housing market strength and affordability trends.
- How does the HPI affect monetary policy?
- Rising house prices can fuel inflation, influencing the Fed’s interest rate decisions to maintain price stability.
- Why is the November 2025 HPI flat?
- Elevated mortgage rates, fiscal tightening, and regional disparities have balanced out demand and supply, leading to a pause in price growth.
Key takeaway: The flat November HPI MoM reading signals a housing market at a crossroads, with future direction hinging on inflation, Fed policy, and affordability dynamics.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Key Markets Likely to React to House Price Index MoM
The US housing market’s health directly influences several tradable assets. Mortgage REITs like AMT track mortgage demand and refinancing activity. The US Dollar Index (DXYUSD) often reacts to Fed policy shifts prompted by housing data. Treasury yields, especially the 2-year note (TY), reflect interest rate expectations tied to inflation and housing trends. On the crypto side, stablecoins like USDTUSD may see flows shift as investors rebalance portfolios amid housing market uncertainty. Lastly, the EUR/USD pair (EURUSD) often moves inversely to US housing sentiment due to its Fed rate sensitivity.
The November 2025 HPI MoM reading of 0.00% contrasts with October’s 0.40% and the 12-month average of approximately 0.05%. This flat print signals a halt in the recent upward momentum after a volatile summer marked by declines of -0.40% (June) and -0.20% (August). The data suggest a plateauing phase in house price growth, reflecting a balance between demand pressures and affordability constraints.
Regional breakdowns show that while coastal urban centers maintain modest gains, interior and rust belt regions experience stagnation or slight declines. This divergence underscores the uneven recovery and the influence of local economic conditions and supply constraints.